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Friday, July 17, 2009

City Poll: Prepare for Nickels Vs. Drago in General Election

Posted by Dominic Holden on Fri, Jul 17, 2009 at 11:24 AM

This poll is a million years old in blog land because King TV released it—egads!—last night. The general sentiment seems that it's great news for Mayor Greg Nickels. He's still in the lead with 26 percent support, up a hair from the last poll. Here's the rest of the pack:

The closest competition is Seattle City Councilmember Jan Drago with 14 percent, down one point. Former Seattle SuperSonic James Donaldson has 11 percent, down three points. T-Mobile executive Joe Mallahan and community organizer Mike McGinn are tied at eight percent.

An act of Allah, it would seem, is needed for someone other than Drago and Nickels to make it through the primary and onto the general-election ballot. Donaldson, the closest competitor to Drago, has raised some money but already spent it, so I wouldn't count on a big media blitz from him. And he's losing ground. On the other hand, Mallahan has raised a tub of dough, $298,585, according to his most recent report to the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission. Mallahan has spent only $17,110, leaving him a big wad to blow on television screens and direct mail in the next few weeks. Nonetheless, he'll need to double his numbers, mostly cultivating name recognition, and that will be tough this late in the game.

For Nickels, the lingering question is whether he can hold his lead in November. The voters will be younger and more progressive, which is good for Nickels; Drago's leading among conservative and Republican voters, who have a bigger role in the primary than the general election. What's bad for Nickels, however, is the possibility that support for all his challengers will coalesce around Drago—or whoever makes it to the general election (in one big-anti Nickels voting bloc)—and toss Nickels out of City Hall.

Comments (16) RSS

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At least Drago listens to people.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on July 17, 2009 at 11:32 AM

Nikkels can hold on, so long as the Seattle Times prints 5 stories a day convincing us that Light Rail is great and doesn't run over people.

But if reality leaks out...forgetdaboutit.

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe

on July 17, 2009 at 11:39 AM

@2 - light rail runs over fewer people than were hurt in car/ped crashes before it was put in.

But I'd think that would just be a chance for McGinn to point out how he successfully got light rail built instead of unneeded highways in the wetlands like Greg N wanted.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on July 17, 2009 at 11:56 AM

What's this talk that Jan Drago is more conservative than Nickels? She's more pro-transit than even Nickels is. (See: Monorail) So she ran a Hagen-Daz. Big deal.

Nickels and Drago are both pro-business, pro-development Democrats. The only thing I can think of where Drago is more conservative is the bag fee and even Jessie Israel, who is actively courting the environmental vote, is against that.

What gives?

Posted by Jane on July 17, 2009 at 11:59 AM

@ 4) Polls have found Drago leads in support among Republicans and Conservatives, probably because she's not Nickels, opposes the bag fee, and has been relatively conservative on the city council.

Posted by Dominic Holden on July 17, 2009 at 12:05 PM

Nickels is stuck in the mid-20's. Voters know him, and he ain't gonna change a lot of minds at this point. Whoever makes it through the Primary is likely to be our next Mayor.

Posted by Mr. X on July 17, 2009 at 12:12 PM

"An act of Allah, it would seem, is needed for someone other than Drago and Nickels to make it through the primary..."

Odd and omen-ish: Mallahan _/~ Allah man.

The gods must be crazy!

Posted by rob!

on July 17, 2009 at 12:53 PM

If you're transit oriented; and ya hate the tunnel, then Mike McGinn is the candidate for you.
www.mcginnformayor.com

Posted by liblad

on July 17, 2009 at 1:10 PM

Yuck!

Posted by Zander on July 17, 2009 at 1:15 PM

Seattle seriously needs good female/minority city leaders ASAP, but Mike McGinn is so much better than all of the other candidates on essentially every issue.

Why isn't Stephanie Pure running for city office? What has she been up to?

Posted by lizzie on July 17, 2009 at 1:19 PM

This poll does not say that, Dominic. Second place is up for grabs. There's a lot of campaigning left for everyone. Between the margin of error on this poll and the fact that they predict more than half of their sample to vote in the primary, the 6 point difference between Drago and Mallahan/McGinn is not that significant. Allah doesn't have to be involved.

Posted by Elliott on July 17, 2009 at 1:19 PM

Dominic @5: Now you've gone and spoiled your post by mentioning issues. You were supposed to stick to the ECB tradition of merely commenting on the horse race without giving anyone any reason to give a damn about where which candidate is in the polls, how much money they've raised, who has endorsed them, and which consultants they've hired. Stick to the horse race, Dominic, and leave the issues to be worked out by the readers.

Posted by kk in seattle on July 17, 2009 at 2:21 PM

No, it's the Stranger, they actually talk about the issues here.

Where are they on DADT, by the way?

Posted by Will in Seattle

on July 17, 2009 at 2:49 PM

@4: Drago herself admits she is running to the right of Nickels: http://publicola.net/?p=7173

Posted by Trevor on July 17, 2009 at 7:13 PM

Well then, even though I'm way far left of anything that could be labeled "conservative," it looks like I'll have to suck it up an vote for Drago in the November election. It is totally inconceivable that she will do a worse job than Nickels. How's that for damning someone with faint praise?

Posted by Mud Baby on July 18, 2009 at 2:15 PM

Thank you 11!Dominic chooses to twist info to fit his own BS agenda...and Drago is FAR from conservative...pragmatic, yep. Conservative...not so much.

Posted by julie russell

on July 20, 2009 at 5:58 PM