The Washington Poll, a project run by the University of Washington, predicts that Referendum 71 will pass by over 80,000 votes. Matt Barreto, an associate professor of political science at the UW, says they used a combination of extrapolating results from the first day of election returns and factoring in a surge of late ballots from King County, which is currently favoring R-71 by a 30-point margin. These are the numbers the UW is predicting:
Total votes: 1,757,924Votes to approve: 919,727
Votes to reject: 838,198
Margin of approval: 81,529
Although the measure leads only by two points (current results here), Barreto expects the margin to grow to more than four points. "We think the large turnout in King County will bump it up," he says.
"Usually data comes in fairly consistent patterns and doesn't change more than two to three points from election night to final returns," Barreto says. However, he believes King County voters disproportionately mailed their ballots in the last days before the cut-off, so they haven't yet been tallied, while they made up their minds in the mayor's race. "We have a pretty high degree of confidence in the King County [voter turnout] estimate, and that by itself should be enough to secure the approval of Referendum 71. Even if King County gets more conservative [as votes are tallied], R-71 will still pass because it has such a wide margin in King County."
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