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News & ArtsWednesday, December 9, 2009
Politics Rep. Brian Baird (D-Vancouver) is Retiring
Posted by Eli Sanders on Wed, Dec 9, 2009 at 5:02 PM
He hated the Iraq war (until he decided he loved Bush's surge), he voted against health insurance reform last month, and now he's retiring. Says The Fix:
Baird, first elected to the 3rd district in 1998, had solidified his hold on this southwestern Washington seat over the past decade. He had been re-elected with more than 60 percent of the vote regularly despite the fact that then President George W. Bush carried the seat in 2000 and 2004. President Barack Obama won the district 53 percent to 45 percent last November.Given the demographics, Republicans are likely to target Baird's seat in 2010. More broadly, Baird's retirement will increase chatter within Democratic circles that potentially vulnerable members are jumping ship rather than running the risk of losing their seats in what is shaping up to be a tough 2010 election.
2
And why in the world would the Dems be facing a tough election year in 2010?
Could it be because of right-wing "moderates" like Baird that sabotage the party with voters?
Could it be because of right-wing "moderates" like Baird that sabotage the party with voters?
3
Yikes. I hate to say it, but the Dems don't have a chance at this seat in 2010. Have another look at those Clark County November returns: 54% yes on 1033, 54% no on 71.
4
2
no.
but it makes liberals feel better to think so.
rather than face the fact that their pet projects are seriously flawed and unpopular and really really poorly executed.
no wonder only 20% of Americans self identify as 'liberal'.
no.
but it makes liberals feel better to think so.
rather than face the fact that their pet projects are seriously flawed and unpopular and really really poorly executed.
no wonder only 20% of Americans self identify as 'liberal'.
5
@1 - And that's a good thing.
Baird got 64% last time. He could have voted for a least a few progressive issues, and still won re-election easily. If he knew he was going to retire, he didn't even need to worry about re-election. Thus, his recent votes against decent health care reform and against the estate tax were likely really his personal views, not politically motivated. Good riddance.
And, no, I wouldn't prefer a Republican over a Democrat who only sometimes votes progressive. But I'll take a Republican over a Democrats who never votes progressive, because we can try to take the Republican out rather than hear all about how we have to just suck it up and support a worthless Democrat.
Baird got 64% last time. He could have voted for a least a few progressive issues, and still won re-election easily. If he knew he was going to retire, he didn't even need to worry about re-election. Thus, his recent votes against decent health care reform and against the estate tax were likely really his personal views, not politically motivated. Good riddance.
And, no, I wouldn't prefer a Republican over a Democrat who only sometimes votes progressive. But I'll take a Republican over a Democrats who never votes progressive, because we can try to take the Republican out rather than hear all about how we have to just suck it up and support a worthless Democrat.
6
@3: Another example of political analysis via placing-head-up-ass.
Here are actual numbers for actual Democratic candidates (not initiatives) for the entire 3rd District (not just Clark County):
Barack Obama: 54%
Christine Gregoire (2008): 50%
John Kerry: 49%
Christine Gregoire (2004): 48%
Patty Murray: 52%
Roughly 50% for the Democrats. Notably better for Obama. That makes for a very competitive race, not a "Dems don't have a chance" race.
In fact, reality is probably even better than these numbers seem to show, because all these Democrats were running statewide. In other words, they were aiming primarily at voters in King County and other urban centers, which likely cost them some votes in more rural areas. A candidate for the 3rd district can aim directly at 3rd district voters, and still remain a Democrat -- even a progressive one -- while emphasizing issues and using language that appeal to relatively conservative and rural areas. (Note the word "relatively"; the 3rd district is actually very close politically to the state as a whole, just not to the 7th district).
Here are actual numbers for actual Democratic candidates (not initiatives) for the entire 3rd District (not just Clark County):
Barack Obama: 54%
Christine Gregoire (2008): 50%
John Kerry: 49%
Christine Gregoire (2004): 48%
Patty Murray: 52%
Roughly 50% for the Democrats. Notably better for Obama. That makes for a very competitive race, not a "Dems don't have a chance" race.
In fact, reality is probably even better than these numbers seem to show, because all these Democrats were running statewide. In other words, they were aiming primarily at voters in King County and other urban centers, which likely cost them some votes in more rural areas. A candidate for the 3rd district can aim directly at 3rd district voters, and still remain a Democrat -- even a progressive one -- while emphasizing issues and using language that appeal to relatively conservative and rural areas. (Note the word "relatively"; the 3rd district is actually very close politically to the state as a whole, just not to the 7th district).
8
@7 - Hard to claim a Democrat can't win this seat, when a Muslim-socialist-terrorist Democrat gets 54%. Even an elitist-windsurfer-traitor Democrat got 49%.
11
As someone who grew up in SW Washington I can say pretty strongly this seat won't flip if only because, despite being horribly backwater socially, the 3rd district is strong union territory. They support democrats because it helps their bottom line, which is how Baird kept cruising to reelection.
12
Good fucking riddance. Baird has not been a helpful member of Congress. He is is obnoxious and consistently rated as one of the worst bosses on Capitol Hill.
13
I emailed him last month and promised to work for any primary challenger unless he got on board with health care. That was easy!
Who's next!
Who's next!
14
@2 If you want to run the country, you have to have people in yr caucus who are way, way over on the other end of the spectrum from you. You think the USA became a democratic domain in 2008? sorry, but bush just ran the Republican brand into the ground so hard that to run on the R ticket became instant death. Didn't mean that the country actually became any more liberal, and doesn't mean that we can afford to badmouth Democrats we don't like. They are far more likely to get progressive reform enacted than a Repub in the same seat is. Progressive reform fails when entitled, comfortable Deomocrats who don't really have any serious need to see the progressive agenda move forward call out everyone who "opposes abortion."
16
@15 = most brilliant takedown evar. Seriously, genius, you should run for office.
The Dems are going to take a little hit in 2010. The incumbent party always does. This isn't a surprise. I think losing the popular incumbent + no good replacement yet + a natural swing back to R + a conservative county is going to add up to a VERY tough race for the Ds. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Rs will nominate a child molester or something. God knows they've got enough of them lying around.
The Dems are going to take a little hit in 2010. The incumbent party always does. This isn't a surprise. I think losing the popular incumbent + no good replacement yet + a natural swing back to R + a conservative county is going to add up to a VERY tough race for the Ds. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Rs will nominate a child molester or something. God knows they've got enough of them lying around.
17
@3,6,16, etc.
Dude, seriously, learn that District boundaries do not equal County boundaries.
In fact, since they're all (even here) gerrymandered, they very rarely do.
Dude, seriously, learn that District boundaries do not equal County boundaries.
In fact, since they're all (even here) gerrymandered, they very rarely do.
18
If he didn't want to stick it out, then why didn't Baird retire last year when a D would have been a shoo-in?
19
Any Dem who replaces Baird is going to be another Baird-style moderate, not a liberal. The 3rd hasn't elected a true liberal since Jolene Unsoeld, and that was kind of a freak occurrence. Remember, we're talking about the district that elected batshit-crazy right-wing-nut Linda Smith.
20
I don't know about the rest of you, but LIKE HELL if I will put up with a RepubliSCUM or another Brian Baird MODERATE JOKE representing ME!
STIR UP SOME GOD DAM MUD AND GET EITHER A "GREEN" OR AN INDEPENDENT GOD DAMMIT!
QUITE FRANKLY I'M GETTING SICK OF ALL THIS DEFEATIST ATTITUDE
MOVE YOU BASTARDS!
STIR UP SOME GOD DAM MUD AND GET EITHER A "GREEN" OR AN INDEPENDENT GOD DAMMIT!
QUITE FRANKLY I'M GETTING SICK OF ALL THIS DEFEATIST ATTITUDE
MOVE YOU BASTARDS!
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