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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Nickels May Be Finished

Posted by on Thu, Aug 20, 2009 at 4:30 PM

Joe Mallahan's lead is growing in the race for mayor and incumbent Greg Nickels is falling further behind in third place, new results from King County Elections show. Nickels will be holding a press conference tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. at City Hall to talk about "the state of election," says Nickels campaign spokesman Sandeep Kaushik.

Seattle Mayor:

Joe Mallahan: 28126 — 27.22%
Mike McGinn: 27586 — 26.69%
Greg Nickels: 26416 — 25.56%
James Donaldson: 8589 — 8.31%
Jan Drago: 7691 — 7.44%
Elizabeth Campbell: 2745 — 2.66%
Kwame Wyking Garrett: 1048 — 1.01%
Norman Zadok Sigler: 880 — 0.85%

It looks like Nickels is done and he knows it. But, perhaps not? Maybe it's not a concession speech, or maybe he's been reading Slog?

The spread between Mallahan and McGinn is fairly narrow (540 votes) but that's more than double the gap between them yesterday. At this rate, Mallahan looks like he can maintain his lead, and it would be extremely difficult for Nickels to reach second place and advance to the general election.

As of yesterday, election workers had tallied 81,725 ballots in the Seattle mayor's race. Today's numbers are based on 107,167 ballots. So that's 25,442 new ballots released in today's count.

King County Elections spokeswoman Kim van Ekstrom estimates they are 30,000 uncounted ballots at the elections headquarters (those are countywide, and she didn't know how many of those were from Seattle voters). She adds that elections officials have received roughly 4,000 ballots that were postmarked too late (after August 18).

King County Executive

Susan Hutchison: 91341 — 34.60%
Dow Constantine: 65885 — 24.96%
Fred Jarrett: 32818 — 12.43%
Larry Phillips: 31635 — 11.98%
Ross Hunter: 29293 — 11.10%
Alan Lobdell: 6495 — 2.46%
Goodspaceguy: 3102 —1.18%
Stan Lippmann: 3024 — 1.15%

Constantine continues to do well in later turn ins. Goodspaceguy has over 3,000 supporters (who are you magical people?). And who would have thought that Fred Jarrett would lead Phillips and Hunter? What a roast on toast.

City Council Position No. 4

Sally Bagshaw: 47125 — 51.69%
David Bloom: 16462 — 18.06%
Dorsol Plants: 11971 — 13.13%
Thomas Tobin: 8053 — 8.83%
Brian Carver: 7286 — 7.99%

City Council Position No. 6

Nick Licata: 51247 — 54.86%
Jessie Israel: 27922 — 29.89%
Marty Kaplan: 13925 — 14.91%

City Council Position No. 8

Mike O'Brien: 31118 — 34.22%
Robert Rosencrantz: 18860 — 20.74%
Jordan Royer: 14379 — 15.81%
Bobby Forch: 11021 — 12.12%
David Miller: 10936 — 12.03%
Rusty Williams: 4351 — 4.78%

City of Seattle Referendum No. 1 (bag fee)

Smart Folks: 47171 — 44.89%
Plastic Industry Suckers: 57913 — 55.11%

Seattle School District No. 1 Director District No. 5

Kay Smith-Blum: 4644 41.12%
Mary E. Bass: 4091 36.23%
Andre Helmstetter: 1324 — 11.72%
Joanna Cullen: 1164 — 10.31%

Seattle School District No. 1 Director District No. 7

Betty Patu 4338 46.63%
Wilson Chin 3831 41.18%
Charlie Mas 1077 11.58%

More results are here.

 

Comments (42) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment
Reality Check 1
If you think Mallahan has a lead now...

Just wait until it is a 2 person race! Mallahan will landslide McGinn in the general election, once people have a choice between a pro business Mayor with solid leadership experience and a plan to ease traffic congestion, vs a Sierra club leader who panders to a minority of the electorate..

We'll see how much honest reporting the Stranger staff do now that Mallahan is in the lead and is the candidate to catch....
Posted by Reality Check http://www.nraila.org on August 20, 2009 at 4:40 PM
2
Constantine-Hutchison gap keeps getting narrower, now less than 10 points, less than any of Dow's 3 Democratic opponents got.
Posted by lorax on August 20, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Renton Mike 3
In the County Executive race, Goodspaceguy still has his lead over Stan Lippmann in the battle to not be last.
Posted by Renton Mike on August 20, 2009 at 4:41 PM
4
Interestingly, McGinn, Mallahan and Nickels all increased their share of the vote totals from yesterday's drop. They are capturing more votes from the other candidates than in the previous counts...depending on how many votes remain to be counted this could get very nerve wracking.
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 4:43 PM
5
Also, Licata raised his share of the vote by more than 1% since yesterday. Israel is now below 30%.
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 4:46 PM
6
@1 Mallahan's whole campaign has been about getting rid of Nickels. Without Nickels, Mallahan has nothing to stand on. He has NO civic experience and no real understanding of the issues facing Seattle (in a forum, he couldn't name ONE community group in Seattle. Not one). I can't wait to see McGinn cream him in the debates.
Posted by You wish on August 20, 2009 at 4:48 PM
7
Looking forward to the Mallhan-McGinn race. It will the first real Mayoral debate since Charlie Chong.
Posted by Zander on August 20, 2009 at 4:49 PM
8
@1--once we get into a 2 person race, I think you'll be able to see that McGinn has a lot more to offer than you expect.

And I'm not sure that promising to plow streets constitutes a plan to ease traffic congestion.
Posted by Gidge on August 20, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Will in Seattle 9
Old people turned out like crazy.

That said, an 1100 vote gap between McGinn and Nickels mean Greg's definitely toast.

Anyone notice Dorsol Plants numbers went up?
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 4:54 PM
10
Okay. Nickels is toast.

On Wed. Seattle votes represented about 43% of the total votes counted. Today they were about 36%. If there are about 30,000 ballots left to count Nickels would have to surge to overcome either McGinn or Mallahan. Even if 43% of those are from Seattle (about 12,900) Nickels would have to capture the majority to overcome his deficit.

He's done.
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 4:55 PM
11
I'm still holding out hope for Kwame Wyking Garrett to win this one. I'd love to see a race between him and Norman Zadok Sigler
Posted by Michelob Light for the Winners! on August 20, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Will in Seattle 12
The main question is: who is volunteering at the 43rd Dems BBQ this Saturday at Gas Works Park - cause that has a straw poll ($10 buys you a plate of food and a vote, $5 for kids) - and I hear Joe Mallahan signed up to flip burgers ...

I expect lots of Republicans to show up, since Susan Hutchinson is eligible to be voted for.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 4:57 PM
13
Greggo has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning!

He's gone, he's gone. Oh happy day!
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 5:00 PM
Will in Seattle 14
and suck on your Prop 1 - Mexico City had the guts to Ban Plastic Bags - which everyone I know would have voted for ...
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 5:00 PM
Will in Seattle 15
news flash - Cantwell's going to be at the BBQ. I wonder how she and Sarah Palin ... oops, Susan Hutchinson ... will get along?
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 5:02 PM
Will in Seattle 16
(damn posted too fast before i finished reading) sorry, just a staffer, that was going to be so fun ...
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Bollo 17
Roast on toast? Tee hee!

I want to know who these 4000 people are who could not get their ballots post marked on time? They could have made the difference for many candidates.
Posted by Bollo on August 20, 2009 at 5:08 PM
pissy mcslogbot 18
if you add Stan Lippmann, Goodspaceguy and Susan Hutchison percentages together, you are at a voter whacko level of almost 40%.

though it should be noted, of those three candidates, Goodspaceguy and Lippman lead on sanity points.
Posted by pissy mcslogbot on August 20, 2009 at 5:12 PM
19
@14: Agreed. "Smart people" know a cruddy, poorly conceived, piggyback-on-other-cities-who-did-it-right referendum when they see one. Keep plastic bags or ban them. The people have spoken.
Posted by Echoes Myron on August 20, 2009 at 5:16 PM
20
Reality Check @1: Mallahan will landslide McGinn in the general election, once people have a choice between a pro business Mayor with solid leadership experience...

Hey, Mike Holmgren has solid leadership experience too, just like Joe Mallahan. Maybe he should run for public office too.

Uh, only one problem. That leadership experience has nothing to do with--and that supposed leader has never taken an interest in--this city and region's civic life. OK, that's not quite fair. Joe Mallahan certainly started taking an interest in Seattle politics the moment he declared his candidacy for mayor.

Um, on second thought, I'm not even sure of that. There's a vagueness and vapidness about Joe Mallahan's campaign, as if he's running for mayor of any random big city in America.

Whatever criticisms you have about Mike McGinn, he cares passionately about Seattle and always has. The same cannot be said for Joe Mallahan.
Posted by cressona on August 20, 2009 at 5:20 PM
21
Before the big snow storm I would have given Mayor Pickles a B grade.

After his assessment of a B grade for the city's response to the snowstorm, I would have to give him a Fuck You.
Posted by Jeffrey on August 20, 2009 at 5:24 PM
22
Meanwhile, just one more day of data, and I think we can declare R-71 dead.

The last two days of data have shown a very large spike in the number of rejected signatures -- and just because of duplication.

At the current rate, they will have fallen about 100 signatures short of qualifying for the ballot.

If they're processing the signatures in a semi-sequential fashion, I'd expect that the number of errors will shoot up even further.

Just one more day of data, and we can probably declare the signature drive DOA.
Posted by oneway on August 20, 2009 at 5:43 PM
23
@20 -- It certainly does feel as though Mallahan is having a mid-life crisis and after being passed over for a promotion, his executive leadership coach challenged him with the question, "What do you want to do when you grow up?"

Mallahan answered, "Running for mayor would validate my sense of self worth." And here we are.
Posted by oneway on August 20, 2009 at 5:46 PM
Reality Check 24
@20 possibly so Cressona, you bring up a valid point.

That being said, many folks are looking for a change... a change from the entrenched status quo of current politics. The very fact that Mallahan isn't a good ol' boy insider, might actually work out to his benefit.

Instead he has been spending his time fine tuning his managerial, project and organizational skills working at a major company in the county. It could be argued that to run a successful company like that doesn't leave alot of extra time to hobnob and moonlight with City/County politics.

I'm not blindly supporting Mallahan, and there are quite a few things I do like about McGinn, so don't get me wrong... I'm a huge fan of McGinn possibly bringing in a new Parks Supt, to replace the California transplant that was recently appointed.... as his replacement would be much more laid back and friendly to working with the pro-nekkid community in their efforts to get status and recognition for an official clothing optional designated beach (for example), and McGinn would likely be much more progressive in dealing with the Seattle nightlife community...

My ire was raised by the biased one sided so called "reporting" here solely for McGinn. There is MUCH more to a candidates policy platforms than just where they sit concerning the Viaduct (amongst others)
Posted by Reality Check http://www.nraila.org on August 20, 2009 at 5:46 PM
25
#10 - King County elections reports that 128K of ballots have been received from Seattle and they have counted as of today they have processed 107K so there are about 21K left.
Posted by abc on August 20, 2009 at 6:03 PM
DavidG 26
@24 - I like the fact that both candidates are relative outsiders to politics. What concerns me about Mallahan - beyond the viaduct, which I could get over - is the fact that he apparently hasn't voted at ALL until very recently. Doesn't seem really engaged in the normal, citizen-level activities of civic responsibilities. Also, I have a strong distaste for someone who is bankrolling his own campaign, burying his opponents in his own money. Smells of Berlusconi to me. If Mallahan has strong points to overcome these, I'd be glad to learn about them, but it looks to me like he comes from a place of wealth and privilege, and doesn't necessarily have the depth of local understanding and interest I'd like to see in a mayor.
Posted by DavidG http://portableshrines.com on August 20, 2009 at 6:31 PM
27
Indeed, it looks like Nickels won't get that late bump, barring a severe turn of events. Without a significant move ahead in the next count, he is done for sure.

20. Caring about the city and having some practical, applicable solutions to its problems are two different levels. We know McGinn cares: that's obvious. Does he actually fix anything, or does he kill a bunch of projects dead and watch a bunch of others sputter into money-wasting uselessness? We'll see if he can outduel Mallaspam, a tough task given the latter's uncanny ability to get his name out there to casual voters (through any means necessary) so efficiently.

Both remaining choices present as many inherent problems as they promise solutions.
Posted by Gomez http://misterstevengomez.com on August 20, 2009 at 6:37 PM
28
@25:

Okay, I've done some number crunching as best I can with what's available.

Currently Nickels needs to pick up 1170 votes to supplant McGinn at number two. Even assuming that there are 21,000 votes left to count and assuming that McGinn and Mallahan each only get 26% of those votes, then Nickels needs to get at least 31.58% of the remaining votes to make it to the fall ballot.

And although, Nickels' percent of the vote has edged upwards with each count (25.15, 25.19, 25.56) so have Mallahan's ( 25.87, 26.76, 27.22) and McGinn's have remained relatively steady (26.68, 26.48, 26.69).

Barring a major disruption of the Force, Nickels is done.
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 7:10 PM
Tingleyfeeln 29
I voted against the bag tax! Why? Mainly because the tax was going to the general fund, not to a specific department relevant to environmental matters. Had the tax been dedicated to waste management and environmental cleanup, my no would have been a yes. Also, I was opposed to the exemption for department stores.

It had nothing to do with a supply of free liners for my bathroom trash can.
Posted by Tingleyfeeln on August 20, 2009 at 7:13 PM
gloomy gus 30
Gomez, I think you're on to something. Fortunately for him, McGinn is the most appealing of the dopes who showed up to run this year. But unless he fills in the blanks about whether he's competent to shoulder the burden and wield the power he's asking us for, a lot of us who'll vote for him may be crossing our fingers as we do.
Posted by gloomy gus on August 20, 2009 at 7:25 PM
Will in Seattle 31
@29 - actually, I use those as my actual garbage bags - don't have that much trash cause I consume less (my son and I) and recycle almost everything (plus compost).

But yeah, we need action that causes real change in the plastic waste stream - and consumption too.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 20, 2009 at 7:26 PM
Rotten666 32
Smart Folks: 47171 — 44.89%
Plastic Industry Suckers: 57913 — 55.11%

sour grapes is a stinky cologne, Holden.

Posted by Rotten666 on August 20, 2009 at 8:03 PM
33
RealityCheck @24:
My ire was raised by the biased one sided so called "reporting" here solely for McGinn. There is MUCH more to a candidates policy platforms than just where they sit concerning the Viaduct (amongst others)

Actually, RealityCheck, I'm completely with you about there being so much more to a candidate than their viaduct stand. In fact, I'll be an unapologetic McGinn backer for the general even though I consider his no-tunnel stance to be pandering, counterproductive bullshit. And this opinion is coming from someone who thinks the tunnel is a spectacular waste of money.
Posted by cressona on August 20, 2009 at 8:17 PM
Quincy 34
@25 - I was just about to sit down and do that math myself. Thanks for the effort. It does appear to be over.

Having established that, I can't think of a time in WA politics when I have had more anticipation, excitement and curiosity about what someone is going to say. What will Greg say? Speculation plz!
Posted by Quincy on August 20, 2009 at 8:18 PM
35
DavidG @26, very well stated about Mallahan. He is a political dilettante. At least when Ross Perot bankrolled his own presidential campaigns, he was actually running because he believed in something. With Joe Mallahan, there's no there there, and the fact this allegedly sophisticated city has fallen for such banality in support of such cliched ambition--well, it doesn't reflect well on us.

Also, I'd like to hear what elections Mallahan failed to vote in in recent years. Could there be shades of Suzan DelBene?
Posted by cressona on August 20, 2009 at 8:27 PM
36
Another 15k came in today - total of 37k left to count and a few stragglers. So Nickels will have to pull 3% more than McGinn. Possible but it would look very suspicious.
Posted by abc on August 20, 2009 at 9:00 PM
37
abc @36: can you cite where you're getting these numbers from, cause I can't find them. The only published numbers I've seen were my earlier cited much lower figures, which were what the Times said election officials were telling them.

But you're correct, as the total number of votes increase, Nickels' threshold drops. At 27,000 votes he would need to get 29.2% (again assuming that McGinn and Mallahan only get 26% each and both have gotten that or more in the previous drops).
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 9:28 PM
38
nevermind.

Answered my own damn question. According to this site:
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200…

a total of 380,315 ballots were issued. They received an additional 15,687 today for a cumulative total of 144,232 ballots.

With 107,167 ballots tallied so far that leaves 37,065 yet to tally.

So maybe we should hold off on the Champagne just yet.

Incidentally, with all these ballots in the % of folks voting is now up to 37.92.
Posted by gnossos on August 20, 2009 at 9:47 PM
39
@33, what other stance is there from McGinn? I went to one of the candidate forums and every single question, whether about youth crime, schools, land-use, etc., he answered by saying he was against the tunnel and that by killing the tunnel, the city will have a ton of money to spend on other problems. It was almost like he wanted to avoid answering questions about anything but the tunnel. And please, the city has enough on its plate - do we really want city hall running the public schools? I want an environmental mayor (Nickels was not) but McGinn hasn't articulated a green, sustainable vision for Seattle or city government's appropriate role in moving us toward that vision. If he is an environmentalist, he's a pretty dispassionate one (not necessarily a bad thing). He wins very little green cred with me for his association with Sierra Club. Unlike a guy like Dave Sommers up in Snohomish County who spent years in the trenches of some very thorny environmental fights, McGinn doesn't seem to have any battle scars. Is he going to stand up to Vulcan and others?
Posted by Pete on August 20, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Mud Baby 40
You're wrong @27. Lord Mayor Nickels will get a big late bump right in his doublewide fat ass.
Posted by Mud Baby on August 20, 2009 at 11:12 PM
Supreme Ruler Of The Universe 41

It's disappointing that quality candidate Kwame Wyking Garrett was kept an Invisible Man by SLOG and other media powerhouses.
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://yrihf.com on August 20, 2009 at 11:38 PM
42
1. Very difficult for Nickels to beat the numbers at this stage. It would require a suspicious miracle.

2. It's not about the tunnel, or who's greener.

Reality: Come January,the new boss will be tending a fetid, steaming heap of overpaid city employees who want shit, who will explain how things have always been done, who will destroy ideas with their evil powers of inertia. Add a witless city council, and you'll get a sense of why the job will suck for whoever gets it.

Like it or not, competence does matter. The ability to ford the bureaucratic shit river is the real measure of effectiveness. Nickels, for all his faults, knew process, and he was smart enough to know you have to control it to get anything done. That means being an asshole, no matter what brainless idea you're pushing.

This will sound counterintuitive, but his problem wasn't that he was dictatorial - it's that he wasn't dictatorial enough, or maybe that he was dictatorial about the wrong things - big ideas instead of the trivia that annoys everyone. He's the boyfriend who writes folk songs instead of washing the fucking dishes.

The two newbies will have to contend with the competence issue, and idealists will have to think about it. Face it, zealots - at some point, you must exercise POWER to make things happen. So which rookie has the balls? That's the question.

McGinn has to prove that he can lead and twist arms. You all want to talk about tunnel/no-tunnel. You should be asking how the guy will play a salary negotiation with the cops, how he'll deal with the real powers in the city - the department heads and their analysts, who will pleasantly explain why he doesn't have a clue, in meetings you'll never hear about.

With Mallahan, it's the opposite. He'll have exec syndrome - he's accustomed to getting his way. Negotiation, back-slapping, deal-cutting, remembering names, pretending to care - all that politically obligatory stuff will be foreign to him.

These are the real dynamics. Think about them now, while you still have time.
More...
Posted by Malingerer on August 21, 2009 at 2:28 AM

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