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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

UW Forecast: R-71 Will Pass

Posted by Dominic Holden on Wed, Nov 4, 2009 at 1:02 PM

The Washington Poll, a project run by the University of Washington, predicts that Referendum 71 will pass by over 80,000 votes. Matt Barreto, an associate professor of political science at the UW, says they used a combination of extrapolating results from the first day of election returns and factoring in a surge of late ballots from King County, which is currently favoring R-71 by a 30-point margin. These are the numbers the UW is predicting:

Total votes: 1,757,924

Votes to approve: 919,727

Votes to reject: 838,198

Margin of approval: 81,529

Although the measure leads only by two points (current results here), Barreto expects the margin to grow to more than four points. "We think the large turnout in King County will bump it up," he says.

"Usually data comes in fairly consistent patterns and doesn't change more than two to three points from election night to final returns," Barreto says. However, he believes King County voters disproportionately mailed their ballots in the last days before the cut-off, so they haven't yet been tallied, while they made up their minds in the mayor's race. "We have a pretty high degree of confidence in the King County [voter turnout] estimate, and that by itself should be enough to secure the approval of Referendum 71. Even if King County gets more conservative [as votes are tallied], R-71 will still pass because it has such a wide margin in King County."

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Comments (13) RSS

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Womyn2me 1
So.... when can my partner and I get not married? We have been holding off on a trip to Iowa.
Posted by Womyn2me on November 4, 2009 at 1:09 PM
2
I'm not gay, but I wish I were so I could "threaten the institution of marriage."
Posted by Ponyboy on November 4, 2009 at 1:12 PM
3
yeah, that makes sense, king county comes to the rescue once again. the big question is will the votes posted tonight be in a "fairly consistent pattern" or not. it could also be eastern washington gets more hateful in the late votes. but yeah, i can buy this.
Posted by jimmy john on November 4, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Adie 4
Even if that is the case @3, look at the voter turnout http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTu…
They (eastern WA) just don't seem to have the numbers. Crossing my fingers though!
Posted by Adie on November 4, 2009 at 1:21 PM
kim in portland 5
Please let it be so.
Posted by kim in portland http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPpCxY05dqs on November 4, 2009 at 1:26 PM
6
Adie @ 4 -- that's exactly right, and from browsing the UW spreadsheet of vote estimates, it seems this is what they have taken into account, that King County has more total votes left to be counted, and is heavily in favor of 71 -- all good news
Posted by Wilson on November 4, 2009 at 1:34 PM
7
I seem to remember a lot of estimates showing that this wouldn't have enough valid signatures to make it on the ballot too, and we all know how that turned out.
Posted by JohnnyC on November 4, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Will in Seattle 8
@3 - when we're 30 percent of the voters in Washington State, what we say goes.

Deal with it - or move.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 2:34 PM
9
Their assumption of 50% turnout might be optimistic, but other than that I can't argue with their logic. About the only way it could go wrong is if the late ballots skew more towards rejection than the early ones. As #4 points out, this would pretty much have to happen in one of the counties with a lot of ballots left to count to swing the vote enough to matter.
Posted by Orv on November 4, 2009 at 3:21 PM
Will in Seattle 10
@9 - highly unlikely. A lot of the last minute ones were undecided on the Seattle mayoral race for the most part, or a few key Port or School Board races, and they tended to break for 71.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 3:46 PM
11
Remember Maine: Full Federal Equality Now!
By SHERRY WOLF

IN STARK contrast to the surge of pro-LGBT activism, and legislative and legal progress in recent months, Maine voters overturned equal marriage rights on Election Day by a margin of 53 percent to 47 percent.

Voter turnout of nearly 50 percent, local efforts by 8,000 volunteers—many of them straight—and a national blitz of phone banking to try to sway Mainers to uphold equal marriage was not sufficient to retain same-sex marriage in that state. Maine’s Question 1—similar to California’s Proposition 8 that reversed same-sex marriage rights in that state exactly a year ago—once again placed civil rights on the ballot, this time in an off-year election.

In Washington state, a new law that greatly expands the rights of LGBT couples—though doesn’t grant marriage itself—was approved by voters, but by an unexpectedly narrow margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.

The failure of the same-sex marriage forces in Maine’s No on 1 campaign to retain marriage equality passed earlier this year by the legislature highlights four central problems: 1) Civil rights activists are weakest outside of urban areas where the financial and institutional resources of the right can dominate rural politics; 2) President Obama and the Democrats have failed to deliver on their promise of “fierce advocacy” of LGBT civil rights; 3) LGBT rights must be enacted into law by the federal government; and 4) Civil rights should not be reduced to election fodder to be manipulated by well-financed bigots.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

NATIONWIDE, LGBT activists scrambled in a monumental effort to try to stop right-wingers in Maine from succeeding in what was often termed a “mini-Prop 8” effort that relied on money from the Catholic Church and blitzed the media with lies about how gay marriage would be taught in the schools and imposed on religious institutions.

Local groups will assess the No on 1 organizing efforts in coming weeks, but suffice it to say that despite what appears to have been an energetic and collaborative campaign, equal marriage has lost in every state it has been put to a popular vote—31 in all. Despite the fact that the No on 1 campaign, Protect Maine Equality, raised $4 million and the anti-same-sex marriage forces raised only $2.5 million, the strategy of statewide ballot initiatives plays to activists’ weaknesses, especially in non-urban areas.

In addition to the purposely confusing language used by the right in these initiatives—voting “yes” denied equality, voting “no” would have retained it—larger population centers create opportunities for activists to reach people in groups, as in Portland, Maine, where the vote was an overwhelming 73 percent against Question 1. At University of Maine’s Orono campus, 81 percent of students voted against taking away equal marriage rights, also showing the generation gap that persists on this question.

Similarly, in Washington state, it was urban King County that voted overwhelmingly for the “everything but marriage” referendum, while the less populated eastern part of the state voted against it.

Just three weeks after the massively successful LGBT National Equality March that drew more than 200,000 people demanding full federal equality now, conservatives are punching back. Right-wing bigots like Pat Robertson have attacked recently enacted federal hate crimes legislation, saying, “The noose has tightened around the necks of Christians to keep them from speaking out on certain moral issues.”

In the face of this hostility and legal challenges, the Democrats have been passive at best and hostile at worst. The White House and Congress have failed to deliver so far on promises to reverse decades of legal discrimination in federal and state laws.

When Attorney General Eric Holder was asked about Maine’s Question 1, he said that he and President Obama “are of the view it is for states to make these decisions.” Holder later said to one blogger, “I don’t really know enough about the referendum over there to comment.” As National Equality March organizer Cleve Jones said on MSNBC of President Obama’s silence on Question 1, “This is a far cry from the fierce advocacy he promised us in his campaign.”

Even more outrageous, not only did the Democratic National Committee (DNC) refuse to help finance the No on 1 campaign, but it expressed crass indifference to LGBT rights when the DNC’s organization “Organizing for America” (formerly known as “Obama for America”) e-mailed Maine voters the day before the election about getting involved…in the gubernatorial contest in New Jersey (which lost)!

The failure of the Democrats to hold onto huge gains made in the 2008 election in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races—and the flaccid response from Obama’s base in this off-year election—reveals that the inability of the Democrats in power to deliver on their promises is alienating progressives.

“President Obama and his team were zero help in this critical battle, and in the last week might actually have hurt us,” said David Mixner, long-time Democratic Party activist and initiator of the call for the National Equality March.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

MAINE’S REVERSAL on marriage equality proves once again the bankruptcy of the state-by-state, issue-by-issue strategy upheld by many establishment LGBT forces. This approach concedes that civil rights must remain on the precarious turf of the states, in a country where one Constitution is supposed to guarantee equal protection under the law.

Activists can no longer accept that LGBT civil rights can be attained outside the federal government. Even if Maine voters had rejected Question 1, most marriage rights like Social Security are only gained through the federal government and married LGBT people in Maine, as in the equal marriage states, would have remained second-class citizens under the law.

The right’s strategy of placing LGBT civil rights on state ballots for a vote places the battle for human equality on an unstable and hostile terrain. Why should anyone have to battle in each locality for equal treatment in a country where the Fourteenth Amendment—passed after the Civil War!—guarantees equal protection to all U.S. citizens? Why should LGBT people have to repeatedly reassert that we are equal human beings in every state and municipality 45 years after the Civil Rights Act prohibited discrimination?

Civil rights cannot wait for the approval of reactionaries. According to that logic, Blacks, too, should have waited for public opinion to catch up with their demands. But in 1968, one year after the Supreme Court struck down bans on interracial marriage as unconstitutional, Gallup polls showed that only 20 percent of Americans approved of marriages between Blacks and whites.

The failure of Maine’s No on 1 campaign highlights why the National Equality March demand for full equality in all matters of civil law in all 50 states must continue to be the rallying cry of grassroots activists across the country.

This is the Week of Initiative called by Equality Across America, the national network attempting to gather these groupings to map out a national strategy to continue this fight. In cities and towns across the country this week, activists will be marching and protesting this defeat in Maine—and celebrating victories in Washington state and Kalamazoo, Michigan, where pro-LGBT referenda passed.

Remember Maine. Get out and organize for full federal equality now!

SHERRY WOLF is the author of Sexuality and Socialism: History, Politics and Theory of LGBT Liberation (Haymarket Books, 2009) and was on the steering committee of the National Equality March.
More...
Posted by Zepol on November 4, 2009 at 4:36 PM
12
New results are now posted and the UW report looks spot on, the approve lead has grown to 40,000 and the results did in fact come in consistent with yesterday (slightly more approve in Puget region).

Yay!
Posted by NoseBud on November 4, 2009 at 6:16 PM
13
What do you mean, "however"? "Usually data comes in fairly consistent patterns and doesn't change more than two to three points" and they're expecting it to rise from a 2 pt spread to a 4 pt spread: 4 minus 2 is within "two to three points". Why "however"?
Posted by idaho on November 4, 2009 at 11:01 PM

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