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News & ArtsThursday, July 2, 2009
News Down and Out In New York and Chicago and Los Angeles and Seattle and Austin and Madison and Kansas City and Philadelphia and...
Posted by Dan Savage on Thu, Jul 2, 2009 at 7:40 AM
The new jobs report is out and it's fugly:
Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June, driving the unemployment rate up to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, suggesting that the economy's road to recovery will be bumpy.The Labor Department report, released Thursday, showed that even as the recession flashes signs of easing, companies likely will want to keep a lid on costs and be wary of hiring until they feel certain the economy is on solid ground.
June's payroll reductions were deeper than the 363,000 that economists expected and average weekly earnings dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year.
This chart—from Calculated Risk, via Sullivan—is pretty damn scary:
1
With unemployment at the highest level since 1983 it is the perfect time to cut Obama's legs out from under him because he won't kiss Dan's ass...
2
LOL The last comment was funny. Dan it is nice to see that you think about things other than gay issues. The economy totally sucks maybe the housing market will conitnue to worsen until I can finally afford a place in Queen Anne.
3
We needed another FDR and got ourselves another Clinton. If this doesn't turn around quickly Obama's going to be a one term President.
5
It's not that scary. The chart makes it appear that the deeper the recession, the more abrupt the recovery is when it finally happens. The shallower recessions appear to recover much more slowly. At least, that's what the chart reflects.
6
Actually I don't find that chart all that scary. Notice how the shallow recession of 2001 went on and on and on and on, and the shallow recession of 1990 was the second longest, but the deep recessions had quick drops and fast recoveries. We didn't fall very fast at first, but we have lately, and I think that bodes well for a "steep recovery."
Also, I feel like the constant headlines might actually wake some people up. We need to start saving, stop living beyond our means, stop assuming that we'll all live exactly like our parents (same job, little or no education, housewife, etc.), and get prices in line with what people can actually afford. We ALSO need to reform healthcare and energy policy. The worse it gets, the easier it is to persuade people that individual-level and system-wide changes are necessary for recovery.
I absolutely feel terrible for everyone who's hurting because of the recession, but the entire global economy was way out of whack just a few months ago. I do hope the government works to protect those who need it most in times like this, and communities band together to help each other (btw, there are lots of food/clothing drives going on everywhere I've been lately...with coupons, a discount card, and a closet cleaning you could really help someone out at little to no cost to yourself).
Also, I feel like the constant headlines might actually wake some people up. We need to start saving, stop living beyond our means, stop assuming that we'll all live exactly like our parents (same job, little or no education, housewife, etc.), and get prices in line with what people can actually afford. We ALSO need to reform healthcare and energy policy. The worse it gets, the easier it is to persuade people that individual-level and system-wide changes are necessary for recovery.
I absolutely feel terrible for everyone who's hurting because of the recession, but the entire global economy was way out of whack just a few months ago. I do hope the government works to protect those who need it most in times like this, and communities band together to help each other (btw, there are lots of food/clothing drives going on everywhere I've been lately...with coupons, a discount card, and a closet cleaning you could really help someone out at little to no cost to yourself).
9
@6: This chart is missing the great depression, which was both deep and long-lasting. It's a pretty scary one. Of course, we've also not dropped off nearly as fast as during the great depression, so who knows what will end up happening (the whole point of the article linked to).
10
Maybe you missed this?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con…
Obama and the Dems have no jobs plan. The federal stimulus just backfilled suicidal budget cuts at the state level, and next year will be all about... more budget cuts. Expect double-digit unemployment for at least 5 years, double in the African American and latino communities.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con…
Obama and the Dems have no jobs plan. The federal stimulus just backfilled suicidal budget cuts at the state level, and next year will be all about... more budget cuts. Expect double-digit unemployment for at least 5 years, double in the African American and latino communities.
11
@9, the Great Depression had a lot of precursors that are not present today. Is it possible that we're entering another major depression? Sure, that's always a possibility. I'm sure that's how people felt in 1948, since so many people so clearly remembered the Great Depression. But we're already seeing a slowing of economic decline, a bottoming of stock values, etc. Job losses continue but not at the same rate. We're still headed down, but not as fast. To me, this is more like 1981 (possibly deeper, but possibly not since the chart registers change from FULL employment, which we were below in the late 90's and not in the late 70's), but we have the opportunity to actually make the needed structural changes today that we did not make in 1981. Remember that, while weak and getting weaker by the minute, we have a small social safety net in place today that was totally absent during the Great Depression...which is probably one among other reasons why it's not useful as a baseline for the chart.
Now, I could do some rather fancy suppositioning here and talk about how the safety net might be masking something bigger or discuss W shaped recoveries, but we have enough people talking about that already. The bottom line is that over 90% of Americans are still employed and 80-85% are fully employed. Incomes are FINALLY rising slightly (which they did not do during the mid-2000's "boom"). People are starting to save money. Banks are lending money (slowly, reluctantly) to those worthy of it instead of anyone who walks through the door. People are getting the hint that our current energy structure is finite and needs a replacement, fast. We are working (slowly, reluctantly) to solving our problems.
It's bad, but not terrifying. Help your neighbors and lobby for the RIGHT kind of fixes. Politics could fuck up the whole lot, but we might also come out of this stronger.
More...
Now, I could do some rather fancy suppositioning here and talk about how the safety net might be masking something bigger or discuss W shaped recoveries, but we have enough people talking about that already. The bottom line is that over 90% of Americans are still employed and 80-85% are fully employed. Incomes are FINALLY rising slightly (which they did not do during the mid-2000's "boom"). People are starting to save money. Banks are lending money (slowly, reluctantly) to those worthy of it instead of anyone who walks through the door. People are getting the hint that our current energy structure is finite and needs a replacement, fast. We are working (slowly, reluctantly) to solving our problems.
It's bad, but not terrifying. Help your neighbors and lobby for the RIGHT kind of fixes. Politics could fuck up the whole lot, but we might also come out of this stronger.
12
The markets aren't interpreting it the way you said in the article.
From their viewpoint, this is still a bottoming process and they originally expected even more severe job cuts this month.
So they see it as good news.
Thanks for playing. My Ford and other key stocks have gone up about 100 percent thanks to President Obama's wise actions. If you were smart you would have maxed out your 401(k) and investing in the second quarter of this year too.
You can still participate cause the stock prices are only going UP from here (in general). Stick to low-cost mutual funds of dividend-yielding stocks (half of all earnings from stocks are dividends, never forget that).
From their viewpoint, this is still a bottoming process and they originally expected even more severe job cuts this month.
So they see it as good news.
Thanks for playing. My Ford and other key stocks have gone up about 100 percent thanks to President Obama's wise actions. If you were smart you would have maxed out your 401(k) and investing in the second quarter of this year too.
You can still participate cause the stock prices are only going UP from here (in general). Stick to low-cost mutual funds of dividend-yielding stocks (half of all earnings from stocks are dividends, never forget that).
13
oh, and as to housing - if you were going to buy a house here in this market, do so before the end of this year. But if you're speculating - you should never do that with houses.
14
@5:
You might also note on the chart, that even when there's been a steep recovery it still takes at least 12 (and often more like 18 - 24) months to just get back to baseline after hitting rock bottom. That seems to foretell of depressed employment numbers well into 2011, even if things turn around completely tomorrow. (gulp!)
You might also note on the chart, that even when there's been a steep recovery it still takes at least 12 (and often more like 18 - 24) months to just get back to baseline after hitting rock bottom. That seems to foretell of depressed employment numbers well into 2011, even if things turn around completely tomorrow. (gulp!)
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