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News & ArtsThursday, November 5, 2009
Election Woah! Math Nerds!
Posted by Eli Sanders on Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Assume n=129,000 ballots are drawn distributed with p=0.500571 in McGinn's favor. The mean outcome is that 64,597 (np) of those votes go to McGinn, with a standard deviation of 180 votes (sqrt n p (1-p)). To loose his current 462 vote lead, McGinn would have to get less than 63,769 votes ((129,000-462)/2). That is 828 votes less than the mean (64,597 - 63,769), a 4.6 sigma event (828/180). The chance of a 4.6 sigma deviation to one side is less than 1 in 10,000. Under these assumptions, it's basically impossible for Malhallan to win.
Get into the Mallahan-McGinn ballot mathathon HERE.
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