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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

City About That Poll

Posted by on Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Things look bad for mayoral contender Mike McGinn. Right? SurveyUSA reported last night that McGinn holds 36 percent support to Joe Mallahan's 43 percent—and McGinn trails among all demographics except liberals, Asian Americans, and people making under $50,000 a year.

But I'm becoming skeptical of the recent local polls from SurveyUSA*. In the two most closely watched races this year, Seattle Mayor and King County Executive, SurveyUSA underestimated support for the liberal candidates. For instance, the final poll before the primary election showed county executive candidate Dow Constantine with only 13 percent support—18 points behind rival Susan Hutchison. But results from the primary election, six days after the poll was released, show Constantine with 27 percent of the vote—just six points behind Hutchison.

Likewise, the poll for mayor just before the primary showed McGinn with 16 percent of the vote, five points behind Nickels. But the primary results showed him with 27 percent of the vote, in first place.

Another Mallahan vs. McGinn poll showed them evenly tied, with support for Mallahan slipping on all fronts, but now he's gaining. Is SurveyUSA's methodology off? I don't know, of course. But the company uses robo-calls, which are arguably flawed because they question the first person to answer the phone in a household. They also won't call cell phones, which is the only phone a lot of younger, progressive voters have. In addition, the universe of "likely voters" could be skewed this year from the older voters who typical dominate off-year elections. Lots of young voters registered to vote in 2008—for Obamania—and now the campaign for I-1033 and especially R-71 are targtting those younger voters to turn out. Which would help McGinn.

But, obviously, some of the discrepancy between polls and results exists because undecided voters made up their minds (who doesn't know who they're voting for six days before an election?). But if that's what's making the difference, then there's even more hope for McGinn, as 21 percent of voters are still undecided in that race, says the recent poll. And, if Slog comments are any indication—the ultimate gauge of voter attitudes everywhere—McGinn is swaying lots of undecided and Mallahan votes by announcing (after this poll was conducted) that he'd tolerate the tunnel.

* Yeah, yeah, I rejoice when polls look good for guys we like and dismiss them when they support vote-evading, corporate-lexicon-spouting slouches. Acknowledged.

 

Comments (22) RSS

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1
"McGinn trails among all demographics except people making under $50,000"

AKA, the stupid, people who like free shit and/or the barista class (middle class, college educated white kids roughing it for a while).
Posted by Davy Jones on October 21, 2009 at 12:26 PM
2
@1 Or the nonprofit class, as opposed to the "Complete Asshole / Davy Jones" class.
Posted by kurisu on October 21, 2009 at 12:33 PM
3
fivethirtyeight ranks them as one of the most accurate, although that is on a national scale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/la…
Posted by vailripper on October 21, 2009 at 12:38 PM
4
All mail voting will also boost the turnout. Not sure who that favors - perhaps McGinn since older voters are more likely to vote under either system and the all mail might bring out more younger voters. I'm dubious of the cell phone argument. Have you looked at the crosstabs from the poll? Does it seem skewed to older, conservative voters? Maybe, but I don't see it.
Posted by Pete on October 21, 2009 at 12:49 PM
5
"Or the nonprofit class"

Ahhhh, the 'poor by choice' class.

Again, like baristas, stupid fucking white kids with college degrees who like free shit.
Posted by Davy Jones on October 21, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Baconcat 6
Oh, you want data, huh? Is that what you want, Dom? Some data? I'll give you data, I'll give you some data hard.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyr…

Using a basic progression of data, table 2b shows that Jul-Dec, a full third of 18-24 year olds and 40% of 25-29 year olds did not have landlines. As it should progress, 35% of 18-24 year olds and 43% of 25-29 year olds will not have landlines as of June of this year.

It also shows that most people who have cell phones-only are typically:
-Childless
-Students
-Renters
-City-dwellers

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone…

Pollster shows that cell-phone only voters slant more progressive, but because the percentage at the time of their poll was fairly low, it was hard to take a conclusive stance.

Of course, the CDC info should be enough to show that it's hard to take a survey in Seattle too seriously. Just keep on with the GOTV.
Posted by Baconcat on October 21, 2009 at 12:55 PM
Dominic Holden 7
Gold star for Baconcat.
Posted by Dominic Holden on October 21, 2009 at 12:59 PM
8
-Childless
-Students
-Renters
-City-dwellers

AKA groups that have the lowest voter turnout and, luckily, the least political clout (except for rich city dwellers of course).
Posted by Davy Jones on October 21, 2009 at 1:01 PM
burgin22 9
Oh jesus, just give it up already. Your candidate is down and is most very likely going to lose. This just reeks of desperation.

(Oh and the whole "well see the polls don't call cell phone and you see cell phones...") has been thoroughly debunked. Google it.)
Posted by burgin22 http://www.zombo.com/ on October 21, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Will in Seattle 10
Man, a gold star. But Baconcat does deserve it.

Oh, news flash, most people are ditching their computers in favor of iPhones for FB. And they're NOT using those fancy eBook thingies you tech dweebs try to push - unless they're grad students or med students (have you ever TRIED to carry those books - many, just a three course Biochem PHD set is enough to kill most people).
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on October 21, 2009 at 1:24 PM
seandr 11
@8
Apparently, Mallahan has locked up the vote of assholes who hate their lives because they're trapped in a meaningless but decent paying job that is sucking their soul away so they try to make themselves feel better by dissing people who still have their youth and don't make as much as they do.
Posted by seandr on October 21, 2009 at 1:25 PM
seandr 12
@9
Debunked? Bullshit. Here's what SurveyUSA says about it:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/i-hav…
Posted by seandr on October 21, 2009 at 1:30 PM
burgin22 13
"...those who rely solely on cellphones were also significantly less likely to be registered to vote than their “cellphone mostly” counterparts and the public at large."

Cellphone Only? It Holds Little Sway in Polls
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/…

"A new Pew Research Center study finds that, while different demographically, Americans who mostly or exclusively rely on cell phones are not substantially different from the landline population in their basic political attitudes and preferences."

The Impact of "Cell-Onlys" on Public Opinion Polls
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/714/the-impa…
Posted by burgin22 http://www.zombo.com/ on October 21, 2009 at 1:49 PM
14
In an off year election, perhaps it is best for our candidates and positions are trailing...

Does Executive Hutchison scare you enough to make sure you vote? Does keeping rights out of the hands of minorities worry you enough to volunteer? Does Tim Eyeman screwing our governmental budgets into the ground drive you to write a check?

Really, it's past time to be talking to friends and neighbors, planting signs in Eastern WA, getting involved and making sure our ballots make it in with our votes marked and envelops signed.

Look at the polling numbers. Can we afford not to?
Posted by Remember what happened last time we lost? on October 21, 2009 at 1:54 PM
15
@6, 13: You're cheating by introducing actual data into the argument -- as opposed to wishful thinking and empty speculation.
Posted by bigyaz on October 21, 2009 at 1:57 PM
ralph 16
The cell phone issue is a red herring, I don't know if you can tie the demographics of this race to it (after all Mallahan is in the industry). You can still question the polls on other grounds, like the small sample size and the primitive nature of the questions asked, those are more legitimate issues. Perhaps the most important aspect is the fact that 50% of the voters in the primary voted against both candidates - they are what are called "soft votes". Whoever gets those softies to a) vote and b) vote for them will be the winner.

This election could go either way. It is still a toss up, but not because of cell phones.
Posted by ralph on October 21, 2009 at 2:01 PM
17
@6 and @7: what really matters is did SurveyUSA get the age distribution of likely voters right? Here is their distribution:

18 - 34: 25%
35 - 49: 32%
50 - 64: 25%
65+: 19%

Do you have a problem with this distribution?

What could screw up the poll is if there are inherent differences/preferences between exclusive cell phone users and cell phone users who also have a land line.
Posted by Pete on October 21, 2009 at 2:47 PM
18
Just found this on NYT from exit polls nationwide in 2008:

18-29: 18%
30-44: 29%
45-59: 30%
60+ : 23%

SurveyUSA probably has local exit poll data from the primary and last year's election, but this doesn't seem wildly different from what they used in the lastest Mayors poll.
Posted by Pete on October 21, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Baconcat 19
@13: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/r…

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/c…

Remember, Pew's basis is for determining cost-effectiveness, not validity. They make several caveats in their full report and acknowledge that there's a shift as more and more people ditch their landlines. Remember, too, that there should have been a 6-10 point shift in terms of phone ownership and usage status from the date of your reports to today's election.

Nate makes this salient point to drive this home:

Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama).


Who has the large volunteer base in this race?
Posted by Baconcat on October 21, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Will in Seattle 20
ring ring

who is it?

ring ring

another frickin call from someone i don't know

... ignored.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on October 21, 2009 at 3:16 PM
ralph 21
Will: The scary thing is that the phone wasn't ringing...
Posted by ralph on October 21, 2009 at 5:24 PM
22
damn it I need poll numbers on 1033 so I know how much to worry
Posted by lilzilla on October 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM

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