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Thursday, July 9, 2009

Politics Poll Shows Nickels Getting Creamed in Head-to-Head Matchups

Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Jul 9, 2009 at 12:14 PM

An upstart polling firm, True Blue Innovation, issued a poll yesterday that gauges support for mayoral candidates among likely voters in the primary election. Although Nickels takes a hefty lead in the primary, his support pales when support from the other seven candidates coalesces around one challenger to Nickels.

As a pack in the primary:

Greg Nickels: 18%
Jan Drago: 13%
Mike McGinn: 8%
James Donaldson: 8%
Joe Mallahan: 8%
Elizabeth Campbell: 3%
Kwame Garrett: 1%
Norman Sigler: 1%
Undecided: 40%

But when pitted head to head—as will happen after the top two candidates in the primary face off in the general election—Nickels gets creamed by any of the four candidates on his heels:

James Donaldson: 48%
Greg Nickels: 26%
Undecided: 26%

Drago: 43%
Nickels: 27%
Undecided: 30%

McGinn: 43%
Nickels: 24%
Undecided: 33%

Mallahan: 41%
Nickels: 23%
Undecided: 36%

Many voters are undecided, even for the primary next month. True Blue Innovation partner Bill Monto notes that more voters could favor Nickels in the November election, where Nickels will enjoy the name recognition of incumbency among less-frequent voters. "The mayor is going to surge up a little bit if he reminds them of things he’s done that they like," says Monto, who has worked on Congressional and initiative campaigns in Washington for the past decade. However, it would take huge surge from Nickels, grabbing most undecided voters, to win the election. "The mayor could be beat, but it's not a slam dunk," he says.

True Blue Innovation, which has been polling since last winter, randomly selected likely voters who participated in the 2005 or 2007 primary elections—analogous to this August's election. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

A brief primer on the mayoral candidates is over here.

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Comments (21) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment

does anyone have recommendations on where to go to educate myself on the candidates? I'm interested in their experience, their agendas, and where they stand on the issues.

Posted by happy renter on July 9, 2009 at 12:16 PM

to download the entire memo, go to www.trueblueinnovation.com

Posted by trueblue on July 9, 2009 at 12:19 PM

to download the entire memo, go to www.trueblueinnovation.wordpress.com

Posted by trueblue on July 9, 2009 at 12:22 PM

@1 - you mean today or last month's stands?

they keep changing them.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on July 9, 2009 at 12:26 PM

Well, I've been educated about at least one candidate. The mayor. I have never voted for him, I don't like what he's done to Seattle. I will never vote for him.

Posted by Vince on July 9, 2009 at 12:43 PM

It's time to start a Steinbrueck write in campaign during the primary. The choices we have are awful, and Nickels will only win because he's the best of the worst. IF he can even win. If not, we'll get one of these hacks who will no doubt make the city even worse. Peter is a man with vision and if called on will serve

write-in: Peter Steinbrueck for Mayor

Posted by whoknows on July 9, 2009 at 12:45 PM

Of the bat I would think only questioning people who voted in an off year primary is going to skew the results.

Posted by giffy on July 9, 2009 at 12:53 PM

Nickels' priorities are in the wrong place. (And Strangers, you broke your old links. The Slog post to which I linked contains a broken link. It should link to Josh Feit's 2005 "Zoning for Dollars" article.)

Posted by Phil M on July 9, 2009 at 1:01 PM

So, I know I'm not a particular fan of Nickels, but what do the the rest of these guys stand for?

The only one I know anything about is Joe Mallahan, and all I know is he spammed me: http://strand.livejournal.com/313710.htm…

Posted by B Strand

on July 9, 2009 at 1:16 PM

@7

Uh, this election is an off-year primary.

Posted by Your Name Hear on July 9, 2009 at 1:23 PM

@10, The primary is, but not the general. If the head to heads came from the same pool then they are somewhat less than useful.

Posted by giffy on July 9, 2009 at 1:31 PM

@11, the general election is November of this year. 2009 is, in fact, an off-year.

The problem here is that, while Nickels is hardly an inspiring choice, every single one of the other candidates has gone out of his or her way to prove that he or she is hopelessly unqualified to run a vacuum cleaner, let alone a big city. I thought Drago was promising, but her cynical attempt to jump on the Carrasco-salary-outrage bandwagon was pathetic; Donaldson is an idiot; Mallahan is a bullshitting bigot, and McGinn is soft in the head and doesn't know what office he's running for. These losers are almost as bad as the Council.

Posted by Fnarf

on July 9, 2009 at 1:54 PM

Not that this is smart... but people aren't happy with the Five Cent Piece, and whoever gets to run against him will become their hero by default.

It's too bad Dan didn't get his act together and run :P

Posted by Gomez

on July 9, 2009 at 2:17 PM

As always, those who are dissatisfied speak the loudest - first. But when Nickels begins to articulate what he has accomplished during his term, the polls will show, and he will win - in a landslide.

Posted by crazycatguy on July 9, 2009 at 3:33 PM

@12 - no, he's running on the issues that the voters - not your educated elites that follow politics, but the actual voters of this city - think the mayor has to deal with.

That said, it was nice sharing hot dogs and fried fish with Donaldson last night, even if I'm leaning towards McGinn in the primary. Lots of people decided to vote for James right there and then, and were taking pictures with him.

Posted by Will in Seattle

on July 9, 2009 at 3:58 PM

But when Nickels begins to articulate what he has accomplished during his term, the polls will show, and he will win - in a landslide.

No, Nickels will probably win because has more money, more deep pocketed special interests to speak on his behalf, and thus gets to reach more people more often. That's why he's the favorite to win, not so much because people buy him as a winner.

Posted by Gomez

on July 9, 2009 at 4:24 PM

Those general election matchups are utterly useless. Why'd they even bother?

Posted by lol on July 9, 2009 at 4:50 PM

@12 the off year is not the problem, the primary is. If they only polled people who voted in the last two off year primaries they are missing a huge part of the population that will vote this November, and probably voted the last two off year Novembers but not the primaries.

Also a good likely voter model takes into account a lot more than just the last two similar elections.

Posted by giffy on July 9, 2009 at 5:48 PM

Why didn't they compare him to the other four candidates who could make it through the primary? Not enough time and/or money, or do they have their own agendas?

Of all the candidates, my money is on Norman Sigler. Of course, he didn't make into their polls.

www.siglerforseattle.com

He makes a point to be around town at any public event (Fremont Solstice, Gay Pride, etc.) and it feels good to have a mayoral candidate who actually cares about the people of Seattle, not just the developers and millionaires.

Posted by BombasticMO