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Thursday, September 17, 2009

Snoutbreak School's Out for Egypt

Posted by Brendan Kiley on Thu, Sep 17, 2009 at 10:46 AM

The Egyptian government has ordered all schools and universities to close until October in an attempt to slow the spread of swine flu...

Restrictions have already been imposed on those wanting to attend the annual Hajj pilgrimage in November. Only those between the ages of 25 and 65 will be granted the necessary visas.

Egyptian Health Minister Hatem al-Gabaly refused to rule out an all-out ban on Hajj travel if the outlook becomes worse.

Egypt has only had two deaths from swine flu. The U.S. has 593. (Brazil's leading, with 899.) But Dr. Marc Lipsitch (of Harvard University!) says it's no big deal.

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The total number of deaths in a country is meaningless. What matters is deaths per infection -- how lethal it is -- and deaths per population -- how widespread it is. What's alarming about swine flu is how widely those numbers are varying. I believe Australia is still #1 on both lists, and Brazil is a bit terrifying because they have few cases but many, many deaths (sort of like Mexico earlier this year). Argentina and Chile are also in trouble, if I'm remembering my map correctly. The US is not presently at risk, but that could change. But why do people in the US not die from it, while Brazilians and Mexicans do?

Posted by Fnarf

on September 17, 2009 at 11:03 AM

This is the same Egypt that slaughtered vast numbers of pigs during the initial outbreak, allegedly to stem the spread of the H1N1 virus. Farmers rioted and fought with police in order to protect their livestock.

It's easy to attribute this sort of thing to overreaction at the governmental level, but it's just as easy (and more entertaining) to try to fit a conspiracy theory around it all.

Posted by Ackham on September 17, 2009 at 11:20 AM