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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

City Poll: McGinn Could Win

Posted by Dominic Holden on Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 5:00 PM

Originally posted at 3:50 p.m. and updated with numbers on the King County Executive race and more info on mayoral candidates.

A poll released today indicates that Mike McGinn has edged past Joe Mallahan for second place in the mayor's race. Mayor Greg Nickels still has the lead, the survey by Strategies 360 and Don McDonough Associates shows, but his grip could be short-lived.

Greg Nickels 24%
Mike McGinn 16%
Joe Mallahan 15%
Kwame Garett 0%
Jan Drago 8%
James Donaldson 6%
Elizabeth Campbell 4%
Norman Sigler 0%
Undecided 26%

"Whoever gets into the general election race with the mayor has got to be viewed as having an excellent chance at this point, given where the mayor’s number are now," says long-time Seattle pollster Don McDonough. "He is not very popular at the moment."

Meanwhile, "Drago has really stalled out. I would characterize her as pretty much finished," McDonough says. "There are pretty much three people in the race right now."

In the King County Executive race, Dow Constantine is emerging as the clear challenger to Republican Susan Hutchison.

Susan Hutchison 31%
Dow Constantine 13%
Ross Hunter 6%
Fred Jarrett 6%
Larry Phillips 5%
Alan Lobdell 1%
Stan Lippman <1%
Goodspaceguy <1%

Constantine has a "solid lead" inside the Seattle city limits, McDonough says, whereas Hutchinson is leading in less populated parts of the county. "Hutchison is pretty clearly having one of the spots on the general election ballot and everything points to Constantine having the other," he says.

As in all recent polls, the bag fee appears to be going down. Only 40 percent of responders said they would vote yes or lean yes for the measure, which would place a 20-cent fee on disposable shopping bags in grocery stores. Fifty-four percent of voters said they would vote no or lean no. Six percent were undecided.

McDonough says that 500 likely voters in next week's primary election were interviewed for the county race (giving it a 4.3 percent margin of error) and 300 were interviewed for the city races (giving it a 5.3 percent margin of error).

Comments (22) RSS

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Go McGinn Go!

Posted by Mantooth on August 12, 2009 at 3:55 PM

Although Drago is the reform version of Nickles so you have to add their numbers together and then compare to runner up plus all others who are not Nickles minime's

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe

on August 12, 2009 at 4:00 PM

who sponsored this poll? I think I've been hit up three times at home over the last week or two and i was bored enough to answer all the surveys.

FWIW, they all seemed like they came from McGinn based on the way the questions were worded. One of them was god awful as every question started out "Some say...." and then spouted off numbers, positions, or general opinions.

I'm still waiting on answers for how McGInn is going to pay for his "surface/transit" option. I won;t vote for a naysayer with nothing else in his box of records.

Posted by beef on August 12, 2009 at 4:26 PM

Interesting, but while I would vote for Drago in a Drago vs Nickels race, I would vote for McGinn (and did in the primary) in a McGinn vs Nickels race.

This is something that should be discussed over free pizza and beer on Thursday at the mailing in ballots party at Piacora's .... (yes, I know it's SLOG Happy, but it's free pizza and beer)

Posted by Will in Seattle

on August 12, 2009 at 4:34 PM

"Free pizza and beer." DAMN! I love democracy. BTW. I'm voting for Norman Sigler. He's the most cogent of the non-incumbents.

Posted by fARTing on August 12, 2009 at 4:51 PM

With a margin of error of 5.3 percent, your analysis that McGinn has "edged past" Mallahan is asinine. Go take a statistics class, Dominic. And try a reporting class while you're at it.

Posted by Never thought I'd miss Erica on August 12, 2009 at 5:12 PM

Not sure about McGinn.

I'm fine with him being opposed to the tunnel, but I'm not sure he's right on it, and trying sink that project now is counter productive and counter stimulative.

If his position is simply that he wouldn't have supported the tunnel if he were in office last term, fine, I can live with his philosophy. But the tunnel is a done deal and if elected he should do his best to keep it on course.

Posted by seandr on August 12, 2009 at 5:16 PM

Once I was an "anybody but Nickels supporter". Then I met some of those "anybodies".

I'd vote for Nickels over McGinn.

Posted by SP on August 12, 2009 at 5:22 PM

Has campaigning for Stranger-backed candidates on Slog reached point of wretched excess?

Posted by Edmund Burke on August 12, 2009 at 5:23 PM

I simply cannot believe so many are voting for Mallahan. If you're a Republican, at least vote for Donaldson, who at least has, uh, vague plans to read to schoolkids and stuff.

Voters in this race are really grinding my gears. The bag tax and Mallahan show what a lot of voters like most is ad money going to KIRO. There can't be that many diehard conservatives and Will in Seattles in this city (ban plastic bags instead! even though plastic bags are good for the environment!).

Posted by lizzie on August 12, 2009 at 6:06 PM

Go McGinn, go!

Posted by thought about voting for Nickels, but nah-thanx on August 12, 2009 at 6:26 PM

Nickels has robocalled my home three times in two days and we have received waaaaaaaay too many mailers from him. The man so does not have my vote just for the robocalls alone.

Posted by au_gout on August 12, 2009 at 8:08 PM

McGinn is right on transportation and schools - he has my vote! Plus, what he'll spend on social programs and schools he'll make up for in not building the deep bore tunnel (that's loud and clear Mike). Although Drago may have more gov't experience, I cringe at the thought of a ballot in November with just Dumb and Dumb-er to decide between.

Posted by anniebsea on August 12, 2009 at 8:39 PM

@13: "Plus, what he'll spend on social programs and schools he'll make up for in not building the deep bore tunnel"

That's just stupid hippy math.

Most of the tunnel funds are state money. If you don't build the tunnel, they will NOT go to Seattle schools or social programs. They'll go to some highway project in Eastern Washington instead.

Mike has liberal passion, but he doesn't have the brains to run a city. I'm just going to keep voting for Nickels until Steinbrueck runs.

Posted by seandr on August 12, 2009 at 8:59 PM

@ 14, oh no, the math works if they use the same revenue gathering methods, they have to toll sidewalks, schools, and the door to the DSHS office.

It is really dumb math. Take the 900 million dollar empty promise away and I guess he has other stuff to run on, and I am sure the Koolaidbongwater drinkers will tell me allll about it.

No tunnel, no toll, no - really.

Posted by Mr. Baker on August 12, 2009 at 9:24 PM

Well looks like I'll win the big three I voted for:

Nickels
Hutchinson
and no to the bag tax.

Sloggers, starting your howling!

Posted by Daved78 on August 12, 2009 at 9:35 PM

Mallahan
Ross Hunter
no bag tax

yes, start your howling.

Posted by Mr. Baker on August 12, 2009 at 10:05 PM

Um, 26% is a lot of undecideds, and could easily sway that polling sample in any direction this time next time... never minding this is a sample of voluntary survey participants. People unwilling to participate and not surveyed could sway the results completely out of whack.

I give this little more credence than an internet poll on some blog.

Posted by Gomez

on August 12, 2009 at 11:47 PM

@6
You raise the age-old questions:
Which fucks your brain up more-
cheap Red Wine
or Pot?

Posted by Al Zimer on August 13, 2009 at 5:43 AM

I intentionally set aside Democrat/Republican affiliations during this primary, and voted for the best candidate. I don't care about their gender, ethnicity, age, physical abilities, religious preferences, or whatever else you hipsters use to distinguish between candidates. Go ahead, elect a homophobic Democrat over a lesbian Republican, just because she's has a vagina. (oops, just because she's a Republican was what I meant).

But, whatever, sheeple. You'll still vote based on the label and not the content.

Posted by mmbb_c on August 13, 2009 at 7:26 AM