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News & ArtsFriday, July 24, 2009
Homo R-71 Looks Doomed
Posted by Dominic Holden on Fri, Jul 24, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Sweet Jesus in heaven—the lying, sanctimonious, hypocritical, carpetbagging campaign to deny gay couples in Washington their partnership rights appears to be on the verge of failure. Pastor Gary Randall wrote this on the Faith and Freedom blog today:
R-71 petition signature gathering count is too close to call, so we are asking for your help in making one last push.We feel that by tomorrow morning we will have the 120,577 signatures required, however we also know that some will be invalidated for various reasons. We do not have an adequate cushion of signatures.
We will be turning in the signatures tomorrow at 2 PM.
By "too close to call," Randall means that the referendum is screwed. The petition would likely need 150,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot, the elections division of the Secretary of State's Office said last week. There's no way they can gather 30,000 signatures in the next 25 hours and 30 minutes. If Referendum 71, which attempts to repeal Washington's domestic-partnership bill, only only turns in 120,577 signatures tomorrow, it's done.
Via Lurleen at Pam's House Blend.
4
Of course, that could be what they WANT you to think, Dominic. A second source for these numbers would be more reassuring.
You keep saying things like "doomed to fail," regarding this topic.
Perhaps, I'm being cynical, but that begins to sound like wishful thinking more than optimism?
When is this OFFICIALLY dead?
You keep saying things like "doomed to fail," regarding this topic.
Perhaps, I'm being cynical, but that begins to sound like wishful thinking more than optimism?
When is this OFFICIALLY dead?
5
It's not "likely need", it's "absolutely need". 25% is a rounding of the actual legitimate average rejection rate. If I were them, I'd take in all the signature sheets possible, walk in with a couple of boxes and say, "We have 119,000 signatures... sorry." and then walk out with the greatest data mine since Obama's e-mail list.
7
@4, it was dead before it started. They didn't have enough time or support to get it on the ballot. But that wasn't their purpose. It was to make money. Do you really think Tim Eyman believes in any of the horribly backward initiatives he pushes? No, he's just in it because it's easier than selling watches.
8
Family Policy Institute of Washington (the local Focus on the Family affiliate) just sent an email organizing people to collect signatures in the Seattle area today, tonight and tomorrow morning. Look sharp people! It's ain't over until Larry Stickney sings.
9
@7 An enterprising and crafty activist can take the mentality you describe and use it to their advantage.
The quick dismissal of these guys as snake-oil salesman is not a prudent way to regard them.
Still... here's hoping you're right.
The quick dismissal of these guys as snake-oil salesman is not a prudent way to regard them.
Still... here's hoping you're right.
11
Sweet FSM, Dom, are you TRYING to jinx this thing? ixnay on the oomedday until the proofed pudding has been tasted, their pitard has hoist and the fat wing-nut has sung!
16
Lurleen, any idea where these signature-gatherers will be? It would be a shame if people walked up to talk to them and monopolized their time by asking them for directions or something, keeping them from gathering their signatures.
19
@8: Get ERW on the case, if you can. They're probably going to call it a pro-gay measure or say it's for property taxes.
I must point out that by their own projections, they're pulling in under 4,500 signatures a day through people finally returning petitions and by my reckoning, they're likely to be all tapped out of potential signers. If you are pulling in 4,500 signatures on the day of the deadline, how are you going to make up the difference in one day?
Assuming they have just the right amount, they would need that 30,000, which figures to about 2,500 to 5,000 signatures an hour. Where are they going to stand to get 5,000 signatures an hour? They'd need 4 signatures every 3 seconds.
Then again, this could be a self-fulfilling narrative where they have more than they need and want to make it look like they "came from behind", but that makes it look like they have such sparse support that they can only barely deliver in days and days of work. Such a thing would be a PR disaster.
I must point out that by their own projections, they're pulling in under 4,500 signatures a day through people finally returning petitions and by my reckoning, they're likely to be all tapped out of potential signers. If you are pulling in 4,500 signatures on the day of the deadline, how are you going to make up the difference in one day?
Assuming they have just the right amount, they would need that 30,000, which figures to about 2,500 to 5,000 signatures an hour. Where are they going to stand to get 5,000 signatures an hour? They'd need 4 signatures every 3 seconds.
Then again, this could be a self-fulfilling narrative where they have more than they need and want to make it look like they "came from behind", but that makes it look like they have such sparse support that they can only barely deliver in days and days of work. Such a thing would be a PR disaster.
20
@16, I don't know where they are/will be. I presume it depends on who volunteers and where they want to collect.
Of course I think people should keep their eyes peeled, but I also assume this last-ditch effort will be a monumental bust because it's a beautiful friday afternoon on a vacation weekend for so many people. And anyone interested in collecting would have to already have petitions, or have to be willing to drive to Lynnwood to get some before striking out. How likely is that?
Of course I think people should keep their eyes peeled, but I also assume this last-ditch effort will be a monumental bust because it's a beautiful friday afternoon on a vacation weekend for so many people. And anyone interested in collecting would have to already have petitions, or have to be willing to drive to Lynnwood to get some before striking out. How likely is that?
21
Picking your brain here a second, Lurleen, but in my experience with college petitions, we typically would count a petition form as complete regardless of the number of signatures on it. By that I mean we wouldn't do a full count until we'd gotten them all in, and our estimate would just be number of petition forms times the number of signature lines.
In their 75,000 total and 8,000 a day estimation, what percentage of those forms do you think would likely be incomplete? I'm guessing that the advice in school of limiting the number of petition slots to under 30 to allow for sound estimation follows here, and we frequently had over half of those forms come in short by 40-50% (10-12 signatures on a 25 signature form), so do you think of the about 3,800 petition forms they'd received back, a majority of them were incomplete?
Another thing I learned was that in petitioning, you overstate your current signature count and overrepresent the interest by always making sure to keep two sheets running so it looks like you have more people showing up than the reality. The estimation process is complicit in this tactic.
I have so many questions about this since I'm thinking about a petition of my own.
In their 75,000 total and 8,000 a day estimation, what percentage of those forms do you think would likely be incomplete? I'm guessing that the advice in school of limiting the number of petition slots to under 30 to allow for sound estimation follows here, and we frequently had over half of those forms come in short by 40-50% (10-12 signatures on a 25 signature form), so do you think of the about 3,800 petition forms they'd received back, a majority of them were incomplete?
Another thing I learned was that in petitioning, you overstate your current signature count and overrepresent the interest by always making sure to keep two sheets running so it looks like you have more people showing up than the reality. The estimation process is complicit in this tactic.
I have so many questions about this since I'm thinking about a petition of my own.
22
Baroncat, the only way to know is if they turn in the petitions. They've had plenty of time to make a real signature count. My guess is that they have made a fairly accurate count because they've had plenty of time to do so. But that's just my wild guess - I have no inside information (I wish!).
23
check this out - hot off gary randall's presses:
We are receiving a number of emails asking where individuals can sign a petition.LOL!
Where to sign petitions:
You may do so at the Capitol steps tomorrow (Saturday) at 2 PM.
24
Prediction - they got 'em - by a sliver.
This last minute come from behind is media hype to look like the underdog in the morality crusade of the oppressed religion cults vs. the GLBT political machine, its minions and millions...... we know the rap.
ALL attention is on them, Decline to Sign is old and stale - if they have them, the sigs., they have upstaged the Fags for a week and will be the statewide political story for all of next week.
However, here is indeed a toast to the Goddesses that they are again full of polluted shit and bile and sour urine - and we are free from the burden of the must win Washington state fight back campaign.
Only time will tell ... and who is Lurleen? Good work dogging on these people for weeks....
This last minute come from behind is media hype to look like the underdog in the morality crusade of the oppressed religion cults vs. the GLBT political machine, its minions and millions...... we know the rap.
ALL attention is on them, Decline to Sign is old and stale - if they have them, the sigs., they have upstaged the Fags for a week and will be the statewide political story for all of next week.
However, here is indeed a toast to the Goddesses that they are again full of polluted shit and bile and sour urine - and we are free from the burden of the must win Washington state fight back campaign.
Only time will tell ... and who is Lurleen? Good work dogging on these people for weeks....
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