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News & ArtsWednesday, August 19, 2009
Election Mallahan Leads McGinn By 221 Votes
Posted by Dominic Holden on Wed, Aug 19, 2009 at 4:32 PM
King County has updated the primary election results, and Joe Mallahan has advanced to a very slim lead over Mike McGinn; they have 21,101 and 20,880 votes, respectively. Nickels is still close behind in third place (with 19,864 votes). The top two will advance to the general election. Elections officials will update results every day at 4:30 p.m. until September 1.
Seattle Mayor
Joe Mallahan — 26.76%
Mike McGinn — 26.48%
Greg Nickels — 25.19%
James Donaldson — 8.76%
Jan Drago — 7.64%
Elizabeth Campbell — 2.91
Kwame Wyking Garrett — 1.06%
Norman Zadok Sigler — 0.90%
At this rate, we could be waiting a long time before finding out who will go on to the general election—and no campaign can be confident fundraising for the general election until it's settled. However, these results should be concerning to the McGinn camp, which hoped that ballots turned in later (and reported later) would reflect a younger, more progressive, more McGinn -riendly electorate. Even though the margin is paper thin, and it's impossible to be certain, these returns indicate Mallahan (who ran an aggressive TV campaign after ballots dropped) is picking more votes in the later turn-ins.
City Council Position No. 4
Sally Bagshaw — 51.12%
David Bloom — 18.27%
Dorsol Plants — 12.27%
Thomas Tobin — 9.52%
Brian Carver — 8.46%
City Council Position No. 6
Nick Licata — 53.59%
Jessie Israel — 30.11%
Marty Kaplan — 15.90%
City Council Position No. 8
Mike O'Brien — 34.62%
Robert Rosencrantz — 20.21%
Jordan Royer — 15.55%
David Miller — 12.20%
Bobby Forch — 11.98%
Rusty Williams — 5.08%
Referendum No. 1 (Bag fee)
APPROVED — 42.91%
REJECTED — 57.09%
King County Executive
Susan Hutchison — 35.92%
Dow Constantine — 23.40%
Fred Jarrett — 12.41%
Larry Phillips — 11.95%
Ross Hunter — 11.07%
Alan Lobdell — 2.57%
Stan Lippmann — 1.26%
Goodspaceguy — 1.26%
The rest of these results appear to solidify trends that last night's top two vote-getters will maintain their leads and advance to the general election. To that end, port races and school board contests show the same leaders as last night.
1
Mayor's race is still too close for comfort...Mallahan has a 1237 vote lead over Nickels and only a 221 vote lead over McGinn. McGinn is only 1016 up on Nickels....Nickels could still end up being on the November ballot.
Damn.
Damn.
4
How did this guy escape your attention? Kwame Wyking Garrett...he's the coolest candidate EVER!!
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDet…
Affiliation Republican
Name Kwame Wyking Garrett
Address
Seattle, Washington , United States
Email wyking7@yahoo.com
Website [Link]
Born March 03, 1977
Died Still Living (32 years)
Contributor RP
Last Modifed RP
Aug 01, 2009 12:10am
Tags Black - Conservative - Libertarian - Pro Marijuana Legalization - Pro-Smaller Government -
Info Small business owner and founder of Seattle's African American Heritage Museum and Cultural Center.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDet…
Affiliation Republican
Name Kwame Wyking Garrett
Address
Seattle, Washington , United States
Email wyking7@yahoo.com
Website [Link]
Born March 03, 1977
Died Still Living (32 years)
Contributor RP
Last Modifed RP
Aug 01, 2009 12:10am
Tags Black - Conservative - Libertarian - Pro Marijuana Legalization - Pro-Smaller Government -
Info Small business owner and founder of Seattle's African American Heritage Museum and Cultural Center.
5
More on Kwame:
Kwame Garrett: How I would address gang violence in Seattle
http://www.kcts9.org/video/kwame-wyking-…
Kwame Garrett: How I would address gang violence in Seattle
http://www.kcts9.org/video/kwame-wyking-…
6
There's only 2,878 ballots left to be counted in the mayor's race. The only way Nickels is in the general is if McGinn receives no more votes and Nickels takes over 35% of the remainder. Unless there's a re-count... how narrow does the margin have to be to trigger a re-count?
7
@3...true, but the numbers are still so tight that it makes me nervous. I wish we had some reliable sense of how many ballots are likely to still be counted.
9
Add it up. It says that in the mayor's race 81,725 ballots were cast. If you add up the totals for each candidate, you can see that 78,847 have been counted. That leaves 2,878 ballots left in that race--an impossibly small pool for Nickels to pull ahead of McGinn barring a re-count.
10
Your home for all things politics!
Unless you care about the Port races or the Healthcare debate.
Unless you care about the Port races or the Healthcare debate.
11
@6: where are you getting those numbers? Seatimes says they expect to count another 70,000 by tomorrow...granted that's countywide, but still, I think your numbers are wrong.
12
@9: yep, your numbers are all wrong...there are 379,721 registered voters...the ballots cast number is what they've counted so far.
13
@6 and @9 - What you're seeing is the undervote. People who cast a ballot but didn't vote in those races. Because ballots have to be postmarked by Election Day, they'll be arriving at KC Elections for a while still. King Co reports having received 90,000+ ballots from Seattle, and they're getting more every day. So calm yourselves. Still a ways to go to see how this will shake out.
14
Whoops. Those numbers are of ballots that the County has received already in the mail. They'll get more of them tomorrow, the next day, etc.
15
I'm sure I can spare some plastic bags for Greg to pack his things in. Sarah Palin does seem to be losing in this count, mind you.
Wasn't there a school board race?
Wasn't there a school board race?
16
@15 Sarah Palin has actually held elective office and has experience as Governor and Mayor. That makes her far more qualified than the TV Lady.
18
Gee I guess all that glad handing and falling all over yourselves in glee about McGinn, while hob nobbing at a celebration party might have been just a weeeeeeee bit premature huh?
Maybe now you'll give Mallahan a fair shake and actually do some genuine reporting?
I'd seriously laugh my ass off if McCheese supplants McGinn over the coming days...
Ohhh the handwringing that would commence by the high and lofty SECB ! Ohh nose!
*cough* *hacks* *cough*
Maybe now you'll give Mallahan a fair shake and actually do some genuine reporting?
I'd seriously laugh my ass off if McCheese supplants McGinn over the coming days...
Ohhh the handwringing that would commence by the high and lofty SECB ! Ohh nose!
*cough* *hacks* *cough*
20
Vote-by mail means that the numbers will change daily until the certification day. Then all other legally cast votes will be legally disenfranchised that arrive at elections after that day. Typically this week we will see most of the returns, but expect that it could take a while to get most of the ballots processed.
http://www.novbm.com
http://www.novbm.com
21
As noted elsewhere, Mallahan scored 30.87% of today's count.
McGinn 26.06%, and Nickels 25.76%.
That's a strong move by Mallahan, and a potentially worrisome trend for McGinn.
Nobody is safe yet, either.
McGinn 26.06%, and Nickels 25.76%.
That's a strong move by Mallahan, and a potentially worrisome trend for McGinn.
Nobody is safe yet, either.
22
Is the Stranger the new P-I when it comes to endorsements? Stranger candidate endorsements that made top 2: 10 out of 11, 8.5 of which received the greatest # of votes. Wrong only on Plants, which they today said "let’s be real—nobody thought he would [go on to the general election]."
23
Nickels' slide in this election is still quite a surprise. Looks like the voters didn't forget his snowpocalypse reaction after all. I'm not a big Nickels fan at all but whoa.
24
According to the Times of the 34,000 votes counted today almost 16,000 (about 47%) were from Seattle. They expect to count another 70,000 by tomorrow afternoon.
If the same ratio holds (could be a dubious assumption, but we don't have much else to go on), then there are about 32,900 Seattle ballots to be counted by tomorrow afternoon (70,000*.47).
The mayoral outcome for sure, is way too close.
If the same ratio holds (could be a dubious assumption, but we don't have much else to go on), then there are about 32,900 Seattle ballots to be counted by tomorrow afternoon (70,000*.47).
The mayoral outcome for sure, is way too close.
25
Seattle is going to go with ANOTHER unfailingly pro-business mayor? Great. There goes my hope of tearing down that ugly, motherfucking skybridge at the Convention Center given to us by Paul Schell - a tradition continued by Greg Nickels.
26
I've heard from people who ended up not voting in the mail-in only vote because they found they didn't have stamps.
Why aren't the vote by mail evelopes postage paid ?
There are whole cities in King County with no drop in boxes. How does this not in effect constitute an illegal poll tax ?
Do other mail-in only election regions lack postage paid envelopes ?
What ever happened with that previous election when the envelopes turned out to be too large to mail with a single stamp and people weren't warned ?
Why aren't the vote by mail evelopes postage paid ?
There are whole cities in King County with no drop in boxes. How does this not in effect constitute an illegal poll tax ?
Do other mail-in only election regions lack postage paid envelopes ?
What ever happened with that previous election when the envelopes turned out to be too large to mail with a single stamp and people weren't warned ?
27
Mallahan and Nickels are basically splitting the same pool of moderate-liberal votes. Whichever of them advances to the primary will beat McGinn by a landslide.
28
26, if a voter that is physically able, but does not bother to, obtain a STAMP, and then chooses to not go to a FREE drop off location, then that voter does not deserve to have any say in an election. Do ya remember the olden days when voters actually had to GO to a polling station? OH MY GOD, I mean, like, how did ANYBODY ever vote back in the olden days?!!?!?!??!?!!?!?!?!?! It's AMAZING that our Republic ever even survived, given that people actually had to LEAVE THEIR HOUSE to cast a vote!!!! ZOMG!!!11111!!!
29
Simply put - YES the stamp is a de facto poll tax.
Challenged, courts would strike it down.
Some of the fools here think a poll tax is 100.00 or more.
Silly kids. (if they get the concept which was so used to keep poor blacks from voting.)
Voting cannot cost the voter. Simple.
Challenged, courts would strike it down.
Some of the fools here think a poll tax is 100.00 or more.
Silly kids. (if they get the concept which was so used to keep poor blacks from voting.)
Voting cannot cost the voter. Simple.
30
However, these results should be concerning to the McGinn camp, which hoped that ballots turned in later (and reported later) would reflect a younger, more progressive, more McGinn -riendly electorate.
Hey, if it makes you feel any less concerned, McGinn campers, I myself am younger, more progressive, and more McGinn -riendly, and I voted (for McGinn) at the absolute last possible minute! There may hopefully be more like me out there!
Hey, if it makes you feel any less concerned, McGinn campers, I myself am younger, more progressive, and more McGinn -riendly, and I voted (for McGinn) at the absolute last possible minute! There may hopefully be more like me out there!
31
Even in the old timey days, voting cost something - gas or bus fare to get to a polling station. Was that a tax? BUT! Someone could have walked there for free! Well, someone can walk now to a drop off box. Except now that everyone's obese I guess that's kinda hard. Maybe that means it's really a tax on the fatties? Honestly Americans are so fucking lazy and whiny. In other countries people might travel for days and stand in lines for hours and hours to cast votes. And here, they mail the fucking thing TO YOUR HOUSE, and all you have to do is fill it out and put a fucking stamp on it. OR drop it off at a FREE drop-off location. And everybody sits and cries, and then gets on the Internet to bitch and moan. What luxury we have in this country.
32
#1 - you know nothing about the OLD days - get a clue.
You went to the polling place, signed the book, they handed you a ballot.
THEY DID NOT ASK FOR A QUARTER OR A DOLLAR OR A PENNY.
A stamp is now 44 cents, it is a poll tax paid by the voter.
Someday there will be a court challenge, I will bet it gets struck down and the county must do prepaid mailing, wherein they pay all the postage each direction.
You went to the polling place, signed the book, they handed you a ballot.
THEY DID NOT ASK FOR A QUARTER OR A DOLLAR OR A PENNY.
A stamp is now 44 cents, it is a poll tax paid by the voter.
Someday there will be a court challenge, I will bet it gets struck down and the county must do prepaid mailing, wherein they pay all the postage each direction.
33
@26:
That's interesting because the results so far indicate that turnout will be quite high for an off-year primary election. Turnout is easily better than 2005's primary but no one cared that year and though I'm having trouble finding definitive stats for Seattle specifically, it appears to be substantially better than the 2001 primary.
That's interesting because the results so far indicate that turnout will be quite high for an off-year primary election. Turnout is easily better than 2005's primary but no one cared that year and though I'm having trouble finding definitive stats for Seattle specifically, it appears to be substantially better than the 2001 primary.
35
Pretty much everyone who wanted McGinn got their ballots in early, as their minds were already made up well before Tuesday... thus their ballots generally came in earlier. So, not sure about that notion that most late ballots will slide that way.
37
Trying to infer what large numbers of other people do based on what the small numbers of people that you know do is a tragically common error. It is misleading on at least two crucial fronts: small sample size and that the people you know are far more likely to share things in common (and behave similarly) than people you don't know.
Unfortunately, no one seems to be doing a statistical breakdown right now of where votes are coming from and what the trends are.
Unfortunately, no one seems to be doing a statistical breakdown right now of where votes are coming from and what the trends are.
38
A few clarifications are needed on the poll tax.
1. Neighborhood voting stations were far more plentiful than the new drop off stations. You used to be able to walk to to the neighborhood voting stations. Now, many whole cities have no drop off stations at all.
2. With the new postage stamp machines, single stamps can't be bought and a whole book must be purchased for something over $8. For the struggling artist types that I'm talking about, this is more than some can afford in this economy.
All this is just begging for some sore loser in a close contest to launch a messy and expensive court challenge to an election.
Regardless of whether people think that these people's reasons for missing the vote were valid, the fact remains that they did so because of this policy. A seemingly endless variety of twists on the poll tax theme were tried in the past and sweeeping court decisions struck down every last one of them. If someone launches a court challenge, we'll be in for a real mess.
1. Neighborhood voting stations were far more plentiful than the new drop off stations. You used to be able to walk to to the neighborhood voting stations. Now, many whole cities have no drop off stations at all.
2. With the new postage stamp machines, single stamps can't be bought and a whole book must be purchased for something over $8. For the struggling artist types that I'm talking about, this is more than some can afford in this economy.
All this is just begging for some sore loser in a close contest to launch a messy and expensive court challenge to an election.
Regardless of whether people think that these people's reasons for missing the vote were valid, the fact remains that they did so because of this policy. A seemingly endless variety of twists on the poll tax theme were tried in the past and sweeeping court decisions struck down every last one of them. If someone launches a court challenge, we'll be in for a real mess.
39
The turnout this election is pathetic. Only 24.98% of registered voters in King County voted. There are still a small number of votes which will wander in but very few will come in 3 days after the mail-in date. It only takes a day or two for mail to travel such a short distance.
This is a much more closely contested race than the 2005 primary yet the turnout is much lower.
This is a much more closely contested race than the 2005 primary yet the turnout is much lower.
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