Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight:
Where I can "endorse" the frustration of many on the left, however, is on issues where popular sentiment seems to be on their side, such as on the public option or gays-in-the-military. Now, popular sentiment isn't everything—it may only go so far when competing against powerful institutions like the health care lobby. The status quo is usually the status quo for a reason, in other words. But what's been irking is the White House's lack of backbone when confronting these institutions. Take an issue like the military's ban on avowed gay and lesbian soldiers, for example, which polls suggest is unpopular by about a 3:2 margin. The received wisdom on this issue is that, although overturning the ban might be nominally popular, the "nays" are liable to be far more vocal than the "ayes".And you know what? The received wisdom might well be right. But I don't think those who elected Obama expected him to give deference to the received wisdom; on the contary, it was his rhetoric of transformation that distinguished him from Hillary Clinton. Since roughly the time of the Jeremiah Wright incident, however, virtually every time the Obama campaign/administration has had a choice between a bold action and a cautious one, it has taken the more cautious path.
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