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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Election Night: Winners and Losers

Posted by on Wed, Nov 4, 2009 at 10:00 AM

Last night, despite the SECB's beer goggles—and wine goggles and whisky goggles—that made us swoon for Dow Constantine and Pete Holmes, a few things were extremely clear: People are sick of City Attorney Tom Carr, nobody is fooled by Susan Hutchison’s claim that she’s a “nonpartisan” (look at her "nonpartisan" friends), and, damn, voters are homophobic in Eastern Washington. But between the electoral tallies, there are other winners and losers in this election.

THE WINNERS

Labor Unions: Organized labor threw stacks of cash into the campaign to oppose Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1033, which had been leading in polls a month before the election. The unions successfully crushed the measure. Unions also provided 100 percent of the funding for Reform the Port, a PAC to put liberals on the port commission. They pushed through one of their candidates, Rob Holland, despite a nasty opposition campaign from conservative David Doud. Unions will have proven muscle going in Olympia next year, where they can tell legislators to capitulate or risk losing their seats next November.

The Sierra Club: The green pedigree of former Sierra Club chair Mike O’Brien was a launching pad to win a seat on the city council. Despite being outspent three-to-one by the campaign of his opponent, Robert Rosencrantz, and Forward Seattle PAC, voters ignored the fear mongering that a green candidate would toll roads and promote congestion. The same enviro credentials helped put Mike McGinn in the driver’s seat of the mayor’s race, controlling the message from beginning to end. Despite being outspent five-to-one—and losing the endorsements of the establishment, who sought Joe Mallahan as their puppet—McGinn still holds a slight lead. Mallahan, who is supported by giant children, is trailing. The next batch of results will be posted at 4:30 p.m. Here’s McGinn last night at the War Room:

The Tunnel: Even though voters like Mike, that’s no referendum on killing the tunnel project—since he’s softened his opposition. But with City Council President Richard Conlin winning a fourth term on the city council, the tunnel is all but certain. The city council is expected to elect Conlin to a consecutive council presidency, ensuring that he’ll be the most powerful man at city hall while the new mayor gets settled—and Conlin wants a tunnel.

Partisan Politics: Passing Initiative 26 last year, which prevented candidates from listing party preference on the ballot, doesn’t mean King County voters really want nonpartisan races. In the latest polls, voters preferred their "nonpartisan" King County Executive mostly down party lines in favor of Dow Constantine. And Dow won. Voters like partisanship—they just want candidates to scrap about issues like abortion to prove their party allegiances.

THE LOSERS

The Police and Firefighters Unions: The law-enforcement and fire unions threw their weight behind unsuccessful City Council candidate Jessie Israel, a law-and-order type, who lost handily to incumbent Nick Licata. Licata has a record pushing criminal justice reform and pissing off the police union. The fire-union president, Kenny Stuart, also led the Working for Seattle PAC, which backed Mallahan, but got fined $5,000 by the city’s ethics commission for breaking election law. And for all their dirty campaigning, Mallahan is down—he could rise again, sure—and his numbers are low for the mayoral candidate with five times the money of his opponent and the backing of the law-enforcement and fire unions. The Seattle Police Officers’ Guild also threw their weight behind City Attorney Tom Carr, an endorsement that was worth fuck-all in the end. Both unions backed Robert Rosencrantz’s third bid for city council—but the third time was not a charm.

Radical Right: Republicans lost big—both in a big “nonpartisan” race where a Republican's true colors bled across the ballot, and two state initiatives that pitted liberals against conservatives. Tim Eyman’s I-1033, a government-starving measure popular among conservatives, got smashed. Meanwhile, the Christian extremists who put the state's domestic-partnership-expansion law on the ballot hoped that by casting Referendum 71 as gay marriage—claiming it would teach kids about gayness in schools, no less—they would elicit the flood of homophobic votes that passed Prop 8 in California last year and approved Question 1 in Maine last night. But it didn’t work. Voters are narrowly approving R-71—not by much, but approving it nonetheless—and as a result, gay organizing in Washington has never been stronger.

Gay Marriage: Actual marriage is still a long way off. In Maine we lost, and the map below shows where strength lies for approving R-71. The green counties approved the measure; the yellow-bellied counties rejected it.

r-71_counties.jpg

Opportunism: Candidates who ran because they had a quarter-million dollars laying around didn't win the victories that their money suggests they would, initiative profiteers who tried to dupe the public found that voters aren't that stupid, and folks who think they can hide behind nonpartisanship got trounced.

 

Comments (34) RSS

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Confluence 1
Wow - the Seattle area is like a tiny blue bubble within a very red state.
Posted by Confluence on November 4, 2009 at 10:05 AM
2
Yeah but no one lives int he red areas its all in the Seattle Metro area, so hence we are a blue state.
Posted by Mike Jones 12 on November 4, 2009 at 10:09 AM
Packeteer 3
Once again the polls fail. I hate how nationwide people like Matt Drudge tout these polls showing how everyone hates Obama yet we know its a bunch of BS that comes from calling old white people with landlines. I have never owned a landline in my life and I never will.
Posted by Packeteer on November 4, 2009 at 10:14 AM
4
What the fuck is wrong with Vancouver? Clark County should be to Portland as Snohomish County is to Seattle, and yet somehow Snohomish voted Approve.
Posted by shabadoo on November 4, 2009 at 10:20 AM
Matt from Denver 5
I'm mildly surprised about Pierce County being yellow. I know Tacoma isn't Seattle but usually they go the same way as the rest of the heavily populated counties.
Posted by Matt from Denver on November 4, 2009 at 10:20 AM
6
It's yellow, but not by much. The same is true of Mason, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties; they voted it down, but not by nearly as wide a margin as the eastern Washington counties did.
Posted by Orv on November 4, 2009 at 10:29 AM
7
1
If that R71 map is changed to show precient results you'll find the green shrinks even more.
Posted by greenjeans on November 4, 2009 at 10:32 AM
8
Could we start a boycott haters campaign. Or maybe a "be queer and there" campaign to be vocally pro-gay-rights whenever we go visit/spend our money on the other side of the mountains. Fortunately, I have no reason to visit or spend money in Tacoma, ever.
Posted by ScreenName on November 4, 2009 at 10:41 AM
9
Get a cartogram, a map that shows the counties or precincts not by area but shifted to reflect population size; it feels good to show your dominance instead of using an arbitrary presentation format that rewards forests, mountains, and arid wastelands instead of people.

Posted by dataheads hop to it! on November 4, 2009 at 10:46 AM
Fnarf 10
Before you go lighting your torches, maybe wait until the votes are in? These are the same early totals we had last night. That's not even 40,000 no votes in Pierce, fewer than 20,000 in Yakima. There's a lot of votes to be counted yet.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on November 4, 2009 at 10:47 AM
11
@8: The tricky bit is every county had some people who voted for it, and I'm not sure we want to punish them for the sins of their neighbors. In some cases this is pretty significant -- like in Pierce county, 47% of people voted for the bill. Hell, even Garfield County had 193 people who supported us, that could be three or four whole towns over there. ;)
Posted by Orv on November 4, 2009 at 10:49 AM
12
@10: Pierce has actually done a couple of results drops since then. That's part of the reason the statewide margin has narrowed slightly. King County isn't scheduled to do another one until 4:30 pm, so I expect it to widen again then.
Posted by Orv on November 4, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Joe Szilagyi 13
Remember these color charts are also bullshit.

Compare the population with the "Greens" above vs the population of the "Yellows". The aggregate population of the Green outdoes Yellow by what, 10:1?
Posted by Joe Szilagyi http://www.joeszilagyi.com on November 4, 2009 at 10:51 AM
14
also a WINNER:

The PEOPLE.

Now empowered by internet and facebook and social networking the old discomfort with coldcalling voters has disappeared and real honest to god people have as much or more power than traditional goups like "labor unions." Witness the remarkable people powered McGinn campaign SURGE in the last 7-10 days; because the PEOPLE backed him, and volunteered, his message points got out to voters and he didn't need wads of tunnel-supporter whorish CASH to fight to equality .... if not, victory, if the upward trend holds.

And in a national specturm where the Obamaism of 2008 largely disappeared from Maine, Virginia and New Jersey, McGinn's CHANGE in relying on PEOPLE stands out.

SUGGESTION: All McGinn volunteers, stay organized! And gather more. We'll need to fight by contacting folks like Gregoire, state reps, Chopp, Conlin and others who need to ask harder questions on that tunnel. Don't be like Obama and let the grass roots wither away to nothingness!
Posted by Been Sayin' on November 4, 2009 at 10:52 AM
15
The Yellow Counties didn't "soundly reject" Referendum 71. Look at the numbers. In a lot of the counties of Eastern Washington, the reject side only beat the approve side by small numbers. The problem with the "winner take all" system of elections is that it gives you a false impression of the strength. But then again, if professional perpetual fundraising groups like ERW and they mouthpieces in the media can continue to argue the "uphill battle" victimhood message, they always have a cash cow to tap into. But the supporters of marriage equality, domestic partnerships, and civil unions are in fact the majority in this state. When we have political leadership that ACTS like the majority, we will have full equality under the law. So long as we reach for the lowest limb on the tree and cater our message to the minority instead of the majority, we will remain unequal.
Posted by Zepol on November 4, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Fnarf 16
And before you get too excited about McGinn, realize that although he's "still" leading, the votes stand exactly where they were at 8:30 last night, after one the first dump. "Still" implies that he's held onto his lead through a series of updates, but he hasn't.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on November 4, 2009 at 11:04 AM
17
13
so why is only 1% separating them?
Posted by Bullshit is Green on November 4, 2009 at 11:07 AM
18
"Don't be like Obama and let the grass roots wither away to nothingness! "

You should probably know that a lot of McGinn volunteers first started as Obama volunteers. That's not the grassroots withering; that's the grassroots reseeding. (yes, auditory puns are sometimes ironic)
Posted by slag on November 4, 2009 at 11:20 AM
Max Solomon 19
appropos of last night's postings about wahkiakum county, i just noticed that jefferson county is fucking retarded, too. port townsend and moclips? you just don't draw some lines on a map, 19th century legislators.
Posted by Max Solomon on November 4, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Will in Seattle 20
Don't worry, the tunnel is still dead.

Never forget that Seattle's close race made the 2:1 turnout for Yes 71 and No 1033 the statewide sweep that it was.

Wait till you see what we have coming next ... (grin)
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Will in Seattle 21
@4 - you mean Fort Vancouver. New day, new name.

@16 - lol. you still don't get how the green machine works - and all those last minute voters what votes at midnite yeah baby yeah ...
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Vince 22
This teaches us that we cannot become complacent and let others do our voting. The anger about prop. 8 pushed us to vote. But the haters will be back. They only know hate. We know better.
Posted by Vince on November 4, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Will in Seattle 23
@22 - did u see the vid and pics from the hate side - they're really old white men and a few old white women.

they are literally dying off.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 11:57 AM
24
Please stop using that map. It's way misleading. It gives us no useful information about depth of support/opposition. A county could be at 49/51 and still be labeled the same way as a county that was at 25/75.
Posted by Kevin Erickson on November 4, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Will in Seattle 25
@24 - a better map usage would be an LD or precinct map colored Red Purple Blue - like the urban archipelago one - and then do a pop distortion map showing total voters per to give true scale as well.

Redefine the battlefield. Don't accept projections that point out your weakness, use ones that allow you to build on your strengths.

An age breakdown one would help too.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 4, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Cascadian 26
Pierce County is an embarrassment to the rest of the Puget Sound area.
Posted by Cascadian on November 4, 2009 at 12:23 PM
27
22
We Shall OverCummm
We Shall OverCum...
Posted by Sing It With Me! on November 4, 2009 at 12:37 PM
28
25
Get me a blank map and I'll get my 3 year old to color the whole thing green.
even the ocean.
Posted by Will That Make You Fell Better, Will? on November 4, 2009 at 12:39 PM
Lord Basil 29
King County is hopelessly Marxist. Maybe loyal Americans can convince it to secede and join up with The People's Republic of Taxachussetts.

LOL LOL LOL!!!

But seriously, the big winner tonight was conservatism. No question about it. The hard traditionalists among us came out in droves and got rid of all the GOP RINO pretenders (see NY-23), and while we lost there, we sent a message that leftists in drag - which is what RINO's are - aren't welcome anymore.

Last night was basically a warmup act. For one year from now, the Marxist progressives trying to foist liberalism and homosexuality onto right thinking Americans will get their asses kicked.

Liberalism has only one year to live...that is if our homosexual usurper in chief doesn't invent a reason to postpone or cancel next year's elections.

And you can bet that well armed patriots will respond!

USA! USA! USA!
Posted by Lord Basil http://lordbasil.blogspot.com/ on November 4, 2009 at 12:43 PM
McGee 30
Keep telling yourself that, fuckface.
Posted by McGee on November 4, 2009 at 12:51 PM
31
@29: Newsflash: Conservatives may have won the battle in NY-23, but they also lost the election. I heartily endorse you kicking all the mainstream moderates out of the Republican party, leaving only the radial right to run the joint. It's a surefire route to permanent minority status. You and the Green Party can commiserate about how unfair it is to be ideologically pure yet unelectable.
Posted by Orv on November 4, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Frau Blucher 32
@ 29 - We've all heard, and grown tired of, those lunatic conservative blanket bullshit statements.

Please, inform the rest of your dumbass party.
Posted by Frau Blucher on November 4, 2009 at 1:18 PM
britva 33
Well, I think we see the first salvo of the kiss of death from endorsement by Sarah Palin. She was an awesome addition to the presidential election, allowing it to be surreal and entertaining as well as even more deeply satisfying in the end result (if that's possible). If she works hard enough and endorses enough people, the Republican party will be remembered about as clearly as the Whigs in 10 years time as the party she influences veers into the ditch on the far right. I can think of nothing I'll enjoy more than the continuing influence of Sarah on her party and the quality of political humor in our country. Please, please, please let her run in 2012.
Posted by britva on November 4, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Y.F. Redux 34
See those yellow counties. Those are the counties you should not be spending money in. If they hate your queer ass, they must hate your queer cash!
Posted by Y.F. Redux on November 4, 2009 at 6:43 PM

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