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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Sports History and Odds

Posted by Chicago Fan on Thu, Sep 24, 2009 at 1:10 PM

So, the odds on this Sunday's Bears-Seahawks game have swung slightly more in the Bears' favor. After starting out favoring Seattle by 2.5 or 3 points, Chicago is now giving 1.5 to 2. Since bookies give any team 3 points for being at home, this swing represents almost a touchdown, but Seattle was never really favored. And who knows the NFL better than bettors?

Sportswriters. Well, not really. But the fact that Seattle isn't saying whether Seneca Wallace or Matt Hasselback will be starting suggests desperation on the part of Mora and his coaches, hoping that the Bears will have to split practice time preparing for two very different styles. But Lovie and his minions aren't falling for that: the team is prepping for Wallace with his greater mobility, which changes the pass rush more than anything else. And the strongest part of the Bears D this year has been the pass rush.

Meanwhile, the key soap opera subplot is Seattle wideout T. J. Houshmandzedah wanting to show the Bears they were fools for passing on him when he was a free agent:

'Look, I'm going to be realistic with you guys,'' Houshmandzadeh said. ''I feel like I'm going to get open every play, every time. But those guys get paid now, you know Charles Tillman gets paid well, [Nathan] Vasher gets paid well, Bowman gets paid well, Danieal Manning gets paid well. I feel like I'm going to win regardless, but I just have to be realistic with it. I'm going to win 95 percent of the time, and they can get the other five.''

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Not only is this player the winner of the NFL's Easy First Name Paired with Impossible Last Name contest, he's sullying the purity of sport by reducing his opponents' to their salary levels. It's not all about money! It's also about violence, and Housh has given the Bears a lot of locker-room bulletin board material. I predict he gets his bell so thoroughly rung at some point in the first quarter that he'll wish he'd gone to the Canadian League, while on the Bears side of the ball, 5th round pick Johnny "Opportunity" Knox continues to emerge as Jay Cutler's go-to guy.

Tomorrow: predicted final score.

Comments (11) RSS

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I hope some day he decides to run with the full Touraj Houshmandzadeh, Jr.

Posted by gloomy gus on September 24, 2009 at 1:38 PM

Oh, who cares? Hasselbeck is out. The O Line, Linebackers, and Secondary are all decimated by injury.

The pressure is all on Chicago. If the Bears win, who cares? ... it's an early regular season game that the Seahawks are expected to lose.

Cutler is a head case, and the Bears have rushed for what, 100 yards in 2 games? Don't clear your calendar for the playoffs just yet. The Seahawks have a better chance of making the post-season than the Bears, even if they lose on Sunday.

Posted by Mahtli69 on September 24, 2009 at 1:48 PM

Betting lines don't really have anything to do with who is favored. The bookies are just trying to make sure that they get equal action on both sides. Teams with fan bases that tend to gamble on the frequently force higher lines when they play teams that aren't bet on as frequently. That's why you can actually make a living betting on sports.

Posted by arbeck