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News & ArtsThursday, November 5, 2009
Election McGinn Holds Minuscule Lead
Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 4:41 PM
King County Elections just posted the latest batch of election results—about 30,000 new ballots from voters in the Seattle mayor's race—showing that Mike McGinn's lead is holding steady. He was 462 votes in the lead over Joe Mallahan as of this time yesterday; he is leading by 515 votes today.
Mike McGinn 65,172 49.78%
Joe Mallahan 64,657 49.38%
Write-in 1,100 0.84%
The New York Times reported in 2001 that the mayor's race eight years ago, between Greg Nickels and Mark Sidran, was "the closest race for mayor in Seattle since 1912." The election results came out for 10 days before Nickels was declared the winner. Will this one be closer? Will we get into recount territory? It's still too soon to know.
Also, as I've mentioned before, McGinn was in the lead on primary election night this August before Mallahan surged past him by 221 votes the next day. Mallahan held an advantage for two days. A later push of returns let McGinn regain the lead by that Friday. So things could easily turn the other way tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Referendum 71 is being approved by a three-point margin: 51.52 percent to 48.48 percent. UPDATE! The state has updated the R-71 returns: R-71 is now being approved by 52.41 percent to 47.59 percent—a five-point lead.
While we're looking at close races, let's—just for fun—look at a race where the disparity of support is growing. Pete Holmes is now ousting incumbent City Attorney Tom Carr by a 25-point margin.
All the King County election results are here; state results for I-1033 and R-71 are here.
5
Very nice. Good job McGinn.
I wonder if any of those 1,100 write-in voters are kicking themselves?
I wonder if any of those 1,100 write-in voters are kicking themselves?
6
The State just updated its numbers: 71 up 52.5 to 47.5.
And, yes, the mayor's race is now officially a nail-biter.
And, yes, the mayor's race is now officially a nail-biter.
7
The REF -71 numbers were just updated:
52.5% Approve
47.5% Reject
Leading by about 52,000 votes.
Good news!
52.5% Approve
47.5% Reject
Leading by about 52,000 votes.
Good news!
10
Secretary of State's website says that King County only has 13,800 ballots on hand left to count. If that's true, then I think Mallahan is going to be in trouble. Winning even 30,000 votes by 500 would be difficult for him, I believe.
12
goddammit i am biting my nails for reals. although i don't live in seattle i am a city employee, so i'm anxious to see who the new boss is.
i hope it's mcginn!
i hope it's mcginn!
14
Wow, almost exactly the same pattern as the primary, except Malladroit's bump was much smaller this time around and was basically him cannibalizing the write-ins.
15
Mr. John...I thought that too, but, it says to 'process'...I think that's different than count? Cause it went from 129K to 13K with this update. But, only 30K were added to this result.
16
@1: well, washington has. gregoire/rossi, cantwell/gorton.
let's hear some noise from the mallahan supporters, ok? guys? you out there? man, they stay away from mcslog land.
let's hear some noise from the mallahan supporters, ok? guys? you out there? man, they stay away from mcslog land.
17
Is there a web site where you can see how certain cities/towns voted on the issues like 1033 and 71? I know you can find couty results.
19
So there are only 13,000 KC ballots still on hand to process?
How many of those are probably from Seattle?
How many ballots are yet to land in the "still on hand to process" pile?
How many of those are probably from Seattle?
How many ballots are yet to land in the "still on hand to process" pile?
20
@17 I think that's coming tomorrow. I saw on the Counties results schedule they're releasing more breakdowns on Friday.
21
The comment threads for the Spokane news outlets are a festival of bad grammar, worse spelling, and hilariously misinformed references to the Bible and the Constitution. (Did you know that voting in favor of gay rights is unconstitutional? You're welcome.) (Oh, also they hate you. You are cramming your agenda down everyone else's throats. Hahahahahaha...)
22
@15: 30K votes were added in the Seattle Mayor's race, but the "ballots on hand to be processed" numbers on the Sec of State's site are for the entire county. They say Seattle is about 1/3rd of the county so that would indicate that they've counted ~120K ballots since yesterday. I'm certainly not sure about this, as I don't really think anyone outside of King County elections and Sam Reed's office know what those numbers truly mean.
23
WHY IS IT TAKING SO LONG?!?!?! does the city have some sort of ballot-counters union that limits the number of ballots they're allowed to count in a day?!
24
@19 And why does Snohomish and Pierce County have so many votes to count, waaaay more than King...that doesn't make sense.
26
is anyone else worried that there are a ton of votes yet to be counted in pierce and spokane counties that are voting no on 71? Spokane has like 30k Ballots left..
27
@21 - Oh Spokane, my poor backwards hometown. I've always considered it a blotch of purple in a sea of dark red though and while I'm disappointed in it, I'm not that suprised. At this point, I just hope that approve gets over 40%. With that said, I have a few Tacoma suburb based friends (now, like me, living in Seattle) who are having the same sorts of issues with Pierce county's rejection.
29
@10 - on hand to date. Doesn't mean anything.
Yes on 71 ftw!
No on 1033 ftw!
but our turnout numbers for King are still way too low. Something smells and it better not be a recount with a batch of missing McGinn ballots.
Yes on 71 ftw!
No on 1033 ftw!
but our turnout numbers for King are still way too low. Something smells and it better not be a recount with a batch of missing McGinn ballots.
30
@26, R-71 will pass, I'm quite certain. It has a 60,000 vote cushion right now. Sec. of State says there's about 246K votes left to be counted. Let's round up and say there are 300K votes outstanding. In order to get rejected, those votes would have to be split 120K to Approve/180K to Reject, or 40/60 split, which would basically mean that the rest of the votes would have to come from the reddest parts of the state in order for it to fail. R-71 will be approved.
31
@17 - the King County site has a city/town breakdown if you go to stats - think that updates at 8 pm every day.
32
I want to send Larry Sick-ney a note thanking him for giving the voters of the State of Washington the chance to make history by expanding the rights of LGBT people through the popular vote.
33
This shows a 40% return rate for KC. Is that what you mean by low? Or the 29% rate showing on the Sec of State site.
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/abs…
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/abs…
34
@30 to go even further, 134,000 of the uncounted ballots came from the counties that thus far are approving; even if all of those ballots come in 50/50 (a very pessimistic guess), the remaining 139,000 would have to come in 72% reject to overcome the vote deficit.
And there is NO WAY that will happen, since the bulk of those 'yellow-bellied' ballots are from pierce (53% reject, 50,000 uncounted) and spokane (60% reject, 35,000 uncounted) counties.
And there is NO WAY that will happen, since the bulk of those 'yellow-bellied' ballots are from pierce (53% reject, 50,000 uncounted) and spokane (60% reject, 35,000 uncounted) counties.
35
My ballot and my wife's ballot still haven't been received. I dropped them off on Monday at one of those free King County ballot boxes in Auburn (I work down there). That's two votes for McGinn yet to be counted.
36
@23: A good quantity of ballots were mailed on Tuesday, the deadline. They have to go through the mail and arrive at King County's election HQ. Then they have to go through the signature verification process. Then they are opened and counted, presumably by machines.
There's no deliberate delay, but accurate and fair election work cannot be rushed. Or, it can, but it's called corruption.
There's no deliberate delay, but accurate and fair election work cannot be rushed. Or, it can, but it's called corruption.
40
Yes--that is some good news with Ref 71. (especially in light of Maine). Hopefully that lead stays or even widens with the final tally.
42
" Pete Holmes is now ousting incumbent City Attorney Tom Carr by a 25-point margin."
Lesson learned: Don't fuck with Seattle alcoholics. They are a voting constituency.
Lesson learned: Don't fuck with Seattle alcoholics. They are a voting constituency.
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