Find Your Valentine
Slog
News & ArtsMonday, November 2, 2009
Politics The SurveyUSA Poll
Posted by Eli Sanders on Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 5:29 PM
As leaked to Slog earlier, and now reported on the teevee:
The race for Seattle Mayor is a virtual tie the day before the election, according to the final KING 5 News poll before votes are counted.The poll, conducted over the weekend by SurveyUSA, has Joe Mallahan ahead of Mike McGinn, 45 percent to 43 percent, with 12 percent still undecided. With a margin of error of ± 4.1 percent, it’s anybody's race.
And:
Dow Constantine has surged ahead of Susan Hutchison in the race for King County Executive.The poll... gives Constantine 53 percent of the vote over Hutchison's 43 percent. Five percent of voters remain undecided.
2
I hope Mike can swing it. All I'm truly convinced of is that McGinn will be a far meatier object of fun as mayor than that cardboard cutout he's struggled so hard to outwit.
That's how Mike got my vote in the primary, too. Hoo boy, whatta town, this.
That's how Mike got my vote in the primary, too. Hoo boy, whatta town, this.
4
@3: The fact that even a Malladroit like you is revising down your predictions is very delicious to me.
I predict a Dewey moment for you and Joe Sixpack.
I predict a Dewey moment for you and Joe Sixpack.
5
Mr Baker (and Ralph), you should be pretty scared after a SurveyUSA poll (the same folks that have consistently under-represented McGinn's support) shows Mallahan with only a 2% lead and over 75% of the undecideds going to McGinn over the last two weeks. Also, the crosstabs of this poll (see question 4) show that it over-represented Mallahan supporters, even more reason for you to be worried.
Bold prediction: McGinn 53%, Mallahan 46%, 1% other
Bold prediction: McGinn 53%, Mallahan 46%, 1% other
6
@4, I have been predicting over at Publicola for a month that Mallahan would get 51%, that the end pecentages would be the same as the poll on the tunnel, and that McGinn's high water mark is 48%.
I have not "revised down" anything since the Primary.
I have not "revised down" anything since the Primary.
9
Prediction: McGinn 98%, Mallahan 2%. Who else but Mallahan's tunnel contractor buddies would be dumb enough to vote for him? He doesn't even have any positions on anything else.
10
I predict that the final vote count will cause severe gnashing of teeth amongst the Olympia elite and their pawns in Seattle.
Which, quite frankly, is good.
Which, quite frankly, is good.
11
Just dropped off two votes for McGinn and Constantine this afternoon at a polling drop box. Tomorrow should be interesting.
12
@7, I did put thought into it, and with each passing week the poll numbers have ran the trend right up to the tunnel poll. Just about half either wanted the tunnel or want to just move forward (wtf do you think Joe robo-talks "moving forward").
McGinn threw out policy papers right after the Primary, trying to crawl out of the one issue box. His defining Primary issue was an anchor for two weeks. The Nickels folks went to the tunnel, they will tomorrow too.
I endorsed both in the Primary, and McGinn convinced me to support Mallahan for the General election.
McGinn threw out policy papers right after the Primary, trying to crawl out of the one issue box. His defining Primary issue was an anchor for two weeks. The Nickels folks went to the tunnel, they will tomorrow too.
I endorsed both in the Primary, and McGinn convinced me to support Mallahan for the General election.
13
McGinn has now gotten to the "Oppose" the tunnel percentage, 43%
Mallahan has been running on the "Continue to move ahead" 50%, which is 1 point ahead of actually supporting the tunnel.
I think Mallahan has made the message his meme. They are, and have been battling over 4%, 50 to 46. I think the 4% breaks to MicGinn 3 to 1, and he loses.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo…
Mallahan has been running on the "Continue to move ahead" 50%, which is 1 point ahead of actually supporting the tunnel.
I think Mallahan has made the message his meme. They are, and have been battling over 4%, 50 to 46. I think the 4% breaks to MicGinn 3 to 1, and he loses.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo…
14
Ever since the primary, I've been saying that McGinn would win if he'd step back on the tunnel. No doubt Mike read my comments and responded accordingly.
Mike, if you win, you owe me.
Mike, if you win, you owe me.
15
meanwhile, today I personally got two people who hadn't voted yet to vote for Mike.
Life is sweet.
Life is sweet.
16
@12: Did you even look at the crosstabs? Only 2/3rds of the voters polled considered the tunnel "somewhat" or "very" important, and even that doesn't take into consideration whether or not they actually want the tunnel or not. It's safe to say that it could easily be 33% pro, 33% con. Your "tunnel poll" metric is a false correlation. It also puts you at odds with reality, because on the issue of the tunnel, McGinn and Mallahan even out.
More than that, according to the crosstabs, Nickels voters were more likely to not be swayed by McGinn's change, but of the remaining 46%, 26% of the voters said it made them more likely to vote for him versus 20% less likely. The idea that the "Nickels folks went to the tunnel" is also a false correlation. No, scratch that, you pulled that out of your ass.
Finally, we have a clear indication of over-representation. Mallahan was sampled 3 points higher than his actual Primary placing. McGinn was sampled about 3 points lower than his Primary placing. And this, of course, disregards the clear conservative bias of roughly 2.8 points that runs through landline-only polling (ref. 538, posts tagged "cellphones"). What sort of issue is road expansion? Progressive or conservative? Hm, let's see...
More than that, according to the crosstabs, Nickels voters were more likely to not be swayed by McGinn's change, but of the remaining 46%, 26% of the voters said it made them more likely to vote for him versus 20% less likely. The idea that the "Nickels folks went to the tunnel" is also a false correlation. No, scratch that, you pulled that out of your ass.
Finally, we have a clear indication of over-representation. Mallahan was sampled 3 points higher than his actual Primary placing. McGinn was sampled about 3 points lower than his Primary placing. And this, of course, disregards the clear conservative bias of roughly 2.8 points that runs through landline-only polling (ref. 538, posts tagged "cellphones"). What sort of issue is road expansion? Progressive or conservative? Hm, let's see...
17
Yes, I have looked at the crosstabs, and clearly both candidates did too.
the larger group just want to move forward. That is the first thing out of Mallahan's mouth on why he wants to be mayor.
He is running on moving forward, while framing his opponent as wanting a do-over.
the larger group just want to move forward. That is the first thing out of Mallahan's mouth on why he wants to be mayor.
He is running on moving forward, while framing his opponent as wanting a do-over.
18
@17: My question was purely rhetorical, I know you didn't look at the crosstabs in any meaningful or thoughtful way. Your reply only confirms that remark.
For the record, you've said nothing of substance beyond this pleasant "Mallahan wants to move forward" meme that is utterly unsubstantiated and has no basis in fact. Even on the tunnel, Mallahan is already an obstructionist by opposing an LID, transit improvements, the head tax and the parking tax, all essential to financing the tunnel and related improvements; there's also the Mercer project, which he opposed even while claiming to have a deeper understanding of the tunnel. He also opposed getting a new police chief as soon as possible, a voter-mandated transit project and a whole basket of progressive initiatives.
And yet, you make up the bulk of Malladroit rah-rah-rahing. You're like Will, but without facts, figures or common sense to back you up. Just political jargon and empty posturing. To say you were unfamiliar with even the most basic facts of this election would be entirely too generous.
For the record, you've said nothing of substance beyond this pleasant "Mallahan wants to move forward" meme that is utterly unsubstantiated and has no basis in fact. Even on the tunnel, Mallahan is already an obstructionist by opposing an LID, transit improvements, the head tax and the parking tax, all essential to financing the tunnel and related improvements; there's also the Mercer project, which he opposed even while claiming to have a deeper understanding of the tunnel. He also opposed getting a new police chief as soon as possible, a voter-mandated transit project and a whole basket of progressive initiatives.
And yet, you make up the bulk of Malladroit rah-rah-rahing. You're like Will, but without facts, figures or common sense to back you up. Just political jargon and empty posturing. To say you were unfamiliar with even the most basic facts of this election would be entirely too generous.
19
"Nickels folks went to the tunnel" folks, Nickels money, the unions. I pulled that out of McGinn's mouth, you cal call that my "ass" if you want.
Their guy, Nickels, lost, and only one of the two primary winners was the more likely magnet.
I stand by my prediction, 51-48-1
Mallahan, McGinn, other.
Their guy, Nickels, lost, and only one of the two primary winners was the more likely magnet.
I stand by my prediction, 51-48-1
Mallahan, McGinn, other.
21
@19/@20: I don't imagine anything, I'm well aware of your shortcomings and lack of substance. It's entertaining, though, to point out that the entirety of your support for Malladroit is a visceral reaction to your own flawed interpretation of a single issue.
An issue that candidates and politicians will flee within months.
I love the reaction it gets out of you. You readily expose yourself as someone with little understanding of the issues and more than an ounce of pre-programmed bias.
An issue that candidates and politicians will flee within months.
I love the reaction it gets out of you. You readily expose yourself as someone with little understanding of the issues and more than an ounce of pre-programmed bias.
Advertisement
Most Commented on Slog
-
SL Letter of the Day: Pill The Homos! by Dan Savage
-
Dear Huffington Post... by Dan Savage
-
Slog Bible Study: Deuteronomy 21:10-14 by Goldy
-
The AP Is Reporting That Whitney Houston Is Dead by Paul Constant
-
Because Guns Make Us Safer by Goldy
-
Because Guns Make Us More Safer by Goldy
-
The Rick Santorum Rally in Tacoma Probably Could Have Gone Better by Paul Constant
-
SL Letter of the Day: Daddy Loves Who? by Dan Savage
-
Gay Kids Are Still Killing Themselves by Dan Savage
-
Gregoire: "This is signed!" by Eli Sanders
RSS
Facebook
Twitter
Comments (23) RSS