Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Politics / Homo R-71: Nate Silver Gives 10-1 Odds Against It Being Rejected
Posted by Dan Savage on Tue, Nov 3, 2009 at 2:31 PM
Nate Silver at 538 believes that Washington state voters will approve R-71...
Washington is similar to Maine in certain respects, being white and fairly secular, and since I think the pro-gay marriage side is more likely than not to prevail in Maine, you might think I feel the same way about the initiative in Washington state. Indeed I do feel that way, although the initiatives are not directly comparable. On the one hand, Referendum 71 does not go as far as Maine's Question 1 or California's Proposition 8 since it seeks to reaffirm an "everything but marriage" bill that does not formally bestow the title of marriage upon same-sex couples. On the other hand, a rejection of the referendum would not overturn Washington's 2007 domestic partnership law, but instead only the expanded, marriage-like benefits that were afforded to those couples this year.Were Washington to vote on a measure to ban domestic partnership outright, it would almost certainly fail and fail badly: by a 58-42 margin, according to my statistical model. A measure to ban gay marriage but not domestic partnership would be much closer; I have such a measure failing 52.5-47.5, but there is a good deal of uncertainty there, and in an off-year election the numbers might be closer to 50:50. Referendum 71 appears to be polling somewhere in between those two goalposts, which makes sense, since it takes Washington somewhere in between domestic partnership and full-blown marriage.
There is also arguably less uncertainty about the outcome in Washington than in Maine. This is because, as in California, most Washingtonians vote by mail, and SurveyUSA has the Approve side leading 53-42 among those who have already voted. A small bit of good fortune for the Approve side is that there is a highly competitive mayoral race in Seattle, which might encourage turnout in that obviously very liberal corner of the state.
Nate Silver has been pretty much right about everything over the last two years, so... fingers crossed.
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4
well, that settles my stomach a little, but if you're that lazy lefty that hasn't yet voted, get your ass to a ballot drop box
( http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/voti… ) ASAP!!!! They are open until 8PM!
( http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/voti… ) ASAP!!!! They are open until 8PM!
7
Come celebrate and let's have a discussion about HOW TO NEVER HAVE OUR RIGHTS VOTED FOR AGAIN:
Sherry Wolf Speaks: We’ve Only Just Begun to Fight
What’s Next for the LGBT Civil Rights Movement
LGBT Equality Panel and Rally featuring Sherry Wolf
7:00 pm, November 7, 2009
University of Washington, Sieg Hall, Room 134
LGBT Equality Panel and Rally: $5
Sexuality and Socialism
10:30 am, November 8, 2009
University of Washington, Thomson Hall
Single Conference Session: $5
Entire conference is $20-50 sliding scale, Pre-Register online at nwsocialistconference.org or at any ISO meeting or event.
Fresh from the National Equality March in Washington, DC, activist and author Sherry Wolf will be speaking twice at the University of Washington in Seattle as part of the Northwest Socialist Conference, organized by the International Socialist Organization.
On Saturday, November 7, at 7pm, she will be the keynote speaker on a panel entitled "We've Only Just Begun to Fight: What's Next for the LGBT Civil Rights Movement?" along with Seattle lgbt activist Lonnie Lopez and Portland lgbt activist Camille Avian-White. On Sunday, November 8, at 10.30am, she will be giving a talk on her recently published book "Sexuality and Socialism: The History, Politics, and Theory of LGBT Liberation." For more info and to get tickets, visit http://nwsocialistconference.org.
Sherry Wolf is the author of Sexuality and Socialism (Haymarket 2009), associate editor of the International Socialist Review and a National Equality March speaker and Steering Committee member. She is a leading member of the International Socialist Organization. Wolf is an associate editor of the International Socialist Review and has written for Alternet, Znet, Counterpunch, DissidentVoice, MrZine, New Politics, Socialist Worker, and many other progressive publications and Web sites. She is a popular public speaker on campuses nationwide and has appeared on radio shows from Pacifica’s Democracy Now! to NPR-affiliate KALW’s Your Call. Wolf is a long-time social justice activist since her student days in the anti-apartheid campus divestment movement through to today’s struggle for equal marriage rights. She graduated from Northwestern University with honors in Philosophy, yet adamantly agrees with Karl Marx: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it.”
Sherry’s recent articles and talks:
No more waiting for crumbs:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/09/18/no…
We’ve just begun to fight:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/10/16/ju…
The disgusting sports sex scare:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/09/16/di…
The fight for LGBT equality on the job:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/08/11/lg…
The myth of the Black-gay divide:
http://socialistworker.org/2008/11/11/my…
Prop 8 is Going Down:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKu9w4p30…
Sexuality and Socialism:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXqc7m81v…
Cleve Jones, Sherry Wolf, and the Cast of Hair at the National Equality March:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2Vtp2mNK…
Sponsored by International Socialist Organization Seattle and Portland branches, Socialist Worker, Haymarket Books and the International Socialist Review
For local information please contact nwconference@seattleiso.org or click seattleiso.org or portlandsocialists.org to connect with your local ISO branch.
More...
Sherry Wolf Speaks: We’ve Only Just Begun to Fight
What’s Next for the LGBT Civil Rights Movement
LGBT Equality Panel and Rally featuring Sherry Wolf
7:00 pm, November 7, 2009
University of Washington, Sieg Hall, Room 134
LGBT Equality Panel and Rally: $5
Sexuality and Socialism
10:30 am, November 8, 2009
University of Washington, Thomson Hall
Single Conference Session: $5
Entire conference is $20-50 sliding scale, Pre-Register online at nwsocialistconference.org or at any ISO meeting or event.
Fresh from the National Equality March in Washington, DC, activist and author Sherry Wolf will be speaking twice at the University of Washington in Seattle as part of the Northwest Socialist Conference, organized by the International Socialist Organization.
On Saturday, November 7, at 7pm, she will be the keynote speaker on a panel entitled "We've Only Just Begun to Fight: What's Next for the LGBT Civil Rights Movement?" along with Seattle lgbt activist Lonnie Lopez and Portland lgbt activist Camille Avian-White. On Sunday, November 8, at 10.30am, she will be giving a talk on her recently published book "Sexuality and Socialism: The History, Politics, and Theory of LGBT Liberation." For more info and to get tickets, visit http://nwsocialistconference.org.
Sherry Wolf is the author of Sexuality and Socialism (Haymarket 2009), associate editor of the International Socialist Review and a National Equality March speaker and Steering Committee member. She is a leading member of the International Socialist Organization. Wolf is an associate editor of the International Socialist Review and has written for Alternet, Znet, Counterpunch, DissidentVoice, MrZine, New Politics, Socialist Worker, and many other progressive publications and Web sites. She is a popular public speaker on campuses nationwide and has appeared on radio shows from Pacifica’s Democracy Now! to NPR-affiliate KALW’s Your Call. Wolf is a long-time social justice activist since her student days in the anti-apartheid campus divestment movement through to today’s struggle for equal marriage rights. She graduated from Northwestern University with honors in Philosophy, yet adamantly agrees with Karl Marx: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it.”
Sherry’s recent articles and talks:
No more waiting for crumbs:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/09/18/no…
We’ve just begun to fight:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/10/16/ju…
The disgusting sports sex scare:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/09/16/di…
The fight for LGBT equality on the job:
http://socialistworker.org/2009/08/11/lg…
The myth of the Black-gay divide:
http://socialistworker.org/2008/11/11/my…
Prop 8 is Going Down:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKu9w4p30…
Sexuality and Socialism:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXqc7m81v…
Cleve Jones, Sherry Wolf, and the Cast of Hair at the National Equality March:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2Vtp2mNK…
Sponsored by International Socialist Organization Seattle and Portland branches, Socialist Worker, Haymarket Books and the International Socialist Review
For local information please contact nwconference@seattleiso.org or click seattleiso.org or portlandsocialists.org to connect with your local ISO branch.
8
Snohomish:
http://www.co.snohomish.wa.us/documents/…
Pierce:
http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/abtus/ouro…
Whatcom:
http://www.whatcomcounty.us/auditor/elec…
Kitsap:
http://www.kitsapgov.com/aud/elections/b…
Find yours on your county auditor's website here:
http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/aud…
http://www.co.snohomish.wa.us/documents/…
Pierce:
http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/abtus/ouro…
Whatcom:
http://www.whatcomcounty.us/auditor/elec…
Kitsap:
http://www.kitsapgov.com/aud/elections/b…
Find yours on your county auditor's website here:
http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/aud…
9
Nate ran Prop 8 as an extremely cautious no, 55-45, and the margin he later gave was about 5 points, which means it was really 50/50. Of course "Yes" squeaked by. He predicted this by displaying the X factor of the black/latino vote and their apparent support for Obama but approval of Prop 8, which did indeed help in part to turn the tide.
Ref 71 he has running at 90-10 in favor of equality with turnout in Seattle as the major X factor. For the record, Seattle's turnout as a proportion of King County turnout so far is the same as it was last year, which was a major win for progressive measures.
Either way, get this election over with.
Ref 71 he has running at 90-10 in favor of equality with turnout in Seattle as the major X factor. For the record, Seattle's turnout as a proportion of King County turnout so far is the same as it was last year, which was a major win for progressive measures.
Either way, get this election over with.
11
pretty much everything right?
you seen the 2009 PECOTA card for Casey McGehee? .230/.286/.344
not even close . . .
actual . . . .301/.360/.499
let's not EVEN bring up Wandy Rodriguez in 2007
sheesh . . . pretty much right about everything . . . .
you seen the 2009 PECOTA card for Casey McGehee? .230/.286/.344
not even close . . .
actual . . . .301/.360/.499
let's not EVEN bring up Wandy Rodriguez in 2007
sheesh . . . pretty much right about everything . . . .
12
5:2 odd for "no on 1" in Maine. If the turnout is as large as the Sec. of State there thinks it is, that's a decent sign Nate's right.
17
Oh please, oh please, oh please. If for no other reason than to SHUT UP the bigots who keep claiming no pro-gay-family measure will ever pass by popular vote. Oh please.
I voted two weeks ago. I checked the status of my ballot today, and it was received and counted. Where's yours? Every single one is going to count. Get that sucker in the mail, STAT!
I voted two weeks ago. I checked the status of my ballot today, and it was received and counted. Where's yours? Every single one is going to count. Get that sucker in the mail, STAT!
18
GOD DESTROYED SODOM AND GOMORRAH BECAUSE HE HATES HOMOSEXUALISM. IT IS EVIL,QUEER, PERVERTED, FILLED WITH DECEASE, BUT HE HAS FORGIVEN YOU AND IF YOU TURN FROM YOUR EVIL WAYS HE WILL GIVE YOU LIFE. YOU ARE DEAD BUT HE WANTS YOU TO FOLLOW HIS WAYS AND TRUST IN HIS SON AND RECIEVE A NEW HEART.
19
God destroyed Sodom & Gomorrah because homosexualism is evil, perverted, diviant, abusive and demoralizing. But you have been forgiven and he proved this by being cusified and ressurected and whats to ressurect you from death also. But you must turn from your evil and wicked ways and follow Him and trust in His way.
23
I don't know if anyone else has noticed this about Obama's listing of GLBT issues, but I just thought Mr. Savage would find it interesting. Did you noticed how on his website when he was a candidate for the Democratic party he specifically listed 7 items regarding his positions on GLBT rights. Then when he was a candidate for the general election the list was whittled down to 4 items. Then when he won and changed the whitehouse.gov website, he placed GLBT rights in the issues section with 3 items pointed out. Then a month or two later GLBT issues were swallowed into the general civil rights issues. And now I can't even find it listed anywhere under issues, except for a few general remarks under anti-discrimination laws. Wasn't sure if anyone else noticed this.
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