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News & ArtsThursday, November 5, 2009
Election The Butterfly Ballot Effect
Posted by Eli Sanders on Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 10:36 AM
David Goldstein crunches the numbers and finds that whoever designed this year's King County Ballot—on which the box for voting on I-1033 was essentially hidden from voters—must hate Democracy:
I-1033’s placement on the King County ballot is destined to become a classic case study in how ballot design can dramatically influence election outcomes… right up there alongside Palm Beach County’s infamous butterfly ballot.In Washington’s 38 other counties, about 2.8% of ballots have thus far failed to register a vote on I-1033, a pretty typical “residual vote rate” for a high profile, statewide initiative. But in King County, a full 9.8% of ballots have thus far failed to record a vote for I-1033, a very statistically significant falloff from the statewide average, and entirely out of whack with the county’s historical performance on other such ballot measures.
1
"The ButterFLY Ballot Effect?" I mean, unless that was on purpose. Hate to be the spelling nazi, but that is in the post headline...
4
My question would be: If every other county is exhibiting a "typical residual vote rate," then what does that say about the rubes in King County who weren't able to pay attention to the numerous tv ads, newspapers, websites and so forth pointing out (in some cases literally) exactly where I-1033 was located on the Ballot?
8
I think it's not because they didn't see it but because they didn't understand it. I have left boxes unchecked if I didn't know which was best.
9
we sure love math here on Slog topday, but totally in denial about the massive swing of independents away from Democrats in the Virginia and NJ elections.
Obama too cozy with wall street, unemployment too high, he hasn't delivered change. Main street is suffering. He compromised too much on the stimulus and now on health care reform, and he's not educating the independents yes we need big government, it works. His "Roosevelt lite" approach so far isn't working.
The independents thus don't know where to go and go against the democrats.
btw next year obama isn't on the ballot again, so, yes, the elections this year are a harbinger of next year. Not good news at all, and being in denial about it is the worst reaction possible.
Faking right then pretending to be left but in reality compromising so much your program doesn't actually work well enough for people to see results turns out to not be such a great governing approach. For all those who praised the fantasy of his alleged "fake right move left" genius.
Obama too cozy with wall street, unemployment too high, he hasn't delivered change. Main street is suffering. He compromised too much on the stimulus and now on health care reform, and he's not educating the independents yes we need big government, it works. His "Roosevelt lite" approach so far isn't working.
The independents thus don't know where to go and go against the democrats.
btw next year obama isn't on the ballot again, so, yes, the elections this year are a harbinger of next year. Not good news at all, and being in denial about it is the worst reaction possible.
Faking right then pretending to be left but in reality compromising so much your program doesn't actually work well enough for people to see results turns out to not be such a great governing approach. For all those who praised the fantasy of his alleged "fake right move left" genius.
10
3 No issue here without an implausible argument. In King County 1033 lost 33.3 to 66.7. Statewide it lost 43.8 to 56.2. Unless you could demonstrate that the additional votes that were disenfranchised by ballot design were vastly different than the rest of King Co votes it would not have changed the result. Now it would be grounds for a law suit if 1033 narrowly won statewide and if you factored in an additional few votes from King County it would flip.
13
I only which more people would recuse themselves from voting on things they aren't up to speed on.
And why is it so hard to design a decent ballot?
And why is it so hard to design a decent ballot?
14
I suspect it's because we bears of little brain respond most strongly to fear and anger, always in plentiful supply here.
15
Seems like anyone who felt strongly enough about I-1033 to vote for it probably would have thought to, you know, look for it on the ballot.
17
Max@7 I think your statement about 49% is pretty poorly worded, enough to be considered inaccurate by most standards.
Spandex Guy@3 Lawsuit isn't the appropriate route, perhaps there should be a rule change along the lines of whatever laws and rules govern voters' pamphlets - I'm sure there are rules about typesetting and design standards for ballots.
Spandex Guy@3 Lawsuit isn't the appropriate route, perhaps there should be a rule change along the lines of whatever laws and rules govern voters' pamphlets - I'm sure there are rules about typesetting and design standards for ballots.
18
Hah @ Troll #9. Christie and McD ran to the middle as hard as they could. Christie even ran ads with a favorable slant towards Obama. Yes, the lack of an Obama presence on the ballot could skew turnout towards the right, but if I were you, I wouldn't be on the party whose health care reform plan saves less money and covers less people.
Take a look at the ballot measures, buddy, and those will tell you where peoples' values lie. Funny how all the initiatives calling for more government spending passed, and all the tax slashing initiatives failed, huh?
Another thing: you seem to have a skewed definition of the word "independent." They run the gamut, from hyperconservative to bleeding heart liberal. They aren't a single block of voters that can be easily lumped together.
Take a look at the ballot measures, buddy, and those will tell you where peoples' values lie. Funny how all the initiatives calling for more government spending passed, and all the tax slashing initiatives failed, huh?
Another thing: you seem to have a skewed definition of the word "independent." They run the gamut, from hyperconservative to bleeding heart liberal. They aren't a single block of voters that can be easily lumped together.
19
@18
I am sure I donated more to obama than you did so "troll" is droll.
I am not on the GOP party as you put it I am totally for liberal freaking medicare for all and bigger government.
your post does nothing to rebut my point which is this:
we, the democrats, are going to lose lots and lots of seats next year if Ibama doesn't toughen up and deliver some more change.
And yes, the independents in virginia and nj not voting democratic is a bad thing. you can try to say it's not happening or it's not important all you want but that's sticking your head in the sand.
he should have made the stimulus bigger like krugman said, he should have ended DADT like he promised, he should have been out mobilizing grass roots for a public option that isn't a mere two percent of adults, and he should be out there explaining to independents that only big government saved us from 25 percent unemployment, instead of the passive triangulating bipartisan soft let's sit down with insurers approach. Because as we know see, it doesn't deliver change, and it means we the democrats don't have the independent vote even in nj, which means we are going to lose big big time next year unless this all changes. and on health care btw the benefits are sort of invisible for a few years and the rates will rise again in 2010 so i do not think it will be the huge win everyone thinks it will be because it's too compromised and moderate.
do you think Krugman is a gop troll too?
I am sure I donated more to obama than you did so "troll" is droll.
I am not on the GOP party as you put it I am totally for liberal freaking medicare for all and bigger government.
your post does nothing to rebut my point which is this:
we, the democrats, are going to lose lots and lots of seats next year if Ibama doesn't toughen up and deliver some more change.
And yes, the independents in virginia and nj not voting democratic is a bad thing. you can try to say it's not happening or it's not important all you want but that's sticking your head in the sand.
he should have made the stimulus bigger like krugman said, he should have ended DADT like he promised, he should have been out mobilizing grass roots for a public option that isn't a mere two percent of adults, and he should be out there explaining to independents that only big government saved us from 25 percent unemployment, instead of the passive triangulating bipartisan soft let's sit down with insurers approach. Because as we know see, it doesn't deliver change, and it means we the democrats don't have the independent vote even in nj, which means we are going to lose big big time next year unless this all changes. and on health care btw the benefits are sort of invisible for a few years and the rates will rise again in 2010 so i do not think it will be the huge win everyone thinks it will be because it's too compromised and moderate.
do you think Krugman is a gop troll too?
20
i knew i didn't mean AVERAGE as i've been corrected before, and MEAN came to mind before MEDIAN. i'll probably remember from here on out, but maybe not, as i am addicted to marijuana. i never claimed i wasn't in that 49%.
21
@4 Other counties didn't have the Initiative tucked under a long list of instructions in the first column.
With that said, only an uninformed voter wouldn't have noticed not voting on I-1033.
With that said, only an uninformed voter wouldn't have noticed not voting on I-1033.
22
I for one am deathly afraid of dihydroxide variants.
Especially the ones in bottles ....
(stares at people who don't understand "median")
Especially the ones in bottles ....
(stares at people who don't understand "median")
23
Intelligence usually has a fairly normal distribution, so the mean and the median would be close to equal anyway.
Just sayin...
Just sayin...
26
@24,
As long as the sample is sufficient, I don't think there are enough people with Asperger's or autism to skew the distribution enough, especially since they aren't really the outliers anyway (those are the geniuses and profoundly mentally retarded).
As long as the sample is sufficient, I don't think there are enough people with Asperger's or autism to skew the distribution enough, especially since they aren't really the outliers anyway (those are the geniuses and profoundly mentally retarded).
27
Or, hey, maybe they're just incompetent. I've heard that also happens.
whoever designed this year's King County Ballot—on which the box for voting on I-1033 was essentially hidden from voters—must hate Democracy:
Or, hey, maybe they're just incompetent. I've heard that also happens.
28
@27: Incompetence at King County Elections? Surely you jest!
@5: The Secretary of State's office didn't design the ballot, dumbass. King County Elections did. Furthermore, Sam Reed has done an exemplary job of promoting transparent elections and has been an unsung hero championing the cause of a free press. He's gone to the mat against local bureaucrats who have wanted to keep government documents secret from the press; if any reporter in this state gets denied access to a public record, Sam makes sure the bureaucrat regrets it and the reporter gets what s/he wants.
I'm left of communist, but I've voted for Sam and will again. He's the rare Republican who actually believes in democracy.
@5: The Secretary of State's office didn't design the ballot, dumbass. King County Elections did. Furthermore, Sam Reed has done an exemplary job of promoting transparent elections and has been an unsung hero championing the cause of a free press. He's gone to the mat against local bureaucrats who have wanted to keep government documents secret from the press; if any reporter in this state gets denied access to a public record, Sam makes sure the bureaucrat regrets it and the reporter gets what s/he wants.
I'm left of communist, but I've voted for Sam and will again. He's the rare Republican who actually believes in democracy.
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