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News & ArtsMonday, October 26, 2009
Politics Constantine Pulling Ahead of Hutchison
Posted by Eli Sanders on Mon, Oct 26, 2009 at 3:40 PM
At least, according a recent campaign fundraising e-mail that shares some of Constantine's internal polling:
Our latest poll, taken just 2 nights ago, shows us beating Susan Hutchison 47 to 40.
If true, that's a big reversal of the trend picked up by SurveyUSA's public polling—and, of course, great news for Constantine.
We'll see what the next public poll says.
2
The cell phone thing didn't make a difference in 2008. Don't get excited over leaks of internal polling because we have no idea if that is really what the poll said and, for that matter, if this is one of 7 polls this week...
3
meanwhile BaristaPoll™ (which has a 6.18 fold higher accuracy (+/- 98.7) than SurveyUSA over the last 17 polling events (+/- 9.3)) openly mutters: Hutchison is toast (survey error estimated to be six unreached cell-phones with an error in the error estimate of 73.472%)
4
Can't we effing toss out all the land-line-only poll data already?!?
After the results from 2008 why the hell does anyone even report that crap as factual anymore???
After the results from 2008 why the hell does anyone even report that crap as factual anymore???
5
Oh, I don't know, probably because I literally watched my son and his gf both not respond to pollsters phoning them on their cell phones, while I answered the pollsters on my land line.
All registered to vote. All voted. But only one counted out of three calls.
All registered to vote. All voted. But only one counted out of three calls.
7
It really seems like polling companies should have solved the landline problem by now, but it looks like they haven't. Not only was McGinn polling 3rd days before the primary (he ended up 1st), check out the numbers for Dow and Susan. This makes me feel a lot better about the election; I cannot believe King County would elect Susan Hutchison.
The only primary candidates who underperformed their polling results were Susan Hutchison, Stan Lippman, and Goodspaceguy, which suggests only crazy people have landlines any more (sorry Will!).
Six days before the primary, Survey USA poll results:
* Dow 20%
* Susan 37%
* Undecided 15%
Actual primary election results:
* Dow 27%
* Susan 33%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo…
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200…
The only primary candidates who underperformed their polling results were Susan Hutchison, Stan Lippman, and Goodspaceguy, which suggests only crazy people have landlines any more (sorry Will!).
Six days before the primary, Survey USA poll results:
* Dow 20%
* Susan 37%
* Undecided 15%
Actual primary election results:
* Dow 27%
* Susan 33%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo…
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200…
8
Not sure why you guys are so worried given the fate of Dino Rossi and Mike McGavick and other Libopublicans in King County...
9
@7 - I'm waiting for the new iPhone that replaces your wristwatch - it's in Taipei and Japan right now but not in the USA until 2010 for Xmas.
11
Hey aren't any Dow supporters poetic?
He's getting killed in the
"The Dow Constantine Limerick Contest"
soundpolitics.com/archives/013456.html
He's getting killed in the
"The Dow Constantine Limerick Contest"
soundpolitics.com/archives/013456.html
13
If you look at the series of SurveyUSA polls for Cantwell/McGavick 2006 and Gregoire/Rossi 2008, you see a clear trend.
The Republicans did relatively well in early polls, while lots of people were still undecided. Over time, the undecided percentage shrinks and the Democrat percentage rises.
It seems conservatives make up their mind early on, whereas moderate liberals take their time before they ultimately commit to the better candidate.
The Republicans did relatively well in early polls, while lots of people were still undecided. Over time, the undecided percentage shrinks and the Democrat percentage rises.
It seems conservatives make up their mind early on, whereas moderate liberals take their time before they ultimately commit to the better candidate.
14
LET US PRAY - AS METAPHOR
REMEBER TO VOTE APPROVE REF 71 - CANCEL OUT THE VOTE OF A BIGOT - THAT IS FUN TO THINK ABOUT
REMEBER TO VOTE APPROVE REF 71 - CANCEL OUT THE VOTE OF A BIGOT - THAT IS FUN TO THINK ABOUT
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