Detailed cross tabs of a poll released yesterday by SurveyUSA show Joe Mallahan has a two-point lead, but 12 percent of voters remain undecided. How are they likely to vote?

If late-October trends are an indiction, Mike McGinn could do well: He picked up seven percent support since a poll conducted 10 days before—when 21 percent of voters were undecided—but Mallahan only picked up two percent. If McGinn continues to get three-quarters of undecided voters, he could win.

Younger voters will probably steer heavily towards McGinn. The largest age demographic of undecided voters are 18 to 34 years old—who make up a quarter of all likely voters and a group considered McGinn's base—and still 19 percent of these younger voters haven't made up their minds. Voters of the same age who have made up their minds support McGinn by a 49 percent to 33 percent margin. That's a 26 percent lead. Looking at a larger chunk of the electorate, again by age, voters under 50 years old who have decided support McGinn by a five-point margin. Overall this group makes up 57 percent of all likely Seattle voters and they are 14 percent undecided (compared to 10 percent of voters over 50), so the largest age demographics prefer McGinn and they are also the majority of undecided voters.

But Mallahan may have the upper hand—that is, if younger voters are fairly represented, which they may not be, considering the biases of SurveyUSA's methodology. Undecided voters over 50 years old—who make up 43 percent of all voters—are trending toward him by a 12 point margin, far more than the lead for McGinn among younger voters.

Another metric that seems to give Mallahan a boost is gender. Although men are evenly split on the candidates (one point difference), women prefer Mallahan by a four points. And 15 percent of women are undecided, six percent more than men.

Undecided voters also don't seem impressed by McGinn's softening stance on the tunnel; 28 percent say McGinn's new position makes them less likely to vote for him but only 17 percent of undecideds say they're more likely to vote for him. Fifty percent don't give a shit about his new position on the tunnel.

A few other interesting points Mallahan's holds strong support among Republicans, conservatives, and moderates. Mallahan has also been moderately more successful at wooing Nickels voters—49 percent of them now support Mallahan and 40 percent support McGinn. Voters who make less than $50,000 a year—working class folks, not surprisingly—support McGinn by a 10-point margin. But the working class folks making under $50,000 a year are less than one-third of all likely voters.