Slog
News & ArtsThursday, August 6, 2009
Homo Murray Says R-71 Probably Won't Make Ballot
Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Aug 6, 2009 at 3:24 PM
We've been beating the shit out of this dead horse on Slog the last two days, but you know what? We hate horses. This afternoon State Senator Ed Murray—who sponsored the domestic partnership bill that Referendum 71's sponsors are attempting to repeal—has released a statement that predicts R-71 doesn't have enough signatures (of course you should knock on wood, cross your fingers, and catch a leprechaun with rabbit feet before you read this):
The current rate of invalid signatures reported by the Secretary of State’s office in the R-71 signature count gives me great hope that the referendum won’t make the ballot. However, there’s a bit of confusion out there about how the count is trending because of an inconsistency in the math used to report the rate. The Secretary of State’s blog first reported that the error rate had to stay under 14.2 percent for the referendum to qualify — referred to as "the cushion." That cushion was derived by dividing the number of signatures turned in (137,689) by the number needed to qualify (120,577) and subtracting 1. With the cumulative invalid rate of 13.3 percent as of Wednesday, many have been led to believe that the referendum supporters are within their cushion.This is wrong. That’s because in its subsequent reporting of the daily signature check, the Secretary of State’s blog reversed its math, dividing the number of signatures verified by the number examined. It’s confusing when one method is used to determine the overall rates and the opposite method is used in the daily reports.
Here's a chart:
More from Murray after the jump.
If the Secretary of State’s blog had first used the math that it is using now, it would have divided the total they need to verify (120,577) by the total number they will count (137,689) —and, again, subtracted 1 — for a maximum invalid rate of 12.4 percent. Or, if the Secretary of State’s blog were still using the math it began with, the current error rate would be 15.4 percent, rather than 13.3 percent.
We know that 15.4 percent is higher than 14.2 percent, and 13.3 percent is higher than 12.4 percent.
Either way, when consistent methods are used, the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot.
1
I'm still holding my breath. I won't be happy until the whole thing is thrown out and the right faces another defeat.
4
We need that guy from the show "Cheaters" to come do an expose on the tools who are pushing this piece of garbage.
5
The error rate is going to keep going up, since they'll continue to find more and more repeat signatures.
8
HIGHLY imprudent for Murray to make that statement, if you ask me. If you don't mind, I'm just going to copy what I wrote over at Horsesass
Referendum 71 voters will be asked to approve or reject the domestic partnership law.
PRINT AND DISTRIBUTE HANDOUTS AND PLACARDS !
More...
Your analysis is based on the assumption that the samples so far have been representative of the entire 137,689 pool of raw signatures. We won’t know whether that’s the case until we’ve seen them. It wouldn’t surprise me, for example, for some batches of petitions to have been collected in closed, controlled locations (church, KoC meeting hall) where the organizers were very careful to have people fill out voter registration cards at the same time as needed, and therefore to have exceedingly low Not Found rates. Larry Stickney is a bumbling idiot in so many ways, but he has been working the conservative voter registration picket for years and could conceivably managed this level of organization in some places. These are the real world considerations which make me keep my Mt Dew capped tight and my butt in the WAFST.org volunteer chair until, as Rob said, we know that it is mathematically impossible for this flaming load of bigot crap to qualify for the ballot.To the extent that Senator Murray's statement discourages people from continuing to prepare for the possibility of the ballot, it is very unfortunate.
Referendum 71 voters will be asked to approve or reject the domestic partnership law.
REFERENDUM 71DONATE TO WASHINGTON FAMILIES STANDING TOGETHER !
Ballot Title
Statement of Subject: The legislature passed Engrossed Second Substitute Senate Bill 5688 concerning rights and responsibilities of state-registered domestic partners [and voters have filed a sufficient referendum petition on this bill].
Concise Description: This bill would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations accorded state-registered same-sex and senior domestic partners to be equivalent to those of married spouses, except that a domestic partnership is not a marriage.
Should this bill be:
Approved ___
Rejected ___
Ballot Measure Summary
Same-sex couples, or any couple that includes one person age sixty-two or older, may register as a domestic partnership with the state. Registered domestic partnerships are not marriages, and marriage is prohibited except between one man and one woman. This bill would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations of registered domestic partners and their families to include all rights, responsibilities, and obligations granted by or imposed by state law on married couples and their families.
PRINT AND DISTRIBUTE HANDOUTS AND PLACARDS !
9
The statistician in the audience ran a little calculation using a hypergeometric distribution (Since there's a finite number of signatures and more than 15% of them have been checked), and under some general assumption of "randomness", the likelihood of Referendum 71 making the ballot with the invalidation rates presently observed is approximately 11:1000000. 11 in a million. Those are nice odds, aren't they?
10
... Pardon the statistician that used the word likelihood in the conventional sense, not the statistical sense. (Likelihood involves varying the parameters of a model with respect to a given outcome/set of outcomes.)
11
And will Ken Hutcherson accept this as final proof that God does indeed love the homos?
Nope, he'll issue some bullshit about how this is challenge from God and that they're blessed that this failed, so that they can rise to the challenge...blah, blah, blah
Nope, he'll issue some bullshit about how this is challenge from God and that they're blessed that this failed, so that they can rise to the challenge...blah, blah, blah
12
#8
You certainly have a point worth noting. I think that what Mr. Murray highlights is the importance to pay more attention and make sure that R 71's death is imminent. So far the news is optimistic. It is by no means over.
So, Mr. Murray's statement today is the "call your friends, talk to your family, do what you must to see this fucker die..!"
You certainly have a point worth noting. I think that what Mr. Murray highlights is the importance to pay more attention and make sure that R 71's death is imminent. So far the news is optimistic. It is by no means over.
So, Mr. Murray's statement today is the "call your friends, talk to your family, do what you must to see this fucker die..!"
13
@9 "some general assumption of "randomness""
that's a problematic assumption in a situation where signatures were collected in batches with potentially varying signature quality, but the batches are (presumably) not being randomly sampled.
that's a problematic assumption in a situation where signatures were collected in batches with potentially varying signature quality, but the batches are (presumably) not being randomly sampled.
14
@11 When stories come out about a 110 year old dying, not many attribute it to the glory of God, people try to find a physical, human reason someone lives that long. But when a 5 year old dies in any kind of tragedy the evangelicals are all ready to praise the mysteries of God.
That is a fucked up system right there.
That is a fucked up system right there.
15
@9: Yeah, nice odds, except for the "general assumption of randomness", which is a big assumption. Lurleen @8 mentions some good reasons not to have confidence in that assumption. If you were to bet, you should bet on its falling short, but don't give the person you're betting with million-to-eleven odds! The people running the petition drive must have instilled a pretty good sense of discipline in their workers -- the invalid rate is coming in low compared to other signature drives I've followed. That's what makes Lovechild's paranoia so comical: she's sure there are "plants" among the checkers who are throwing out good signatures. Those plants must be pretty lazy, for the invalid rate to be so very low.
16
@9: Yeah, nice odds, except for the "general assumption of randomness", which is a big assumption. Lurleen @8 mentions some good reasons not to have confidence in that assumption. If you were to bet, you should bet on its falling short, but don't give the person you're betting with million-to-eleven odds! The people running the petition drive must have instilled a pretty good sense of discipline in their workers -- the invalid rate is coming in low compared to other signature drives I've followed. That's what makes Lovechild's paranoia so comical: she's sure there are "plants" among the checkers who are throwing out good signatures. Those plants must be pretty lazy, for the invalid rate to be so very low.
17
Hear hear #12...!
Finally someone is giving us the low down on the situation. I mean really ... here is a gay politico that is willing to share info that is sometimes difficult to get from other Mos..!
Geezuz people... this is the "the work we're doing is totally working" good news... and a wake up call "keep fuckn' doing it..!!"
Finally someone is giving us the low down on the situation. I mean really ... here is a gay politico that is willing to share info that is sometimes difficult to get from other Mos..!
Geezuz people... this is the "the work we're doing is totally working" good news... and a wake up call "keep fuckn' doing it..!!"
19
Lurleen - we are all ready to go if the NEED is there. Red flag waving for 20 days is a bit silly though.
Ed is the leader of this community. Leaders speak to truth and rational perspective.I am glad he put his very reasoned opinion on the table.
Thanks Ed. And, Lurleen can maybe get some sleep.
Ed is the leader of this community. Leaders speak to truth and rational perspective.I am glad he put his very reasoned opinion on the table.
Thanks Ed. And, Lurleen can maybe get some sleep.
20
@8: I can't see that anywhere in what he said. I see him saying he's hopeful that if trends continue, this will fail to make the ballot. I also see him correcting wrong-headed math.
I think it's terribly disrespectful, Lurleen, to assume that the Senator that almost singlehandedly got this pushed through this session would even dare to look before he leaped. I can understand that you would be wanting the tension to go on for as long as possible, considering this petition is your bread and butter, but some of us want to be hopeful, come hell or high water.
We'll see what this afternoon's error rate is. If it's anything less than 13, then maybe we can tell Senator Murray to tone it down. Otherwise, can you please show some positivity?
I think it's terribly disrespectful, Lurleen, to assume that the Senator that almost singlehandedly got this pushed through this session would even dare to look before he leaped. I can understand that you would be wanting the tension to go on for as long as possible, considering this petition is your bread and butter, but some of us want to be hopeful, come hell or high water.
We'll see what this afternoon's error rate is. If it's anything less than 13, then maybe we can tell Senator Murray to tone it down. Otherwise, can you please show some positivity?
21
@11 - Ken Hutcherson did not back R71, so he will be over the moon if it fails because it will be further proof (to him, at least) that he is so important to the anti-gay movement in Washington that anything he doesn't back is doomed to failure. He'll be praising Jesus because R71's failure will be proof that Ken is God's anointed one.
23
#21
Not to be rude, but, the Rev. Ken is very ill with cancer. His inability to be involved for what ever reason has worked to the strategical benefit of the Gay community.
On the other side, he does have a real following and name recognition.
Mocking him at this point of his life is very bad manners, too, ask your mother.
Not to be rude, but, the Rev. Ken is very ill with cancer. His inability to be involved for what ever reason has worked to the strategical benefit of the Gay community.
On the other side, he does have a real following and name recognition.
Mocking him at this point of his life is very bad manners, too, ask your mother.
24
Ah, so this afternoon's batch of 4k had an error rate of 14.9%, and the duplicate rate went up too.
Here's the stats page: http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/osos/en/initi…
The Secretary of State added this on the right side of the page, emphasis mine:
I seem to remember some saying that there would be statistical anomalies at first but that they'd smooth out. Some due to checkers being less diligent at first, some due to the first batch being drawn from what is likely to be a large batch collected and sorted at the last minute, but it would largely smooth out. That turned out to be true.
Here's the stats page: http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/osos/en/initi…
The Secretary of State added this on the right side of the page, emphasis mine:
“Percent rejected,” displayed in Table 1, can also be referred to as the “error rate.” The error rate for a day’s batch of signatures should not be used to project what the error rate will be when the signature check is complete. Why? The rate at which duplicate signatures are found will increase as the number of signatures checked increases, until all signatures are verified. The rate at which other signatures are rejected should remain relatively constant until all signatures have been verified. Finally, percent rejected includes signatures pending county confirmation. See notation below for more information about “pending county confirmation.”
I seem to remember some saying that there would be statistical anomalies at first but that they'd smooth out. Some due to checkers being less diligent at first, some due to the first batch being drawn from what is likely to be a large batch collected and sorted at the last minute, but it would largely smooth out. That turned out to be true.
25
Honestly we should just be ignoring all this and just sit tight until the signatures have all been examined and the final valid signature count determined.
Until then it's just a fucking soap opera. A math soap opera at that. There is absolutely nothing we can do during this process, except maybe pre-emptively endorsing an APPROVED vote on the potential referendum.
(And yes, an APPROVED vote is what we will want. Someone said at the 30th last night that "we won't know which one it is until it's on the ballot". I don't know why they said that. We want to APPROVE SB 5688 therefore we want to vote APPROVED on its referendum.)
Until then it's just a fucking soap opera. A math soap opera at that. There is absolutely nothing we can do during this process, except maybe pre-emptively endorsing an APPROVED vote on the potential referendum.
(And yes, an APPROVED vote is what we will want. Someone said at the 30th last night that "we won't know which one it is until it's on the ballot". I don't know why they said that. We want to APPROVE SB 5688 therefore we want to vote APPROVED on its referendum.)
26
It's perfectly reasonable for the WAFST campaign, it's surrogates, and concerned citizens to warn against complacency before the defeat of Referendum 71 is assured, but I think we can cut Senator Murray some slack since he qualified his statements very carefully and stuck to the data saying that "the current rate of invalid signatures clearly suggests that R-71 won’t make the ballot".
For those who want to take a look at an online spreadsheet that uses the Elections Divisions own formulas to track progress as the daily numbers come in (with a simple "No Referendum" and "Referendum occurs" indication) and comparisons to numbers from four previous initiatives: http://workspace.office.live.com/?id=qAC…
Full credit to stat-guy Matthew Nichols.
For those who want to take a look at an online spreadsheet that uses the Elections Divisions own formulas to track progress as the daily numbers come in (with a simple "No Referendum" and "Referendum occurs" indication) and comparisons to numbers from four previous initiatives: http://workspace.office.live.com/?id=qAC…
Full credit to stat-guy Matthew Nichols.
28
Why are you all afraid of a vote on the issue? Are you afraid of democracy? Afraid of the majority opinion ? If any issue has merit the citizens will vote to uphold the law or issue right?
Am I missing something in this hypocrisy?
Is democracy cool only if it doesn't get in the way of what you want?
Following the signature like this day after day, may spell an initiative going down from appearing on the ballot, but what does it say about the number of folks it did reach? that 85+ % that actually did sign had a strong interest to see this on the ballot. Nothing more, nothing less.
The fact that you are afraid of citizens exercising their right to vote is damn scary. It says alot about the collective group in fact.
Am I missing something in this hypocrisy?
Is democracy cool only if it doesn't get in the way of what you want?
Following the signature like this day after day, may spell an initiative going down from appearing on the ballot, but what does it say about the number of folks it did reach? that 85+ % that actually did sign had a strong interest to see this on the ballot. Nothing more, nothing less.
The fact that you are afraid of citizens exercising their right to vote is damn scary. It says alot about the collective group in fact.
29
@28: The R&I process was not made to force a vote to oust the will of the people you disagree with and their duly elected representatives, it was to allow people to overturn legislation proposed and passed from outside influence, i.e. corporations or out-of-state interests(i.e., Gary Randall).
Moreover, it was meant largely as a means of preventing outside monetary interests from usurping the fiduciary prerogative of the legislature for personal gain, not to force a vote on social issues that are best met with an even and unbiased hand.
Nobody is afraid of a vote, people are just bothered that we are voting and voting and voting and voting, whether by direct or representative democracy, when it's clear that the most rational and level-headed of approaches is to just let this thing alone and move forward rather than backward. And failing any monetary stake in this for any outside group, this fails the test by which the R&I process was begun.
So if you're going to comment on something like this, understand how it works.
Moreover, it was meant largely as a means of preventing outside monetary interests from usurping the fiduciary prerogative of the legislature for personal gain, not to force a vote on social issues that are best met with an even and unbiased hand.
Nobody is afraid of a vote, people are just bothered that we are voting and voting and voting and voting, whether by direct or representative democracy, when it's clear that the most rational and level-headed of approaches is to just let this thing alone and move forward rather than backward. And failing any monetary stake in this for any outside group, this fails the test by which the R&I process was begun.
So if you're going to comment on something like this, understand how it works.
30
@ 28 - Fine with me if R-71 makes the ballot. Maybe even better. It'd get a well-deserved thumping from Washington voters at large, and probably have an even broader impact on civil rights nationwide (at the expense of painfully delaying the exercise of these rights by a number of Washington couples in the interim).
31
At least he's on record of deliberately wanting to obstruct a democratic process.
"inconsistency in the math used to report the rate"
I wonder how many "friends" of his are currently involved on the counting and making sure that the numbers required for approval don't amount to the needed for the ref to take place.
I mean, the treachery and callous disrespect for the people coming out of this man and the other cohorts is overwhelming.
"inconsistency in the math used to report the rate"
I wonder how many "friends" of his are currently involved on the counting and making sure that the numbers required for approval don't amount to the needed for the ref to take place.
I mean, the treachery and callous disrespect for the people coming out of this man and the other cohorts is overwhelming.
32
"Lurleen - we are all ready to go if the NEED is there. Red flag waving for 20 days is a bit silly though."
Tell that to the complacent people of California who are now crying in their beer.
"Ed is the leader of this community. Leaders speak to truth and rational perspective.I am glad he put his very reasoned opinion on the table."
Ed is a very important leader yes, but he is not the leader and his words are not immune to criticism.
And Baroncat, this referendum is not "my bread and butter". I am volunteering 100% of my time. You got that? I have forgone earning potential to work for free for "us". I have been guardedly optimistic in my discussion over the ongoing results. Sue me if I feel it's more important to insure victory than giggle away 2 weeks of valuable prep time.
Tell that to the complacent people of California who are now crying in their beer.
"Ed is the leader of this community. Leaders speak to truth and rational perspective.I am glad he put his very reasoned opinion on the table."
Ed is a very important leader yes, but he is not the leader and his words are not immune to criticism.
And Baroncat, this referendum is not "my bread and butter". I am volunteering 100% of my time. You got that? I have forgone earning potential to work for free for "us". I have been guardedly optimistic in my discussion over the ongoing results. Sue me if I feel it's more important to insure victory than giggle away 2 weeks of valuable prep time.
33
Loveschild, for days you've been claiming there are gay "plants" among the signature checkers who are wrongly rejecting names to keep R71 off the ballot. Would you please cite the evidence upon which you base these claims? Which of the checkers are the "plants". How are they getting away with wrongly rejecting names when each name they reject is being checked by a representative of the secretary of state, a pro-71 rep., and an anti-71 rep.?
34
@33: Well, odds are 10% of the checkers are gay, right? Maybe LC's onto something!
Oh, and math is gay, too.
Oh, and math is gay, too.
35
@32: Let's recall how dour and negative the "No on 8" campaign was versus the light-hearted and often "uplifting" "Yes on 8" campaign with its cheerful yellow signs and the parade of children trotting around as though they were defying the gays.
That's my problem. Your volunteering could be detrimental if you're going around spooking everyone.
That's my problem. Your volunteering could be detrimental if you're going around spooking everyone.
36
#32 - Dear Lureen, where dear have you been?
Under any criteria, guise, expectation, evaluation, editorial, gossip buzz, expert testitmony, COMMON SENSE, earned stripes, political acumen - under any and all El Ed Murray is the leader of the GLBT community in the State of Washington.
Sorry, just fact.. Either you are new and don't understand his 25 years of hard work and unending dedication - or - you have some kind of blinded sense of his community support.
El Ed it it. Trust us as we say it. By the way, he gets wild cheers and applause at any event where he is recognized. Wild, wild, wild.
Clue in. And his career is not over, as we all suspect that he will be a strong contender for the 7th seat to Congress some day ... here is one fag willing to work hard for that next step in a fine career of service and leadership.
Under any criteria, guise, expectation, evaluation, editorial, gossip buzz, expert testitmony, COMMON SENSE, earned stripes, political acumen - under any and all El Ed Murray is the leader of the GLBT community in the State of Washington.
Sorry, just fact.. Either you are new and don't understand his 25 years of hard work and unending dedication - or - you have some kind of blinded sense of his community support.
El Ed it it. Trust us as we say it. By the way, he gets wild cheers and applause at any event where he is recognized. Wild, wild, wild.
Clue in. And his career is not over, as we all suspect that he will be a strong contender for the 7th seat to Congress some day ... here is one fag willing to work hard for that next step in a fine career of service and leadership.
37
@ Baroncat wow, thanks for letting me know how influential I am! I have the power to sink whole campaigns. Who knew?
@ Ace I didn't realize Sen. Murray* was a product of the immaculate conception. I'll remember to prostrate myself next time, maybe even try to touch the hem of His garment.
*In all sincerity, I think Murray is a great public servant. This does not make him perfect or immune from criticism.
@ Ace I didn't realize Sen. Murray* was a product of the immaculate conception. I'll remember to prostrate myself next time, maybe even try to touch the hem of His garment.
*In all sincerity, I think Murray is a great public servant. This does not make him perfect or immune from criticism.
38
Food for thought: if people do not want an issue to come up for a popular vote, isn't that a tacit admission that they believe their side would be defeated? If so, WHY THE HECK WAS THE LAW ENACTED IN THE FIRST PLACE? The voters aren't elected by the representatives--the representatives are elected by the voters, the same ones y'all don't want to be allowed to vote on this issue. Funny thing, eh?
Advertisement
Most Commented on Slog
-
Hating People Doesn't Make Them Thinner by Jen Graves
-
Los Angeles Gay Bar Bans Bachelorette Parties Until Marriage Equality Is Attained by David Schmader
-
Fill in the Blank by Grant Brissey
-
This Reminds Me of the Great Calculator Scare of the Late '70s/Early '80s by David Schmader
-
Idiot Tries to Defend Bigoted Anti-Gay-Marriage Preacher on Anderson Cooper by Paul Constant
-
Six Moms with Too Much Time on Their Hands and a Shitty Website Decide to Fight Gay Superheroes by Paul Constant
-
Why Mayor McGinn's Wife Canceled Her Family's Seattle Times Subscription by Eli Sanders
-
What the Hell Is Wrong With Seattle's Pride Parade? by Dominic Holden
-
The Saturday Morning News by Unpaid Intern
-
NYC Man Ticketed for Not Riding in the Bike Lane by Jonathan Golob
RSS
Facebook
Twitter
Comments (39) RSS