Slog
News & ArtsThursday, August 20, 2009
Homo R-71 Errors Climbing (Again)
Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Aug 20, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Predicting if anti-gay Referendum 71 will qualify for the ballot has been a roller coaster. First it looked like the petition could get on the ballot, but then it looked almost certain that it would fail. Then the secretary of state's office changed the way it reported valid signatures—and R-71 again looked like it would go before voters. So I won't dare try to predict what these numbers mean, but here they are:
Of the 88,191 signatures counted as of 5:00 p.m. today, 11.97 percent are invalid. To qualify for the November ballot, the petition can only sustain an error rate of 12.43 percent. (More data here.)
Last week the error rate was around 10.5 percent and, as of yesterday, it was up to 11.67 percent. In other words, the error rate is now steadily climbing, apparently due to a growing number of duplicate signatures. A couple weeks ago secretary of state's office spokesman David Ammons said the rate of duplicate signatures that are disqualified will probably increase as counting continues. "We have watched it in previous years, and it always rises," he said.
Election workers have about 50,000 more signatures to check out of nearly 138,000 submitted.
UPDATE: The trend may reverse again (see, isn't this fun?). The secretary of state's office reports:
Because checkers have been working off of the same version of the database that was used to check Initiative 1033 earlier this summer, new voters who registered in July didn’t show up. As the Elections Division begins a “recent registration check,” about 12 percent of those originally not found are being picked up via the current database that master checkers can access.Nick Handy, state elections director, called it “another dynamic in the mix” as the R-71 enters its final phase. The R-71 error rate has been slowly rising as more and more duplicate signatures are spotted, and that trend will be offset by potentially hundreds of previously rejected new voters being added to the accepted stack, he said.
2
The SOS also announced today that the number of rejects is being scrutinized against new registered voters who entered the system after June. They estimate 12% of the rejects to move over to the accepted pile. It is not clear on the SOS's website whether the 11.97 percent number takes into account the new twist on the "roller coaster ride".
3
12% of rejected sigs are getting flipped, apparently. So the error rate will go down. This is because they used an old database that missed voter registrations from July. Error rate should be about 10.7 with that.
BUT! A spot analysis showed that _at least_ 6% and upwards of 12% of accepted signatures were accepted in error. The speed at which they checked the signatures pushed the error rate down a bit. Since they selected specific signatures to be double-checked, David Ammons stated that it's probably statistically improbable that the error would carry over, BUT!, the percentage of those shifted from rejected to accepted mirrors pretty precisely what was projected in that spot check, so it's alright to assume 6%, since the low-end is pretty low.
Do the math on that one:
10554 * 0.12 = 1,266
77,637 + 1,266 = 78,903
10554 - 1266 = 9,288
Error rate of 10.53%
Then working from that, we go with:
78,903 * 0.06 = 4,734
9,288 + 4,734 = 14,022
78,903 - 4,734 = 74,169
Error rate of 15.89%
But let's stop having to do this math and get one of our fierce advocates in this state to put out a marriage equality initiative, okay? Our donations keep them from the workaday, so let's put them to work next year.
BUT! A spot analysis showed that _at least_ 6% and upwards of 12% of accepted signatures were accepted in error. The speed at which they checked the signatures pushed the error rate down a bit. Since they selected specific signatures to be double-checked, David Ammons stated that it's probably statistically improbable that the error would carry over, BUT!, the percentage of those shifted from rejected to accepted mirrors pretty precisely what was projected in that spot check, so it's alright to assume 6%, since the low-end is pretty low.
Do the math on that one:
10554 * 0.12 = 1,266
77,637 + 1,266 = 78,903
10554 - 1266 = 9,288
Error rate of 10.53%
Then working from that, we go with:
78,903 * 0.06 = 4,734
9,288 + 4,734 = 14,022
78,903 - 4,734 = 74,169
Error rate of 15.89%
But let's stop having to do this math and get one of our fierce advocates in this state to put out a marriage equality initiative, okay? Our donations keep them from the workaday, so let's put them to work next year.
4
@2, no those "reverted to accepted" signatures were not reflected in today's numbers, as per a blog comment by David Ammons. i assume they'll review all the former rejects before announcing the grant total reassignment.
Washington Families Standing Together (WAFST.org) is has phone bank shifts available virtually every waking hour starting now. If you've got an hour or two, sign up to help inform voters that they must vote APPROVED in November to keep the domestic partnership law.
If the thought of phone banking nauseates you, check out WAFST.org for tons of other ways you can help. :)
Washington Families Standing Together (WAFST.org) is has phone bank shifts available virtually every waking hour starting now. If you've got an hour or two, sign up to help inform voters that they must vote APPROVED in November to keep the domestic partnership law.
If the thought of phone banking nauseates you, check out WAFST.org for tons of other ways you can help. :)
5
The increasing error rate made me hopeful; the news that they hadn't been checking the latest registration rolls sank my spirits. But -- special reviews aside -- if the rate continued as it has this week, it would have ended up with over 14% error rate and the finds they're making in the updated rolls wouldn't be enough to put them on the ballot. Just barely. In other words, it's way too close to call and we have to assume we're working to APPROVE R71 in November.
As for putting our own initiative on the ballot, uh uh. Hands Off did that in the 90's, impatient with getting the civil rights bill passed in the leg. Despite polling that showed we ought to win -- and despite every resource in the community going into the fight that year -- we lost horribly. And the bigots used those numbers to keep the civil rights bill at bay nearly another decade.
We argue, correctly, that rights shouldn't be put up to a vote. That means they shouldn't put our rights up for a vote, and neither should we.
At any rate, when the legislature DOES pass a marriage bill, you can bet we'll all get to vote in a referendum then.
As for putting our own initiative on the ballot, uh uh. Hands Off did that in the 90's, impatient with getting the civil rights bill passed in the leg. Despite polling that showed we ought to win -- and despite every resource in the community going into the fight that year -- we lost horribly. And the bigots used those numbers to keep the civil rights bill at bay nearly another decade.
We argue, correctly, that rights shouldn't be put up to a vote. That means they shouldn't put our rights up for a vote, and neither should we.
At any rate, when the legislature DOES pass a marriage bill, you can bet we'll all get to vote in a referendum then.
6
If only 5000 people certified to the WA State Attorney General that their names were gathered illegally and that the signature their is not theirs ... I wonder what would happen?
Cause I will post the list of signatures, printed name, and addresses next to the Fremont Bridge - it's a Constitutional right.
Cause I will post the list of signatures, printed name, and addresses next to the Fremont Bridge - it's a Constitutional right.
7
The growth in error rate seen over the past two days appears out of sync with the prior days -- even when account for the growth in duplicates, which are increasing along a predictable (but complicated) pattern.
If you were to project an outcome based on results through Tuesday, the measure seem to have enogh sigs by a margin of about 2000.
But with results through today it appears as though the measure won't have the signatures, falling short by about 300.
Botom line: who knows. As Lurleen says, stop watching the numbers and let's get to work.
If you were to project an outcome based on results through Tuesday, the measure seem to have enogh sigs by a margin of about 2000.
But with results through today it appears as though the measure won't have the signatures, falling short by about 300.
Botom line: who knows. As Lurleen says, stop watching the numbers and let's get to work.
8
With the new processing of the later registration data base and the checks in progress for sig matches and no matches being re worked .... well folks the other side can pick up 1,000 more signatures in late processing, added back.... which will seal their deal.
The battle is on, we are waiting for the bad news like stupid sheeple - yes - go to work.
1. Send ck, small is OK at this moment .... much more in three weeks.
2. make sure everyone, work, friends, relatives, apt. building, you know is registered properly, can be done ONLINE
3. call to help do anything they ask
4 plan a funraiser via your group, neighborhood, friends house party, just do it - pump the money, media is expensive, a must in modern campaigns
Ace - just sent 50.00 today
The battle is on, we are waiting for the bad news like stupid sheeple - yes - go to work.
1. Send ck, small is OK at this moment .... much more in three weeks.
2. make sure everyone, work, friends, relatives, apt. building, you know is registered properly, can be done ONLINE
3. call to help do anything they ask
4 plan a funraiser via your group, neighborhood, friends house party, just do it - pump the money, media is expensive, a must in modern campaigns
Ace - just sent 50.00 today
9
#3 remember also that we have a Denial Of Marriage Act (DOMA) here in Washington, that our Supreme Court has upheld. That MUST be overturned before we will see any real movement in marriage equality.
Ace is correct we must donate our time and money. If everyone reading the Slog today were to give $71 to Washington Families Standing Together at https://co.clickandpledge.com/sp/d1/defa… they would have nearly $142 more towards retaining the domestic partnership bill.
Ace is correct we must donate our time and money. If everyone reading the Slog today were to give $71 to Washington Families Standing Together at https://co.clickandpledge.com/sp/d1/defa… they would have nearly $142 more towards retaining the domestic partnership bill.
10
Oh, quit playing stupid Holden. You know that your "buddies" over there have this all set up by now. They're just giving the impression of being the underdog while waiting to throw out little by little, at the right time the correct amount of signatures that they have calculated they need in order to sabotage this. You are being very transparent (in your true intentions) in all of this.
12
@9: It is not a constitutional amendment, it's a legislative act that can be overturned by initiative or the legislature revisiting it. The court simply said that in application based on precedent (Baker v. Nelson, primarily), it was constitutional in that it was within the right of the legislature to decide what constitutes a marriage. Instead of challenging it, we presented I-957.
And nobody has decided to use the senate bill we're voting on as a basis for a case. It follows every rational test set forth by the court in Andersen v. King County, showing that the state can decide what it can extend and to whom, which is more than enough to mollify the court's constitutional concern and making it possible to bypass whatever outcome we get out of R-71 since it states unequivocally that the rights of marriage are no longer inextricably linked to procreation.
There are many ways to go about it. Saying "DOMA" is not an excuse.
And nobody has decided to use the senate bill we're voting on as a basis for a case. It follows every rational test set forth by the court in Andersen v. King County, showing that the state can decide what it can extend and to whom, which is more than enough to mollify the court's constitutional concern and making it possible to bypass whatever outcome we get out of R-71 since it states unequivocally that the rights of marriage are no longer inextricably linked to procreation.
There are many ways to go about it. Saying "DOMA" is not an excuse.
14
10, You are comedy gold. Again I'll ask, Loveschild did you graduate from high school? Though, at this point, with you repeatedly and desperately avoiding answering all this time, I guess it's safe to say that you are a drop out. How long have you been sober?
15
Loveschild attended the Martha Washington Schools for Girls back in the late '60's. (This was after her stint in Tijuana). Since she was legal - she was 28, but passed for 18 in the right lighting - she used to buy beer and cigarettes for the other girls. That would have made her quite popular, except she usually wanted a little something in return, if you know what I mean.
She befriended a few of the Matrons, and they'd sit up late, drinking beer, smoking Virginia Slims and complaining about men. Every morning, they'd sober her up with a cold shower and send her off to class, which she usually slept through.
I honestly don't know how she got through it, but dear old Martha Washington finally gave her a degree (after five years or so). I think it was because it was closing, and they didn't want to subject the kids at Rainier Beach High to her.
After school was done, she went back to her old ways. She used to hang out at Spin's Friendly Tavern and show her boobs to guys in exchange for drinks.
Thank God she finally got herself pulled together.
She befriended a few of the Matrons, and they'd sit up late, drinking beer, smoking Virginia Slims and complaining about men. Every morning, they'd sober her up with a cold shower and send her off to class, which she usually slept through.
I honestly don't know how she got through it, but dear old Martha Washington finally gave her a degree (after five years or so). I think it was because it was closing, and they didn't want to subject the kids at Rainier Beach High to her.
After school was done, she went back to her old ways. She used to hang out at Spin's Friendly Tavern and show her boobs to guys in exchange for drinks.
Thank God she finally got herself pulled together.
16
I have a silver lining. Perhaps every christofascist hater in the state signed the ballot in the church parking lot -- or perhaps on the altar in blood, I don't know. Anyway, I choose to believe that is the entirety of their "no" votes on R-71. It will lose in a landslide of enlightened people.
PS -- Kim and other Christians who live Christ's word and not the bigotry of men, you are not included in the above "christofascists". There is a difference. Plus, Kim's in OR :)
PS -- Kim and other Christians who live Christ's word and not the bigotry of men, you are not included in the above "christofascists". There is a difference. Plus, Kim's in OR :)
17
Oh Loveschild. When you meet Jesus in heaven, will you be surprised when he punches you in the neck?
18
@16: R-71 needs to pass, actually! Tell all your friends to vote APPROVE, since you're APPROVING the bill.
@17: Assuming she makes it there. I think her hate has rendered her flightless and she'll just sink.
@17: Assuming she makes it there. I think her hate has rendered her flightless and she'll just sink.
19
Oh, LovesChild, you truly are a piece of work! I shouldn't really be surprised, though. I mean, it's pretty obvious that you and reality and humanity just aren't on speaking terms. Here you are, with the votes starting to go against you, believing in a conspiracy rather than the pretty obvious truth that your kind of hate and bigotry just doesn't fly anymore. How do I know it's hate and bigotry? Again, it’s pretty obvious. This law is about Civil Unions, not marriage. In fact, it is everything but calling it marriage, which should make the ‘Marriage Defenders’ happy, because it let’s marriage be between a man and a woman while conferring all the benefits to those who wish to live together as a couple. But you can’t stand even that, so it’s not about the marriage thing, it’s about how much you can’t stand gay people, can’t see them as fellow human beings. You would deny them anything because you despise them so.
Your god must be so proud.
Your god must be so proud.
20
@10 - Buddies? Minions, yes. Corhorts, possibly. Even henchmen, confederates, and allies. But buddies? Not so much.
21
I did a simple linear least squares on the sec. of state's numbers from the 14th, assuming that the increase in error rate due to duplicates is linear with the number of signatures checked (along with some other minor assumptions). R^2 is shitty, due to huge fluctuations in per bound volume error rates, but the overall trend is clear even visually. Statistically speaking, the final volume of sigs should have an error rate of ~15.0%, from an initial volume ER of 9.80%. From the trending in the first 42% of sigs checked, I came up with a final total ER of 12.4% (+/- 0.7% given normal distribution) so 50/50 on whether it would get to ballot or not.
This recent news throws a wrench into that though. time to gear up for a fight.
This recent news throws a wrench into that though. time to gear up for a fight.
22
Anyone else find it odd that they keep framing the topic of error rate like "it happened in previous years, so it's probably going to happen again" instead of "it's a matter of common sense and simple fracking math that it's going to rise".
23
Election officials are RIGGING the election so this anti-gay referendum gets on the ballot. They have changed the process so much to help the anti-gay BIGOTS that it is criminal. Here is a review of how election officials have RIGGED the results to favor this anti-gay referendum.
* Election officials LIED to the media, told them the error rate needs to be lower than 14%. In reality it needs to be lower than 12.43%.
* The problem most recently is that there used to be 4 master fixers allowed on the floor at one time with 3 observers from each side to watch. Now, there are 6 fixers on the floor and spread apart (even though it was promised that no more than 4 would be allowed on the floor at one time) with only 3 observers, making it impossible for the observers to thoroughly watch each of the fixers.
* On day five this referendum was NOT going to make it on the ballot then suddenly master fixers came in and “readjusted” the numbers by more than 19% thereby putting this referendum back in play. Gay people raised concerns about the process and guess what the election officials did? Looked at the same rejected signatures again. And you know what the rejected signature percent went down another 10%. Here we have the same rejected signatures looked at FOUR times with FOUR massively different numbers
* The rejected signatures of the first 33,000+ are checked at least FOUR times, twice by junior checkers and twice by master checkers. While the accepted signatures, which accounted for 89% of the signatures, are only counted ONCE.
* Husband and wife fixers, Roger and Valerie gave names to outside people to confirm they signed the petition which is ILLEGAL.
* Rejected signatures are NOW going to get ANOTHER look because according to the secretary of state spokesperson voter registration wasn’t “updated.” Election officials say that 12% of those already rejected will put in the accepted pile. They will be looking at people who registered to vote after the petition drive was to end.
* David Ammons told people concerned with the lopsided checking of signatures basically gay people are not worth looking at the accepted signatures again, that election officials would only take a look at the already rejected ones.
More...
* Election officials LIED to the media, told them the error rate needs to be lower than 14%. In reality it needs to be lower than 12.43%.
* The problem most recently is that there used to be 4 master fixers allowed on the floor at one time with 3 observers from each side to watch. Now, there are 6 fixers on the floor and spread apart (even though it was promised that no more than 4 would be allowed on the floor at one time) with only 3 observers, making it impossible for the observers to thoroughly watch each of the fixers.
* On day five this referendum was NOT going to make it on the ballot then suddenly master fixers came in and “readjusted” the numbers by more than 19% thereby putting this referendum back in play. Gay people raised concerns about the process and guess what the election officials did? Looked at the same rejected signatures again. And you know what the rejected signature percent went down another 10%. Here we have the same rejected signatures looked at FOUR times with FOUR massively different numbers
* The rejected signatures of the first 33,000+ are checked at least FOUR times, twice by junior checkers and twice by master checkers. While the accepted signatures, which accounted for 89% of the signatures, are only counted ONCE.
* Husband and wife fixers, Roger and Valerie gave names to outside people to confirm they signed the petition which is ILLEGAL.
* Rejected signatures are NOW going to get ANOTHER look because according to the secretary of state spokesperson voter registration wasn’t “updated.” Election officials say that 12% of those already rejected will put in the accepted pile. They will be looking at people who registered to vote after the petition drive was to end.
* David Ammons told people concerned with the lopsided checking of signatures basically gay people are not worth looking at the accepted signatures again, that election officials would only take a look at the already rejected ones.
24
Seattle OUTProtest has organized a grassroots coalition of lgbt people and organizations to organize a series of solidarity events to coincide with the National March for Equality this October.
Equality Across America: Seattle Solidarity March
www.seattleoutprotest.org
HIV/AIDS Vigil: Saturday, October 10
March & Rally: Sunday, October 11
Committee Meetings:
March/Rally Committee: Mondays @ 7 pm, Location: Kaladi Brothers (511 E Pike St)
Workshops Committee: Saturdays @ 5 pm, Location: Deluxe (Broadway & Roy)
Outreach Committee: Saturdays @ 2:30 pm, Location: TBD (near Hugo House)
Meet/Greet/Social Committee: Day? @ 6 pm, Location: Stumptown Coffee (616 E Pine)
HIV/AIDS Vigil Committee: Volunteers still need to coordinate!
Next General Meeting: Saturday, August 29 @ 2:30 pm, Location: Hugo House
For more information, please contact Whitney@seattleoutprotest.org .
Equality Across America
Equalityacrossamerica.org
Our One Single Demand:
Equal protection in all matters governed by civil law in all 50 states. We will accept no less and will work until it is achieved. Equality Across America exists to support grassroots organizing in all 435 Congressional Districts to achieve full equality.
Equal Protection encompasses many issues, including:
* Repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) so that every marriage in every state has the same federal rights.
* Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell so that LGBT persons may serve in the military openly and with the same rights as their straight counterparts.
* An end to workplace discrimination for everyone with an Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) that protects everyone.
* The right to adopt children and raise families like any other parents.
* Hate Crimes legislation that includes LGBT people and protects us like any other targeted group.
* Immigration reform that recognizes same-sex couples and ends the needless separation of families.
* A comprehensive anti-bullying policy in our schools via the Safe Schools Improvement Act.
Our philosophy:
As members of every race, class, faith, and community, we see the struggle for LGBT equality as part of a larger movement for peace and social justice.
Our strategy:
Equality Across America is a network of decentralized organizers in every one of the 435 Congressional districts. These organizers form Congressional District Action Teams (CDATs) that will do the work on the ground in their own communities to achieve full equality.
Each CDAT works not only toward national equality, but participates in their local and state struggles for equality in areas like marriage, adoption, and work-place discrimination. Equality Across America connects organizers from around the country so we can support one another in all of our work, focusing energy and resources in battlegrounds when needed.
What is the National Equality March?
The National Equality March is an important event to show support for full equality on the door step of those who can make that happen: the Congress of the United States. It will be held October 10-11, 2009 in Washington, DC and each Congressional District Action Team will mobilize its community to go to DC.
More...
Equality Across America: Seattle Solidarity March
www.seattleoutprotest.org
HIV/AIDS Vigil: Saturday, October 10
March & Rally: Sunday, October 11
Committee Meetings:
March/Rally Committee: Mondays @ 7 pm, Location: Kaladi Brothers (511 E Pike St)
Workshops Committee: Saturdays @ 5 pm, Location: Deluxe (Broadway & Roy)
Outreach Committee: Saturdays @ 2:30 pm, Location: TBD (near Hugo House)
Meet/Greet/Social Committee: Day? @ 6 pm, Location: Stumptown Coffee (616 E Pine)
HIV/AIDS Vigil Committee: Volunteers still need to coordinate!
Next General Meeting: Saturday, August 29 @ 2:30 pm, Location: Hugo House
For more information, please contact Whitney@seattleoutprotest.org .
Equality Across America
Equalityacrossamerica.org
Our One Single Demand:
Equal protection in all matters governed by civil law in all 50 states. We will accept no less and will work until it is achieved. Equality Across America exists to support grassroots organizing in all 435 Congressional Districts to achieve full equality.
Equal Protection encompasses many issues, including:
* Repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) so that every marriage in every state has the same federal rights.
* Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell so that LGBT persons may serve in the military openly and with the same rights as their straight counterparts.
* An end to workplace discrimination for everyone with an Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) that protects everyone.
* The right to adopt children and raise families like any other parents.
* Hate Crimes legislation that includes LGBT people and protects us like any other targeted group.
* Immigration reform that recognizes same-sex couples and ends the needless separation of families.
* A comprehensive anti-bullying policy in our schools via the Safe Schools Improvement Act.
Our philosophy:
As members of every race, class, faith, and community, we see the struggle for LGBT equality as part of a larger movement for peace and social justice.
Our strategy:
Equality Across America is a network of decentralized organizers in every one of the 435 Congressional districts. These organizers form Congressional District Action Teams (CDATs) that will do the work on the ground in their own communities to achieve full equality.
Each CDAT works not only toward national equality, but participates in their local and state struggles for equality in areas like marriage, adoption, and work-place discrimination. Equality Across America connects organizers from around the country so we can support one another in all of our work, focusing energy and resources in battlegrounds when needed.
What is the National Equality March?
The National Equality March is an important event to show support for full equality on the door step of those who can make that happen: the Congress of the United States. It will be held October 10-11, 2009 in Washington, DC and each Congressional District Action Team will mobilize its community to go to DC.
25
Yeah yeah yeah..... They're rigging this against the gays just like they rigged the governor's race against Dino.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And all the conspiracy theories in the world won't help you.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And all the conspiracy theories in the world won't help you.
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