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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Politics Re: Constantine Pulling Ahead of Hutchison

Posted by Eli Sanders on Tue, Oct 27, 2009 at 9:44 AM

A new poll out this morning from the University of Washington confirms what Dow Constantine's campaign has been saying: the results in the race for King County executive have flipped, with Constantine now beating Hutchison 47 to 34 among likely voters.

The key finding: when this poll is compared with the Oct. 13 SurveyUSA poll, Constantine's support appears to be rising among Democrats.

This suggests that the Constantine campaign's relentless recitation of three areas in which Hutchison fails to be what the county wants—she's anti-choice, bad on the environment, and has zero political experience—is working. Democrats who may have been confused by this becoming a "non-partisan" race this year, or who may have been flirting with the idea of backing a conservative who seemed like a nice person when she was on television, are coming home.

Other findings from the new poll:

Seattle mayor's race: Mallahan 44, McGinn 36 among likely voters.

R-71: "Yes" 57, "No" 38 among likely voters.

I-1033: "Yes" 40, "No" 49 among likely voters.

In other words, if this poll is correct, and if the election were held today: Constantine wins the exec's seat, Mallahan is our new mayor, R-71 passes by a wide margin, and I-1033 goes down in flames.

UPDATE:

And, a key finding from the polling in the Seattle mayor's race: McGinn's change of position on the tunnel hurt him.

Instead of grabbing a bunch of voters who were ready to like him but for his tunnel position, he lost six points.

Comments (19) RSS

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Last night Tim Eyman, the ghoul behind I-1033, was at Edmonds Community College for a Conversation about his latest canard w/ a local political consultant. When he went to do his microphone check this is what he came up with: 'I am god'. Nice.

Posted by gownofhumility on October 27, 2009 at 9:48 AM

well, other than the mcginn loss, that'd be the best outcome

Posted by holz on October 27, 2009 at 9:52 AM

I liked the Seattle P-I (online) headline about this poll:

"Mallahan tops McGinn"

I know quite a few guys over at CC's who would enjoy watching that!

But all you 19% undecideds out there could turn this around and make it so that McGinn tops Mallahan, which would be a better outcome for all.

Posted by Jakey on October 27, 2009 at 9:56 AM

I think that if the elections were held yesterday, most people would respond with "What? Fuck, I missed it!"

Posted by The Amazing Jim

on October 27, 2009 at 9:56 AM

5 Comment Pulled (Spam) Comment Policy

6 Comment Pulled (Spam) Comment Policy

It's in the bag. No need to vote.

Posted by What for? on October 27, 2009 at 10:13 AM

The words "gay," "same-sex" and "LGBT" are absent from most of the official Approve 71 materials

Blatant lie.

VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION LONNIE

Posted by Baconcat on October 27, 2009 at 10:13 AM

Those moody blue backgrounds (folded velvet? deep tones of dusk?) really enhance the authority of these poll results.

Posted by Fnarf

on October 27, 2009 at 10:18 AM

A flip flop negative is as good as something positive if voters can't find a reason to like either one.

The anti tunnel and everything else cult is going down.

And the winner - Greg Nickels and revenge politics.

Oh, really..... not in nice Seattle.

And, Mc Ginn is to too fat fat as well.

Posted by Revenge politics bite you in the big fat ass on October 27, 2009 at 10:19 AM

It makes sense that McGinn would pull 41% of the "decided" 18 to 40s to Mallahan's mere 18%, but to have 44% of his favored age range still "undecided" by now - ouch.

Posted by gloomy gus on October 27, 2009 at 10:28 AM

#8

Lonnie Lame Brain - the two commercials I have seen on TV are BOTH real life lesbians in the open ... did you think the two old loving ladies were sisters?

Get a life. Your whining is getting stale, attack the far right and QUIT raging on other LGBT people.

By the way, the film fest was chanting " we're here we're Queer " -- OK by you?. There is no closet in Seattle, quit making it up.

Lonnie, did you vote yet? Call all your friends to vote? Post to all your lists to vote?

Get on it.

APPROVE REF- 71 --- VOTE

Posted by Voter Nag and Pinko Fag on October 27, 2009 at 10:29 AM

Likely voters - translation: they're not counting young people (who haven't voted in 3 or 4 of the last 4 elections).

So every young person who votes is one they didn't count.

SEND IN YOUR BALLOT! or drop it off free at the City of Seattle Neighborhood Centers (and other King County locations)

Posted by Will in Seattle

on October 27, 2009 at 11:21 AM

The graph for this shows age/sex breakdown and pol choice breakdown, but lacks numbers for them, so we can't tell if (as do most phone polls) it oversampled older males. Some methodology linkage showing how they corrected for the behaviors of cell phone users and women who tend to block/ignore calls from unknown callers might be useful as well, plus an LD/econ breakdown of n voters per grouping.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on October 27, 2009 at 12:02 PM

Those results are acceptable as long as Carr loses as well.

Posted by michael strangeways

on October 27, 2009 at 12:08 PM

@15 - sounds fair to me.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on October 27, 2009 at 1:16 PM

This is only a statistical sampling in time more than a week out from the election. I-1033 has not been defeated - that requires everyone voting No who opposes it. Off year election have lower turnout.

If everyone tired of seeing Eyman initiatives on the ballot actually votes that would send a strong message that the public is tired of his incessant anti-government, anti-tax measures. So send Eyman a message - VOTE and get your friends and family to vote NO on I-1033.

I-1033 is trying to freeze public spending during a recession and is a wealth transfer scheme that gives a huge tax break to rich property owners while shifting more tax burden onto low and middle income taxpayers. Vote and Vote NO on I-1033.

Posted by Steve Zemke