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News & ArtsTuesday, June 16, 2009
International What Next?
Posted by Eli Sanders on Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 8:42 AM
It's become harder to figure out what's happening in Iran today because of the government's threat to arrest any members of the media who venture into the streets. But reading the unsentimental predictions of American experts on the country is sobering:
“The regime will quell the discontent,” [Richard] Bulliet, a professor of history at Columbia’s Middle East Institute, said by phone today from New York. “It will be dampened down and the U.S. and foreign governments will have to resign themselves to dealing with the Ahmadinejad regime.”
And why wouldn't the Ahmadinejad regime do this? The leaders of Iran are sitting atop one the largest oil-producing countries in the world, have developed a mechanism for controlling Iranian society that they find comfortable, and have at their disposal all kinds of military and paramilitary forces to push back against the current rebellion in the streets. Video like this is disgusting, but it reminds just how far the Iranian government is willing to go to protect itself:
Which forces the question: How far are the protesters really willing to go?
We'll find out today, but in the meantime it's hard to watch videos like the above and not end up asking oneself: How far would I really be willing to go?
1
Fuckity fuck. I'm pretty sure with that in the offing I'd be willing to go no further than maybe Fife.
2
we've already shown how far we are willing to go. in 2000/2001, we just took it, even though it was bullshit.
and ultimately, the iranians are going to have to take it, too. especially if the government brings in hezbollah to add to the cops, the baseej, and the military.
and ultimately, the iranians are going to have to take it, too. especially if the government brings in hezbollah to add to the cops, the baseej, and the military.
3
You have to remember what happened in '79, and what's been happening since. 1979 was NOT an Islamist, conservative religious revolution; it was a secular, leftist, student one. The Ayatollah Khomeini was invited in as a symbol of the resistance, not as leader. But in the chaos that followed, the religious leaders coopted the revolution and turned it into an Islamist one. This tension has never entirely gone away, and we're seeing it more explicitly now. But the Revolutionary Guard and the street militias have thirty years of experience at controlling this sort of thing. Western sources like to point out that "it doesn't really matter", since whichever regime is in power serves at the pleasure of the mullahs; but it works the other way too.
4
Wait. It's not a post about how gays are being thrown under the bus by the Democrats. We can't have that.
Please delete this post and concentrate on the one and only thing in the world that matters: Pissy queens having spazzy fits over their lack of civil rights.
Please delete this post and concentrate on the one and only thing in the world that matters: Pissy queens having spazzy fits over their lack of civil rights.
6
The whole world is seeing the atrocities the regime is committing against the Iranian people. Technology is making a reporter out of every ordinary citizen and that's why the regime will fall. What worries me is if the regime starts going after the technology that unmasks their viciousness. Today twitter will be down for a short period and that's troubling, who knows what the regime will do during that time.
7
@ 2 - I thought the same thing. The protesters didn't even force the enforcement machine to show any other cards in its hand.
8
Fuck. It really hurts to see that (I'm in a coffee shop and was yelling stop at my computer monitor).
It also makes me feel too spoiled, secure and slightly helpless. Maybe it's a stupid American response to have, but is there anything we can do to help?
While it's clearly not our battle, this just hurts my soul a little.
It also makes me feel too spoiled, secure and slightly helpless. Maybe it's a stupid American response to have, but is there anything we can do to help?
While it's clearly not our battle, this just hurts my soul a little.
9
I think anyone who claims to know what's going to happen is kidding themselves. These things take on a life of their own and they can blow up or smolder out without warning. Remember, in 1988 the USSR looked as strong as ever, and even in the advanced stages of the 1979 revolution the CIA was assuring the president that there was no threat of revolution against the Shah.
Also remember that it isn't just students vs. the government. There are many big fish in the army and government sympathetic to the protesters, looking to capitalize on the weakness of Khamenei.
I think full blown revolution is still unlikely, but anything can happen.
Also remember that it isn't just students vs. the government. There are many big fish in the army and government sympathetic to the protesters, looking to capitalize on the weakness of Khamenei.
I think full blown revolution is still unlikely, but anything can happen.
10
How far are they willing to go?
Unless they're willing to do what the original revolutionaries did and take it to the literal doors of the ruling elites, not far enough.
Unless they're willing to do what the original revolutionaries did and take it to the literal doors of the ruling elites, not far enough.
14
I just reset my twitter account to +3:30 GMT Tehran time to make it harder for Iran to block twitter.
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