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News & ArtsTuesday, May 19, 2009
Economy Did We Just Hit the Washington Bottom?
Posted by Eli Sanders on Tue, May 19, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Already made the joke, don't worry. Now here's the latest in the genre:
Washington State's unemployment rate held steady in April, the first time in more than a year that the jobless rate hasn't risen.The statewide seasonally adjusted jobless rate was 9.1 percent last month, the same as March's revised figure, the state Employment Security Department reported this morning.
But it's too soon to say whether the flat rate represents the peak of Washington's economic woes, or merely a pause on the way to even greater pain.
1
Maybe.
Depends on how soon Boeing stops whining about the new reality and starts building high-speed passenger rail and cranking out stuff.
And MSFT stops trying to fight the EU and starts trying to actually make something that WORKS BETTER instead of SUCKS MORE.
That said, our local economy won't really kick in until shipping trade through our local ports really takes off - right now we're doing fine thanks to LA messing up and Mexican cruise ships going to Alaska, but that can't last forever.
Depends on how soon Boeing stops whining about the new reality and starts building high-speed passenger rail and cranking out stuff.
And MSFT stops trying to fight the EU and starts trying to actually make something that WORKS BETTER instead of SUCKS MORE.
That said, our local economy won't really kick in until shipping trade through our local ports really takes off - right now we're doing fine thanks to LA messing up and Mexican cruise ships going to Alaska, but that can't last forever.
2
Seasonal hiring is coming up fast, so that'll give us a boost for May and June.
Shipping, which @1 mentions, is not really going to be full-on hiring most required positions until the end of the summer in advance of the holiday season and the movement of shipping jobs from Tacoma and Long Beach. Which is fine, since we don't want to have an improvement followed by stabilization-- a second peak is more impressive.
Shipping, which @1 mentions, is not really going to be full-on hiring most required positions until the end of the summer in advance of the holiday season and the movement of shipping jobs from Tacoma and Long Beach. Which is fine, since we don't want to have an improvement followed by stabilization-- a second peak is more impressive.
3
Will, I don't see Boeing whining about anything because right now there's still next to no demand for high speed rail cars in this country. With Obama's commitment to some partial funding of HSR corridors this might change, but it hasn't yet. California is as close to anywhere to having a new HSR system and it's years away from ordering even one train.
As for Microsoft, it's spending a lot of time and money complying with the (IMO) excessive demands of EU regulators. Its new operating system (Windows 7) is reportedly much better than Vista. Microsoft's real problem is the bad economy, which is entirely outside its control. It's still better positioned to rebound when things get going again.
As for Microsoft, it's spending a lot of time and money complying with the (IMO) excessive demands of EU regulators. Its new operating system (Windows 7) is reportedly much better than Vista. Microsoft's real problem is the bad economy, which is entirely outside its control. It's still better positioned to rebound when things get going again.
5
Or this could be the result of every industry already cutting back as much as possible. I sit on my ass surfing for jobs all day, but my friends who are still working are at 20% more hours with pay cuts / freezes.
6
Seattle is a city built on mud.
To mud, it will return.
Salish lodges become the new condos.
Salmon bake is the new latte.
The little racer back dress is traded for a wooden mask.
7
@5 - try cold calling or networking - literally ask your friends and relatives who might be hiring - works better.
8
Umm, at the very worst of the Great Depression I (this being The Great Depression II), wasn't unemployment 25%? I think this is what's called the "dead cat bounce".
9
@8 - yes, but that measurement was more like today's "U6" measurement (that includes people who are "underemployed" - working less hours and/or for less pay than they would like).
The measurement in the news is mostly "U3" (which doesn't count under-employment or people who simply give up). So U3 is closing in on 10% nationwide, but U6 is already at somewhere like 16-18%.
So, measuring apples-to-apples, this will be nearly as bad as the Great Depression employment-wise. That said, I don't think this is a bounce, and look for the numbers to revised upward in a couple of weeks - would not surprise me for WA unemployment to hit 10% by the end of this year and 11% next year before truly bottoming out. Takes a while for unemployment to ripple through the various supplier businesses downstream from the big guys.
At least we're not repeating the mistakes that made the last massive recession turn into the Depression (tightening money supply, not having a safety net, etc).
The measurement in the news is mostly "U3" (which doesn't count under-employment or people who simply give up). So U3 is closing in on 10% nationwide, but U6 is already at somewhere like 16-18%.
So, measuring apples-to-apples, this will be nearly as bad as the Great Depression employment-wise. That said, I don't think this is a bounce, and look for the numbers to revised upward in a couple of weeks - would not surprise me for WA unemployment to hit 10% by the end of this year and 11% next year before truly bottoming out. Takes a while for unemployment to ripple through the various supplier businesses downstream from the big guys.
At least we're not repeating the mistakes that made the last massive recession turn into the Depression (tightening money supply, not having a safety net, etc).
10
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/speci…
After reviewing the stress test map, 9.1 percent doesn't look so bad. I would really like to believe that the numbers are stabilizing, but in comparison to other states, it's seems possible that it could get much worse.
After reviewing the stress test map, 9.1 percent doesn't look so bad. I would really like to believe that the numbers are stabilizing, but in comparison to other states, it's seems possible that it could get much worse.
11
Whatever you do, don't check out the ARRA at UW page for stimulus grant jobs that only Americans can apply for.
It's on Facebook.
It's on Facebook.
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