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News & ArtsThursday, April 30, 2009
Science Don't Panic
Posted by Jonathan Golob on Thu, Apr 30, 2009 at 9:19 AM
Question: This is a bunch of bullshit, right? I mean, thirty thousand people die each year from regular old flu. What's this, a few hundred? In Mexico! You are panicy asshole for even bringing this up.
Answer: I find this to be one of the more foolish salves people are currently trotting out. Yes, a regular year's influenza kills about thirty thousand people—mostly older or ill people ready to die from just about anything. It's like saying "people die of old age all the time. What's the deal with this death thing?"
This flu seems to be unusually severe (at least in pockets) for people in their twenties and thirties, thanks to an overreaction by the immune system. It's not the number of deaths—and this is probably only getting started as far as the number of infected people—it's the age and overall health of those sickened and dying.
Question: Holy shit! So we're all going to die!
Answer: Nope. Even at worst, only a small percentage of people infected die. It's just more deadly for young and healthy people than a typical flu. In fact, we have no clue if or how severe the eventual illness will be.
For a "we're all going to die" scenario, you need to have something like Small Pox.
Question: Well, why are they starting to close schools then?
Answer: Because kids are second only to mosquitoes as vectors for disease transmission. The three cases in Seattle basically form the public health pieta of pandemics: a school aged kid, a parent aged adult and a primary care doctor.
The goal here is to slow the spread of the illness, so that the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed. This is why influenza tends to outbreak (among other factors) when school is in session. Close schools, and you slow the spread.
Question: Well, what should I do?
Answer: Have enough food, books, movies and other stuff that you can sit at home for a few days, if all public gatherings are prohibited. (This is a big if. It probably won't happen. Why not be prepared. If you live on a fault line, you should have this for an earthquake anyways.)
Wash your hands like a crazy person. When you come home, before you eat, or before you touch your face, a good handwashing that takes a minute or so, with soap and water.
Indoors, in confined spaces, try to keep about three feet away from other people. Sit every other seat in theaters, auditoriums, buses or conference rooms.
And don't panic.
1
I'm afraid this one will turn out to be mild and people won't take h5n1 seriously when (yes when) it breaks out. That little bastard is something to be scared of; we're talking ~60% mortality.
2
Please, Jonathan. "To break out," not "to outbreak." Thank you.
Otherwise, I very much appreciate the helpful info. Good job.
Otherwise, I very much appreciate the helpful info. Good job.
3
Can you please respond to the causes of pig and bird flu, and provide the scientifically best way to prevent outbreaks in the future?
It's clearly the harvesting of pig and bird carcasses for food by corpse-eaters that is causing this and other severe influenza outbreaks. The only scientific way to stop these outbreaks is for these people to stop eating bird and pig carcasses. Correct, Science? Yes/no?
It's clearly the harvesting of pig and bird carcasses for food by corpse-eaters that is causing this and other severe influenza outbreaks. The only scientific way to stop these outbreaks is for these people to stop eating bird and pig carcasses. Correct, Science? Yes/no?
5
"Because kids are second only to mosquitoes as vectors for disease transmission."
If I'm not mistaken, this is the reason why regular influenza is so much more prevalent during the winter than the summer, correct? That kids go to school and end up picking up every virus, bacteria, germ, and fungus possible and then spread it around like mad?
If I'm not mistaken, this is the reason why regular influenza is so much more prevalent during the winter than the summer, correct? That kids go to school and end up picking up every virus, bacteria, germ, and fungus possible and then spread it around like mad?
6
Since it's already here in WA, anyway, there's no point canceling a Mexican family vacation in a few weeks, right?
7
At last my anti-social tendencies make me look smart and careful.
And Doc, please get back to the podcasts!
And Doc, please get back to the podcasts!
8
I for one will start eating vegans who don't wash their vegetables in Clorox or Sal Suds. And start reading James Michener, Michael Chabon, Herman Melville and David Foster Wallace.
9
@3: From the CDC's site:
Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.
10
Mr Golob, where have you been!? 3 Makes some great questions, I would like to know the answers. Plus I would also like to know what do you think about a possible closing of the border with Mexico? Do you believe this will prevent further spreading? Are we too late in doing this? And I also heard that this all started with a 4 year old coming into contact with some pigs in the Mexican state of Veracroz, would like to know more of this so that as 3 points out we can scientifically prevent future outbreaks.
11
@3: Will you stop it please? You make vegetarians look like idiots. Factory farming is unhealthy for the planet, yes, but there is no need for people to stop eating meat completely. What's needed is for people to eat less meat and meat from healthier sources. You see how that is a more rational and realistic argument? Your religious zealotry does nothing for the animals you supposedly care about.
12
@9 - SIN's point is that, much like the drug trade, our appetite for meat drives the unsafe factory farming that leads to gross shit like mad cow and, possibly, swine flu.
NOT that the act of eating the meat itself is dangerous.
That said, I agree with @11.
NOT that the act of eating the meat itself is dangerous.
That said, I agree with @11.
13
Sam #9, I'm talking about the origins of the disease, not its transmission. Bird and pig flu originate from the harvesting and slaughter practices of animals for consumption by some humans with bizarre, ultra-conservative eating habits.
15
@13 shush now. other people can make your arguments for you without sounding hysterical and wing-nutty.
16
The Southern Hemisphere is what we want to watch out for. It's coming into flu season, and if we see a more virulent outbreak, it's likely to be there.
The nightmare scenario would see some viral reassortment during the Southern flu season followed by infection by resistant strains next fall here during our flu season.
The nightmare scenario would see some viral reassortment during the Southern flu season followed by infection by resistant strains next fall here during our flu season.
18
Jonathon,
So this current strain of flu seems like it harms healthy adults more than other strains. What about children? I have a five month old at home; is this flu more dangerous to her than other flus?
I teach afterschool programs at a number of different schools and I've made it a rule to wash my hands before coming home to my baby. I'm one of those people who believes that being overly hygenic can lead to asthma and other allergies, but in this case I'm going to be vigilant.
Still, it's worth bearing in mind that you are far more likely to die in a traffic accident than from H1N1.
Thanks.
So this current strain of flu seems like it harms healthy adults more than other strains. What about children? I have a five month old at home; is this flu more dangerous to her than other flus?
I teach afterschool programs at a number of different schools and I've made it a rule to wash my hands before coming home to my baby. I'm one of those people who believes that being overly hygenic can lead to asthma and other allergies, but in this case I'm going to be vigilant.
Still, it's worth bearing in mind that you are far more likely to die in a traffic accident than from H1N1.
Thanks.
19
Great. And "Take your disgusting, disease-ridden child to work where they can wipe their snotty hands on everything day" was last week.
What's the incubation period on this? And when will people finally learn that if I wanted to be around children I would either have children or hang out in playgrounds and offer them candy?
What's the incubation period on this? And when will people finally learn that if I wanted to be around children I would either have children or hang out in playgrounds and offer them candy?
20
Joe Biden advises us to not go on planes or subways. I bet Obama's getting that "Biden, you idiot" look on his face right about now.
21
Yes, Loveschild, we should close the Mexican border. Cases are in Canada too, so we should also close the Canadian border. Since it is already in the US, then we should also close the borders of Idaho and Oregon. In fact, we should just close the airport to any flights coming from any city that has had cases. Also, since we have cases right here in town, you should just not leave the house at all.
22
@18
I'm going to say that infats are in some ways would exhibit more severe forms of the flu. They have not been exposed to certain pathogens and have not built up systematic immune responses like adults do. Although, this is not to say adults are not susceptible to get severely ill either.
I work at a school as well, which serves k-12, and I find the older kids (middle school and high school students) to be a bit more resilient to illnesses (although they all have such poor hygiene... oy!).
I'm going to say that infats are in some ways would exhibit more severe forms of the flu. They have not been exposed to certain pathogens and have not built up systematic immune responses like adults do. Although, this is not to say adults are not susceptible to get severely ill either.
I work at a school as well, which serves k-12, and I find the older kids (middle school and high school students) to be a bit more resilient to illnesses (although they all have such poor hygiene... oy!).
23
@20: I don't think it was wrong of Biden to say that. It seems pretty practical advice to me when there's an outbreak of swine flu and you're most likely to get this in common public places and during transit (close proximity to people, high people traffic, etc)
24
Also, the purpose is to limit contact with other people. Ezra Klein explains why using or transportation or flying may help spread the flu:
That's the problem with flu pandemics. They're dependent on collective action. An individual who takes non-essential plane flights -- even to Mexico, cause tickets are now cheap, and really, what are the chances? -- is making a rational decision based on individual probabilities. But if everyone does that, then we're hurtling towards a full-blown pandemic.
25
"This flu seems to be unusually severe (at least in pockets) for people in their twenties and thirties, thanks to an overreaction by the immune system."
Could you give a reference for this bit of information??
I've come across multiple references for this when referring to the 1918 pandemic, but none in reference to this most recent influenza pandemic.
"according to Andrew Pekosz, Ph.D, associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, it doesn't look like H1N1 swine flu is causing cytokine storms in its victims."
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/04/28/swi…
Could you give a reference for this bit of information??
I've come across multiple references for this when referring to the 1918 pandemic, but none in reference to this most recent influenza pandemic.
"according to Andrew Pekosz, Ph.D, associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, it doesn't look like H1N1 swine flu is causing cytokine storms in its victims."
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/04/28/swi…
26
Wasting your time, really.
Just wash your hands with hot water and non-antibiotic (e.g. Ivory, Dove) soap.
That has the highest impact of all the measures you mentioned.
You should already be using kleenex or a sleeve when you sneeze.
Just wash your hands with hot water and non-antibiotic (e.g. Ivory, Dove) soap.
That has the highest impact of all the measures you mentioned.
You should already be using kleenex or a sleeve when you sneeze.
27
I think it's a bit irresponsible of Biden to be telling people to not fly or not take subways. The CDC has already issued what precautions it thinks are necessary (and Biden went beyond them). It needs to strike the balance between preventing the spread of the disease and not overreacting and negatively impacting the economy/causing unnecessary fear.
It's obviously a difficult job to look in a crystal ball and try to predict how severe this thing is/could be -- but it's not the job of the VP to be doing so. It's fine if you personally want to avoid public transit/flying, that's obviously safer than not (it's likely unnecessary, but no one can say definitely). But, the VP shouldn't go around giving different advice than the CDC...
It's obviously a difficult job to look in a crystal ball and try to predict how severe this thing is/could be -- but it's not the job of the VP to be doing so. It's fine if you personally want to avoid public transit/flying, that's obviously safer than not (it's likely unnecessary, but no one can say definitely). But, the VP shouldn't go around giving different advice than the CDC...
28
Mr. Golob, are you single?
I'm all swoony over your use of "pieta" in a sentence that has nothing to do with religion. Nerdy scientists can be hot, too.
I'm all swoony over your use of "pieta" in a sentence that has nothing to do with religion. Nerdy scientists can be hot, too.
29
But pieta doesn't make ANY SENSE. I assume the intended meaning was "trinity." The pieta is a representation of Mary mourning Jesus. Ain't got nothin' to do with three interrelated things.
30
Thanks, but if I wanted to eat pork-flavoured cardboard, I'd just rub cooked bacon on a box. So basically, what the WHO is saying is that we really shouldn't be eating pork unless we're doing something like stewing/bacon frying. If that actually is a potential disease vector, it'd be silly to be packaging/shipping/consuming it otherwise - people would still be handling the raw pork in order to cook it.
My guess, though, is that they don't think it's actually any kind of risk and they're just being cautious.
Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.
Thanks, but if I wanted to eat pork-flavoured cardboard, I'd just rub cooked bacon on a box. So basically, what the WHO is saying is that we really shouldn't be eating pork unless we're doing something like stewing/bacon frying. If that actually is a potential disease vector, it'd be silly to be packaging/shipping/consuming it otherwise - people would still be handling the raw pork in order to cook it.
My guess, though, is that they don't think it's actually any kind of risk and they're just being cautious.
31
I'm taking this as yet another reason not to breed. Children are disease ridden parasites that should be stopped at all costs.
32
@31, if everyone just stopped breeding for the next century or so, it would solve virtually every problem on Earth.
33
I guess he couldn't find a reference to his first question? If that's the case what was he basing his response on?
35
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/l…
scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.
In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.
----------------
scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.
In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.
----------------
38
Jonathan, any chance that the swine flu has been around in the general population for a while? There does seem to be some randomness as to where it's showing up. Is it possible that many people have been infected for months, but just blew it off as a regular flu bug, and the only difference now is heightened awareness?
39
Okay Dr. Golob, thank God you're on SLOG!
A blogger on the Huff post wrote:
"In the 1918-1919 pandemic, according to the CDC, the first mild wave started in March and swept through the United States, Europe, and Asia. A second much deadlier wave spread from September to November 1918 . And a third severe and lethal wave arrived in early 1919."
So how do we know if this will/won't mutate into a second or third "deadly" or "lethal" wave? Do people who are infected in the first or mild wave have any immunity should subsequent waves appear? Weren't there vaccines in 1918 and 1919?
A blogger on the Huff post wrote:
"In the 1918-1919 pandemic, according to the CDC, the first mild wave started in March and swept through the United States, Europe, and Asia. A second much deadlier wave spread from September to November 1918 . And a third severe and lethal wave arrived in early 1919."
So how do we know if this will/won't mutate into a second or third "deadly" or "lethal" wave? Do people who are infected in the first or mild wave have any immunity should subsequent waves appear? Weren't there vaccines in 1918 and 1919?
40
Greg: Yes! It's about proper usage, not religion. I'm an agnostic heathen and I know what the dang pieta is. (I believe it's a with an acute accent, btw, but I can't be bothered to look up the key combo.)
41
And I need to second @38. There has been a strong respiratory infection going around my peeps for at least a month. I started to get the sore throat & cough on 4/18, with a very brief fever. Everyone I know is recovered absent a little enduring cough. Never in a million years would I have gone to a doctor for those symptoms, absent something additional.
43
"kids are second only to mosquitoes as disease vectors" is my new favorite phrase, and I am totally stealing it. I've been using "walking Petri dishes" for years, but that's even better.
45
"Because kids are second only to mosquitoes as vectors for disease transmission."
Doctor, where do bath house faggots fall on the Vector of Disease Scale? (aka VDs)
Doctor, where do bath house faggots fall on the Vector of Disease Scale? (aka VDs)
46
Hi @44: You know I'm an MD/PhD, right? Passed USMLE step 1 so far. I'm a real doctor now. I'll be an MD soon enough. Compared to the PhD, med school was like going back to middle school. Didn't even have to change rooms between classes.
47
@46: Yeah, I heard about that, mazeltov! Um, is there any way you could answer my question (#18)? Are children more at risk from swine flu than from other flus, or is it only us healthy adults? Thanks!
49
@46
Jonathan, honey- you've got to learn to ignore the trolls. Otherwise you'll never last in this gig.
Jonathan, honey- you've got to learn to ignore the trolls. Otherwise you'll never last in this gig.
51
You're an idiot. Calm down. Everything is fine, champ. I know you feel scared right now, but it's all going to be okay. You guys destroyed your credibility after that absurd article about bird flu a few years ago.
Get a fucking grip.
Get a fucking grip.
52
@51
"You guys"?
You do realize that all articles on the internet aren't written by the same small organization, right?
"You guys"?
You do realize that all articles on the internet aren't written by the same small organization, right?
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