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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Poll Shows Mallahan in the Lead

Posted by on Wed, Sep 16, 2009 at 12:55 PM

Survey USA has released a poll of likely general-election voters that finds mayoral candidate Joe Mallahan leads Mike McGinn by a five-point margin. Mallahan has 41 percent of the vote, McGinn 36 percent, and 23 percent remain undecided. In a addition to Mallahan being the conservative darling, pollsters note a few interesting points about who likes whom:

• Mallahan, who finished a fractional point behind McGinn in the 8-candidate August 18 primary, runs strongly among voters age 50+, among Asian American voters, among Republicans, and among both conservatives and moderates.

• McGinn is strongest among the youngest voters and among liberals.

• Mallahan leads by 8 points among women, and by 3 points among men.

• Among those with household incomes greater than $50K, Mallahan leads by 9 points.

• Among those with incomes below $50K, McGinn and Mallahan are effectively even.

• Among college graduates, Mallahan leads by 8 points.

This poll was sponsored by KING-TV, which has sponsored most of the polls in the election, and should deserves a round of civic applause. That said, previous polls sponsored by KING and conducted by Survey USA, which uses telephone robots to record voter preferences, have shown McGinn polling lower than his final numbers. Whereas a poll conducted two weeks before the election showed McGinn by seven points behind Mayor Greg Nickel, King County election results showed McGinn two points ahead.


Comments (21) RSS

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Why does sponsoring a poll deserve civic applause? Polls have done more to denigrate the electoral process than to help it. Besides, with so many people relying solely on cell phones these days, the land-line-based polls are less and less accurate.

Oh, and the Mayor's name is Nickels, with an S.
Posted by More Weak Political Reporting on September 16, 2009 at 1:05 PM · Report this
Max Solomon 2
can someone who supports Mallahan please explain why? otherwise i'll just assume that you're all just voting for the guy with the most campaign signs.
Posted by Max Solomon on September 16, 2009 at 1:55 PM · Report this
"Among those with incomes below $50K, McGinn and Mallahan are effectively even."

Fucking baristas.....
Posted by Billy Boy on September 16, 2009 at 2:02 PM · Report this
"otherwise i'll just assume that you're all just voting for the guy with the most campaign signs"

or maybe we're better educated:

"Among college graduates, Mallahan leads by 8 points."
Posted by Billy Boy on September 16, 2009 at 2:04 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 5
My son and his gf, both of whom are voting for McGinn, never answer phone surveys or polls on their cell phones.

I'm thinking this is yet another case of land line rage, where the old white folks with land lines get to respond to the pollsters, whereas the young folks just fill out their ballots and mail em in anyway, while ignoring the pollsters.
Posted by Will in Seattle on September 16, 2009 at 2:10 PM · Report this
@5: Historically the "young folks" vote in very low numbers in local elections, whether or not they have land lines.

Oh, and nice snark about the "old white folks." You're just about there yourself.
Posted by bigyaz on September 16, 2009 at 2:22 PM · Report this
Speaking with several friends this week, I discovered that they, like I, were leaning towards Mallahan. They are all liberals. The one and only reason: McGinn's asinine insistence on reopening the viaduct debate.

Look, I would have preferred a different outcome, but it's done now and let's move on to better things. I have desire to relive the Monorail debate.
Posted by F on September 16, 2009 at 2:23 PM · Report this
That should be "no desire to relive".
Posted by F on September 16, 2009 at 2:25 PM · Report this
ralph 9
This poll just shows how out of touch McGinn is with Seattle voters. Mallahan is weak, but still ahead. Heck, the more I hear of McGinn's ideas, the more I'm inclined to vote for Mallahan.
Posted by ralph on September 16, 2009 at 2:26 PM · Report this
That's exactly why I'm voting for Mallahan. Just build something before the viaduct collapses in an earthquake.
Posted by zzyzx on September 16, 2009 at 2:51 PM · Report this
Let's not forget that he wants to fight the governor and legislature on the viaduct, but then potentially go back to the same people and ask them to pass a bill allowing him to take over the schools. That'll go over well.

McGinn's been a somewhat successful gadfly, but I have severe reservations about his ability to work well within the system. People may scream about not wanting another insider to be mayor (not that Mallahan really qualifies as such, since those same people then also attack his lack of political experience), but getting things done does require someone to be somewhat versed on bureacracy & getting deals done.
Posted by serotonein on September 16, 2009 at 3:08 PM · Report this
DavidG 12
@10 - why build anything? the fiasco with the monorail was because elected officials were repeatedly failing to enact the will of the voters, after several public votes. same thing with the viaduct: the voters have already rejected the tunnel, yet public officials went against the clear expression of the public to ram through a tunnel anyway. and still, I don't understand why we can't just close off the viaduct today and re-route all that cargo traffic onto I-5 and build more public transit for commuters. that's a workable solution, not ideal, but the tunnel was going to take 10+ years to complete already.
Posted by DavidG on September 16, 2009 at 3:14 PM · Report this
michael strangeways 13
Both are choices for mayor are lame...I'd vote for Sam Adams over Mike McRabble Rouser or Joe Rotary Club Mallahan...
Posted by michael strangeways on September 16, 2009 at 3:14 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 14
Um, news flash, Sam Adams is dead - been a long time since the Revolution ...

Me, I'm looking forward to the expansion of transit to Ballard and West Seattle under Mayor McGinn. About time!
Posted by Will in Seattle on September 16, 2009 at 3:37 PM · Report this
burgin22 15
they're both awful
Posted by burgin22 on September 16, 2009 at 4:01 PM · Report this
I think we all pretty much agree that they're both bad. Mayor McCheese seems to be the greater of two evils though.

As for 12, the reason to build something is to prevent even more companies from moving to the burbs where there's even less mass transit than downtown. All of those people who point to SF as an example of a city that removed a freeway, but few bother to mention that most of the businesses are located outside of the city which is largely a residential and tourist area these days.
Posted by zzyzx on September 16, 2009 at 4:21 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 17
@6 - historically, black people don't become President of the US, either.

Welcome to the 21st Century!
Posted by Will in Seattle on September 16, 2009 at 4:26 PM · Report this
Max Solomon 18
@4: that's not an answer.

@11: being a VP at a business is NOT the same as "getting things done" and "being versed in (govt) bureaucracy".
Posted by Max Solomon on September 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM · Report this
@18, thank you for proving my point by advocating one of the main two, and polar opposite, lines against Mallahan.

I never said Mallahan was versed in "(govt) bureaucracy" (don't use quotes to quote me but insert your own words in; or at least use brackets to denote where you're poorly putting words in my mouth). That *would* be stupid to say. My point is that McGinn has only shown an ability to fight the system, any system (gov't or private company), rather than work from within. He's already stated that he wants to be elected to start a big fight against the state legislature and governor. I'm not sure why anyone wants that from a mayor.
Posted by serotonein on September 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM · Report this
@19: That is the key question with McGinn. He's a smart, principled man who would make a good Councilmember, but is a questionable candidate for mayor. He has big ideas like reopening the viaduct debate and having the city take over the schools, both of which are probably not good ideas and both of which would require the approval of the state Legislature, which a somewhat arrogant novice like McGinn is unlikely to get. His in-city light rail extension announcement today is more of the same: the campaign guy in me likes the bold statement, but the realist in me really doubts that he can pull it off. Mallahan would be kind of a placeholder, but he could grow in office. That's the dilemma that Seattle voters are facing.
Posted by MVH on September 16, 2009 at 5:00 PM · Report this
absolutely agreed. I have concerns about Mallahan, but know that McGinn is the wrong choice for exactly the reasons you list. I fully understand that there are many who feel the opposite, but it's a worthy debate.
Posted by serotonein on September 16, 2009 at 7:03 PM · Report this

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