Slog
News & ArtsTuesday, September 29, 2009
Politics The Switch
Posted by Charles Mudede on Tue, Sep 29, 2009 at 8:50 AM
As America is becoming more European, Germany is becoming more American...
The election results in Germany are the latest example of the decline of Europe’s traditional parties and the crisis of the social democratic ideology. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) remain the largest party in the German parliament despite losses in Sunday's elections, winning 33.8 percent of the vote. She secured a mandate to form a new coalition with the pro-business Liberal Democrats (FDP, 14.6 percent), which will succeed a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats (SPD). Focusing on economic reform, tax cuts and a return to nuclear power, the new government will mean a shift to the right in German politics...What is going in Germany? Tax cuts and deregulation? How is this possible? All of this spells disaster for Central Europe.
...The result is especially surprising against the backdrop of a financial crisis that has been ascribed to the neoliberal ideology by many. However, the FDP won the elections with a program based on neoliberal ideas of deregulation and tax cuts and returns to power 11 years after the end of the last conservative-liberal alliance under former chancellor Helmut Kohl.
1
Jesus, you are a dumb ass Chuck.
The last time you posted about Germany, you claimed that it was going socialist.
The last time you posted about Germany, you claimed that it was going socialist.
3
Could it be because Germany found out that the problem with liberal leftist policies is that you soon run out of other people's money?
6
Look, even with the CDU winning, Germany is still way to the left of the USA. Name any issue and the CDU is left left left of the Democrats. There is a good article about Europe and center parties in the NYT today. No need to be a prophet, just pay a little more attention. In the previous election 6 months ago, the CDU won big as well.
Socialism in the 20th century form that you seem to worship is mostly dead.
Socialism in the 20th century form that you seem to worship is mostly dead.
7
The sum of my experience with Germany or Germans involved a woman named Helga in thigh boots back in about 1975.
9
In German politics it's important to look at the big picture.
First of all, the national CDU is a center-right party in Germany, but it is not the equivalent of the Republicans in the U.S. It's more the equivalent of a "Blue Dog Democratic Party," if such a thing existed.
Although they are called "Christian Democrats," the "Christian" doesn't mean "fundamentalist" but instead means "mainline Protestant and Catholic." They mean Christian like your reasonable Lutheran and Catholic neighbors are Christian, not like megachurch pastors in the burbs.
The CDU is for tax cuts and regulation, yes, but they are also firmly behind the welfare state--Bismarck himself started the modern German welfare state. Plus, to say that they want "deregulation" is a bit silly: Germans LOVE regulations, and even conservatives LOVE regulations, so it's a bit relative. Germany is one of the most highly regulated societies on earth.
Also, it is not a party of social conservatives necessarily, or of homophobes, either. In fact, their coalition partner the FDP is led by openly gay Guido Westerwelle, who will likely be the next foreign minister.
Another point is that Germany traditionally leans a bit right; the Social Democrats have been in power in only 6 of the 16 parliaments since World War II (1969-1982 and 1998-2002). Otherwise, the CDU has been in power.
First of all, the national CDU is a center-right party in Germany, but it is not the equivalent of the Republicans in the U.S. It's more the equivalent of a "Blue Dog Democratic Party," if such a thing existed.
Although they are called "Christian Democrats," the "Christian" doesn't mean "fundamentalist" but instead means "mainline Protestant and Catholic." They mean Christian like your reasonable Lutheran and Catholic neighbors are Christian, not like megachurch pastors in the burbs.
The CDU is for tax cuts and regulation, yes, but they are also firmly behind the welfare state--Bismarck himself started the modern German welfare state. Plus, to say that they want "deregulation" is a bit silly: Germans LOVE regulations, and even conservatives LOVE regulations, so it's a bit relative. Germany is one of the most highly regulated societies on earth.
Also, it is not a party of social conservatives necessarily, or of homophobes, either. In fact, their coalition partner the FDP is led by openly gay Guido Westerwelle, who will likely be the next foreign minister.
Another point is that Germany traditionally leans a bit right; the Social Democrats have been in power in only 6 of the 16 parliaments since World War II (1969-1982 and 1998-2002). Otherwise, the CDU has been in power.
10
Also, in Charles's defense, polling has long indicated the SPD would do better this election, and I think they're a bit stunned they did so poorly. Also, the CDU actually lost votes compared to 2005, as well: the real winners in terms of votes gained over 2005 were the FDP, a center-right pro-business party, and the Greens (up 32 and 17 seats, respectively).
11
The so called conservative parties in Germany, France, and UK intend to keep in place their "socialized" systems of health care and other structures of generous social programs and fairly high taxes. These are the programs set up by social democrats/socialists/labor. The conservatives in these nations only intend to fine tune those programs, to better manage them, and not do away with them. When we see this in a time of unprecedented economic crisis, the worst for decades, and new ruling coalitions as in Germany that for once do not even include the social democrats, what it means is socialism is working, not that's it in disaster mode.
Good news, really. And shows what you get if you go for a medicare for all type system rather than the weak, confusing and inexplicable public option stand-in, already a concession to private insurers, and which now seems on the verge of dying in committee because our leaders forgot to get the votes of the opponents in exchange for that concession.
Good news, really. And shows what you get if you go for a medicare for all type system rather than the weak, confusing and inexplicable public option stand-in, already a concession to private insurers, and which now seems on the verge of dying in committee because our leaders forgot to get the votes of the opponents in exchange for that concession.
12
For those interested in real analysis:
1. Merkel is seen as having handled the economic crisis well. She did this without a massive stimulus package that Paul Krugman assured us we must have or we would all die. She did, however, throw the populists a few bones. The cash-for-clunkers idea started in Germany, as did the idea of dressing up this subsidy for the middle class and auto manufacurers as something "green".
2. The German left is badly splintered. The post-communist Linke and eco-fanatic Greens are pulling votes from the center-left SPD. That said, the total left-wing vote still went down compared to the last election.
3. While a right-wing victory looked less like a sure thing in the last few weeks, it always remained the most likely scenario. Polls had put the total right-wing share at ~65% a few weeks ago, and it had dropped to ~55% by the election. Even if it had eroded below 50%, the result would have been a continuing center-left/center-right "grand coalition", not a left-wing government. As usual, Charles is good for entertaining bolivation, and not much else.
By the way, I was in Germany last week. Oktoberfest was great, thank you.
1. Merkel is seen as having handled the economic crisis well. She did this without a massive stimulus package that Paul Krugman assured us we must have or we would all die. She did, however, throw the populists a few bones. The cash-for-clunkers idea started in Germany, as did the idea of dressing up this subsidy for the middle class and auto manufacurers as something "green".
2. The German left is badly splintered. The post-communist Linke and eco-fanatic Greens are pulling votes from the center-left SPD. That said, the total left-wing vote still went down compared to the last election.
3. While a right-wing victory looked less like a sure thing in the last few weeks, it always remained the most likely scenario. Polls had put the total right-wing share at ~65% a few weeks ago, and it had dropped to ~55% by the election. Even if it had eroded below 50%, the result would have been a continuing center-left/center-right "grand coalition", not a left-wing government. As usual, Charles is good for entertaining bolivation, and not much else.
By the way, I was in Germany last week. Oktoberfest was great, thank you.
13
The comments have been informative and, in some cases, heartening. I was worried when I saw that Germany was leaning right, not out of NAZI panic, but just because it seems utterly insane in the face of a global economic crisis spawned by deregulation, and especially in the face of our ecological problems. Call me uninformed, but I think extremely well-administered nuclear power might be a more effective compromise between ecology and the massive demands of the human beehive than the alternatives we currently have open to us. So really, I don't have too many total disagreements with this new government, despite being a fairly hard lefty.
Also, just like in the USA where splintered lefties have repeatedly left us in the clutches of evil, it will take more drubbing by conservatives to get those guys to the same table. I'm still worried we might hand the midterm elections to the fucking republicans again. Much more bothersome than Germany's situation.
Also, just like in the USA where splintered lefties have repeatedly left us in the clutches of evil, it will take more drubbing by conservatives to get those guys to the same table. I'm still worried we might hand the midterm elections to the fucking republicans again. Much more bothersome than Germany's situation.
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