Slog
News & ArtsFriday, September 4, 2009
Chow The Coming Cupcake Crash
Posted by Dan Savage on Fri, Sep 4, 2009 at 7:25 AM
In America, bubbles form because any good business idea gets funded a dozen times over. That's the American way. Cupcakes are now showing every sign of going through the bubble cycle. The first-movers get buzz and revenues, gain critical mass, and start to expand rapidly. This inspires less-well-capitalized second- and third-movers, who believe there's room enough for them, and encourages established firms in a related industry to jump in. In New York, the Crumbs is joined by a cupcake truck, Sweet Revenge, Babycakes, and Sugar Sweet Sunshine.... Operating in what is essentially a commodity market, newcomers try to distinguish themselves by offering twists on the familiar formula. Hello Cupcake, conveniently located near Slate's D.C. office, specializes in organic, seasonal, and local ingredients. Babycakes offers vegan cupcakes. Coming soon to a precious storefront in a gentrifying neighborhood of Brooklyn: sustainable cupcakes made of flour ground from organic wheat raised in Prospect Park, served in wrappers recycled from old copies of the New York Review of Books.I'm suspicious of the durability of the cupcake boomlet on economic grounds, too. One colleague says the cupcakes are "sort of the baked equivalent of Bush's tax cuts." Why? "Their economic rationale withstands any and all conditions. When the economy is going well, people can afford little extras like cupcakes. When the economy isn't going well, people can afford only cupcakes."
2
@1 - If I had to place bets, I'd put money on sugar and fat being the two most recession proof commodities in America.
3
Sweet Revenge is really great. 67 Carmine-- take the 1 to Houston and walk uptown for two blocks on Varick/7th, turn right.
6
@5 - Poorly run companies will always do bad, which was Krispy Kreme's problem. Once they get their head on straight, look what happens: http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRele…
7
I thought small treats sold very well in a recession as luxuries became unaffordable for the previously well-off. Wouldn't cupcakes fall into that category?
8
Well. At least you can't hoard cupcakes like beaniebabies and Pokèmoncards.
(Of course, you can, but it makes even less sense.)
(Of course, you can, but it makes even less sense.)
10
Here's what I don't get about the crapcake/dognuts/twee guilty pleasures hawked by rude, judgmental, vegan ex-bike messengers craze. Why can't there just be BAKERIES that sell all of these in 1 location? Along with fresh croissants, bagels that resemble something Jews would deem schmear-worthy, and dare I say it............ scones? (Please, no one open up a scone emporium)
I might just be a nitwit with an Evergreen degree tucked in her pocket, but methinks this is something for all these My Little Pony theme businesses to think about.
I might just be a nitwit with an Evergreen degree tucked in her pocket, but methinks this is something for all these My Little Pony theme businesses to think about.
12
@10:
There is. Checked out the bakery section at any large chain supermarket lately?
(Well, except for the bagels - nobody around these parts makes a good, old-fashioned, boiled-then-baked bagel, SFAIA.)
And really, as a small-scale enterprise cupcakes aren't a bad idea per se: they're relatively simple to make in quantity, portable, cusomizeable, individual serving-portioned, and probably have a much better sell-through rate than sheet cakes, and are relatively inexpensive (yeah $3 per sounds hefty, but most people walking in are only going to buy just one unless it's for a party or something, which is still cheaper than a pint of premium ice cream); in short, they're an affordable "luxury" that most people don't mind splurging on once in a while.
And while it may seem like there's a glut of cupcake purveyors locally, for the moment at least they seem to be sufficiently separated geographically to not create too much competitive impact between individual stores.
It's only when some genius with access to VC decides to open up a chain of 15 or 20 of them in town that that paradigm will start to change.
There is. Checked out the bakery section at any large chain supermarket lately?
(Well, except for the bagels - nobody around these parts makes a good, old-fashioned, boiled-then-baked bagel, SFAIA.)
And really, as a small-scale enterprise cupcakes aren't a bad idea per se: they're relatively simple to make in quantity, portable, cusomizeable, individual serving-portioned, and probably have a much better sell-through rate than sheet cakes, and are relatively inexpensive (yeah $3 per sounds hefty, but most people walking in are only going to buy just one unless it's for a party or something, which is still cheaper than a pint of premium ice cream); in short, they're an affordable "luxury" that most people don't mind splurging on once in a while.
And while it may seem like there's a glut of cupcake purveyors locally, for the moment at least they seem to be sufficiently separated geographically to not create too much competitive impact between individual stores.
It's only when some genius with access to VC decides to open up a chain of 15 or 20 of them in town that that paradigm will start to change.
14
I think the cupcake craze will continue unabated as well, particularly as neighborhood niches continue to be filled. There's a new cupcake shop opening next to El Diablo on Queen Anne that I have no doubt will make a killing.
15
I really, really wanted to dislike Cupcake Royale. I thought the cupcake idea was ridiculous. But the cupcakes are delicious and that place is really, genuinely cute. And now I can't stay away.
17
You know, I defend these cupcake shops and all that, but I've only had one cupcake in the past year. I don't think I have a horse in this race.
It's like saying, "oh, I love the idea of vegan thai food, there should be vegan thai places all over. I won't go, but there should be vegan thai places."
It's like saying, "oh, I love the idea of vegan thai food, there should be vegan thai places all over. I won't go, but there should be vegan thai places."
18
Baconcat @17, as long as you mention vegan Thai places...
It never would have occurred to me, "This town needs a vegan Thai place." But now that there is one, I go there quite often. I'm talking Jhanjay in Wallingford.
Apologies for omitting any other vegan Thai places in Seattle.
It never would have occurred to me, "This town needs a vegan Thai place." But now that there is one, I go there quite often. I'm talking Jhanjay in Wallingford.
Apologies for omitting any other vegan Thai places in Seattle.
19
Go to the Sugar Shack in Maple Leaf/Lake City. It's great, best scones I've ever eaten (and they have pies, cookies, and other things like that, too). It's a small, female-owned business, too.
21
I'm an inveterate meat-eater, but I love Jhanjay. Proof to me that if you just PAY ATTENTION vegan food can be good too.
22
@12,
The baked goods at a supermarket? Are you kidding?
There are some good all-encompassing bakeries in the city, but many neighborhoods lack even one.
The baked goods at a supermarket? Are you kidding?
There are some good all-encompassing bakeries in the city, but many neighborhoods lack even one.
24
oddfellows has the best cupcakes. small batches, not a cupcake factory.
i'm interested to see what will happen with the seattle ice cream bubble come november.
i'm interested to see what will happen with the seattle ice cream bubble come november.
25
I HATE Sprinkles with a passion. The concept is stupid, the swarm of people blocking the sidewalk to get a cupcake is stupid, the actual cupcakes at Sprinkles taste terrible, etc. I hope this "trend" ends.
Of course, LA has already started on the next trend -- The "gourmet vendor truck" trend. Just wait, it'll hit Seattle soon enough. You'll have some friend begging you to go visit "the best sushi truck ever!" and you'll want to stab them in the face with a chopstick.
I agree with 10, there does not need to be these overly elaborate slants on one particular aspect of a food business. Just make good food.
Unfortunately, I would be outvoted by all the people who just want "new" and "different" things and convince themselves they have found the "best" of the trend.
Of course, LA has already started on the next trend -- The "gourmet vendor truck" trend. Just wait, it'll hit Seattle soon enough. You'll have some friend begging you to go visit "the best sushi truck ever!" and you'll want to stab them in the face with a chopstick.
I agree with 10, there does not need to be these overly elaborate slants on one particular aspect of a food business. Just make good food.
Unfortunately, I would be outvoted by all the people who just want "new" and "different" things and convince themselves they have found the "best" of the trend.
26
jsteel2005: The Seattle gourmet vendor truck trend started with Skillet in January of 2008 and things are still ramping up: http://www.seattledining.com/Current/Gou…
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Capital is flowing into the opening of [RESTAURANT TYPE] because, right now, (hipsters with disposable income) are willing to pay a premium for [FOOD] that is inexpensive to (m)ake.
28
you guy are just a bunch of sprinkle haters - what did those poor little rainbow colored bits of love do to you?
29
wow, did you crib enough of this article? maybe you should have cribbed another paragraph or two though. because perhaps not enough of the original article written by someone at Slate was cribbed here.
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