Slog

News & Arts

Line Out

Music & Nightlife

Monday, November 23, 2009

The Death of GOP Is For Real

Posted by Charles Mudede on Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 8:30 AM

The NYT is running an article that speaks as if the GOP has a future in this country:

The trick [of regaining power], some Republicans said, is to guide populists’ energies toward an optimistic agenda built on those themes. “If we don’t take this anger and frustration, as legitimate as I believe it is, and channel it into a good, a positive, then we won’t be successful,” said Rick Santorum, a former Republican senator from Pennsylvania.

Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, who was chairman of the Republican National Committee from 1993 to 1997 and is a potential 2012 president candidate, cited the 1994 House elections as a model for what the party can accomplish now. In that election, he said, Republicans attracted voters who in 1992 had backed H. Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy.

Populists, tea people, Palin, Huckabee—none can save this party. The GOP's problem is not leadership but the changing faces of the voters. Put another way, the GOP has a Darwin problem.


The one thing Bush did right? To attempt to adapt his party to this reality:

(FiveThirtyEight.com) Gallup has data out suggesting that 89 percent of self-identified Republicans are white; the comparable figure among Democrats is 65 percent.

This, however, is not exactly anything new. 88 percent of George W. Bush's voters in 2004, and 91 percent of them in 2000, were white. And nearly 98 percent of Ronald Reagan's voters in 1980 were white as were 96 percent of Gerald Ford's in 1976. The GOP is, in fact, slightly less white than it once was, as they do relatively better among Hispanics and Asians than among blacks (if still not particularly well), and Hispanics and Asians are starting to make up a larger fraction of the nonwhite (and overall) voting pool...

...Consider this remarkable statistic. In 1980, 32 percent of the electorate consisted of white Democrats (or at least white Carter voters) — likewise, in 2008, 32 percent of the electorate consisted of white Obama voters. But whereas, in 1980, just 9 percent of the electorate were nonwhite Carter voters, 21 percent of the electorate were nonwhite Obama voters last year. Thus, Carter went down to a landslide defeat, whereas Obama defeated John McCain by a healthy margin.


Bush tried to solve (or adapt to) this problem with "ownership society," but that program turned into the "subprime mortgage crisis" (greed killed a very good plan). Now the GOP is stuck with a bunch of rural and racist white people for its base, and what this shrinking and screaming group has to offer the party is nothing but a bleak political future.

(CNN) — By 2050, minorities will be the majority in America, and the number of residents older than 65 will more than double, according to projections released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.


The Census Bureau looks at 2000 results and assumptions about future childbearing, mortality rates and migration.

Minorities, classified as those of any race other than non-Hispanic, single-race whites, currently constitute about a third of the U.S. population, according to Census figures. But by 2042, they are projected to become the majority, making up more than half the population. By 2050, 54 percent of the population will be minorities.

Palin will not solve this growing problem ("2050, 62 percent of the nation's children will be minorities, up from 44 percent today"). The party has to change or die—Darwin to the max.

Share via

  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Newsvine
  • Reddit
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Email
 

Comments (14) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment
Max Solomon 1
in 2050, i'll be dead, or 86. i want to see the GOP dead in my lifespan, so hurry it along!
Posted by Max Solomon on November 23, 2009 at 8:51 AM
Fifty-Two-Eighty 2
Nice try, Charles, but you underestimate the American public's fickleness. They're already getting sick of Obama (approval rating 49%). Give it another three years and there's no telling what will happen.
Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty http://www.nra.org on November 23, 2009 at 9:01 AM
lark 3
Charles,
Nah, the GOP will be fine. The most recent gubernatorial elections in NJ and VA are examples of it's health. Neither Christie nor McConnell are reactionaries. Palin's flame will gradually go out. And the party is more diverse than you would imagine. Micheal Steele is after all chairman of the party.

Look, the thing that is overlooked is how the Christian Right's (remember Ralph Reed? Remember the Religious Right? Remember Jerry Falwell?) strength has actually diminished over the past few decades in the GOP. I contend that the "teabagger wing" of the party is smaller than one thinks. What's troublesome for the Democrats (and Republicans to be sure) is the rise of independents. One poll indicated that as few as 20% of American voters identify as either Dem. or Rep. That actually is problematic for Obama who's poll numbers have dipped below 50%. The GOP remains a force.
Posted by lark on November 23, 2009 at 9:04 AM
4
Palin better get home and get back to reproducing more white babies. That would probably do more to help the GOP than her parading around looking stupid.
Posted by Tom on November 23, 2009 at 9:06 AM
The Max 5
It is my great hope that I'll see the GOP disband before I die.

I think Charles is right, they're doomed unless they can spread their White Christian message to more people who are neither. I'm glad that's a tall order.
Posted by The Max on November 23, 2009 at 9:25 AM
6
@3 The NJ and VA elections were about local issues, not partisan lines. and Obama's diminishing numbers don't mean his supporters are going towards the right. Have you seen the GOP approval numbers? People want real progressive change in Congress.
Posted by kersy on November 23, 2009 at 9:27 AM
raindrop 7
I've bookmaked this article to read it again in the late hours of Nov 6, 2012 and laugh as the dems once again find themselves lost in the wilderness.
Posted by raindrop on November 23, 2009 at 10:02 AM
8
@3,

Michael Steele is a joke for a reason.
Posted by keshmeshi on November 23, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Will in Seattle 9
The Whig Party always thinks it can save itself.

But it can't.

Demographics and census changes mean absolute and certain death to them and their Socialist Corporate brethren and fellow travelers.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 23, 2009 at 11:25 AM
10
@7: That's right, when the dems win, the repubs really win, because one day they might get voted back into office.

Keep telling yourself that.
Posted by Losing Is Winning on November 23, 2009 at 11:38 AM
11
charles, you're way too focused on basic racial identity here. the true danger and mind-numbing annoyance of the GOP comes from it's general cultural take on the world. just because racial dynamics in this country are gradually changing doesn't mean people will automatically start thinking in a more enlightened way. i mean, look at that prayer warrior guy, he's black and he would totally put all the gays in a gas chamber if he had the power. if you want to crush the GOP you have to win the philosophical war that's at the heart of the current liberal/conservative split. fortunately progressive folks more often than not have truth and reason on their side. but we have to find a way to beat down the fear mongering, anti-rational, warped faux-religious mind set of a lot of people.
Posted by douglas on November 23, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Fnarf 12
@6, all politics is local. The Republicans could very easily sweep over liberal Washington State next, if the economic situation continues to destroy the budget. Someone like Susan Hutchison couldn't win King County but could take the state, and she only has to outpoll Dino Rossi by a few votes.

It's very foolish to pretend your opposition is just going to wither and die. Palin and the teabaggers are not the opposition; they're the crazies on the fringe. The center was persuaded by Obama but that doesn't mean they'll stay persuaded for the rest of eternity.

I wouldn't fret too much about Obama's approval rating, however. He's following Reagan's popularity path, and it's early yet.

The evangelical right traditionally exist only to pay lip service to; Bush's commitment to them, for instance, was ultimately nil. Any Republican who wants to win will do the same. As for non-white voters, well, you've got Loveschild, who has been turned into a de facto Republican by the gay rights issue. There're a lot like her.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on November 23, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Urgutha Forka 13
Slog commenter "Adam Smith's Invisible Hand" commented about the GOP's main problem some time ago. Basically, the GOP goes back and forth on social issues from time to time, but their principle selling point is tax-cuts for the rich, which is hard to sell to the middle class and poor, who will essentially be employed to wait on the rich hand and foot.
Posted by Urgutha Forka on November 23, 2009 at 1:53 PM
14
The majority of Americans of all races are traditionalists. Barack Hussein Obama is an aberation that won only because of an economic meltdown and pliant media. His approval is crashing every day because Americans do not want his Marxist homosexual agenda to take root, and there will be a massive backlash in 2010 that will render the Democrat Party a dead letter. Then two years later, Sarah Palin's 50 state sweep will be the dagger through the heart of Marxism and homosexuality, and America will return to normal.

Count on it!
Posted by Lord Basil http://sarahpac.com on November 23, 2009 at 2:20 PM

Add a comment

 

All contents © Index Newspapers, LLC
1535 11th Ave (Third Floor), Seattle, WA 98122
Contact Info | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use