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News & ArtsWednesday, April 29, 2009
News It's (Probably) Here
Posted by Paul Constant on Wed, Apr 29, 2009 at 9:50 PM
3 reported cases of swine flu in Seattle, three elsewhere in Washington state.
"Public health officials reported six probable cases of swine flu at a hastily called news conference Wednesday night, the first such cases to be reported within the state."
2
I SWEAR TO GOD IT WASN'T ME.
Petting your friendly neighborhood baconcat is NOT a risk, I repeat, NOT a risk!
Petting your friendly neighborhood baconcat is NOT a risk, I repeat, NOT a risk!
4
This is kind of good news. Like Chicken Pox it's better to get this over early. If the infection is exponential it will burn through the population in a few weeks. This is important because it will leave people with antibodies for this new strain. The flu will go on to circle the world and "drift" that is mutate into other forms that may be nastier. Seattleites will have some immunity when it returns in the fall/winter.
I read John Barry's "The Great Influenza" and I am basing my semi informed ideas on that.
I read John Barry's "The Great Influenza" and I am basing my semi informed ideas on that.
5
@4 Yeah, I hope so. I'm looking forward to taking advantage of the outbreak to get some extra exercise walking to work. U District-Downtown express buses are not where I want to be for the time being.
6
Nice thing about it being here is that people will pay close attention to symptoms, get to the doctor faster and get the appropriate help/medication. A little anxiety is good.
7
@4: One of the doctors I work for said the same thing. The 1918 epidemic came in spring, died out in summer, but came back with a vengeance in the fall. Those who got the relatively weaker strain early had developed an immunity that kept them alive when the more powerful variety arrived later.
8
@4 - That assumption is that this variant would mutate into something more lethal - that is yet to be proven in this case. You need to wait until a better picture of this evolves to make that claim.
It would be equally likely at this point to assume that this particular variant would mutate into a more benign variant over time. (And I read the same book, btw, very informative.)
It would be equally likely at this point to assume that this particular variant would mutate into a more benign variant over time. (And I read the same book, btw, very informative.)
11
I don't have health insurance and seeing a doctor is incredibly expensive. How dangerous is this?
13
see a doc-what are you going to pay for? A exam, possible testing and antibiotics.
Don't go to the doc, and the possibility, and who knows how remote it is, you get hospitalized? Mucho dinero there.
Don't go to the doc, and the possibility, and who knows how remote it is, you get hospitalized? Mucho dinero there.
15
It now appears that 1 in 12 are dying from this in Mexico, and that kid in TX was *hospitalized* for two weeks before dying. Meaning, we won't know the lethality here in the US for a couple of weeks at best, but it's probably not going to be as low as other flus. And it's highly contagious.
It's never the right time to panic, but it's getting pretty close to "pull your kids from school and stay home from work" time.
It's never the right time to panic, but it's getting pretty close to "pull your kids from school and stay home from work" time.
20
I admit, I'm honestly freaked out. I have a parent who is disabled. She spends an inordinate amount of time in the hospital and gets pneumonia at least once a year. If she gets this, she won't survive. If I get it...I'm uninsured.
I saw a thing earlier that said that King County had anti-viral therapy for a quarter of its inhabitants. D'you suppose they'll offer it to us uninsured folks?
I saw a thing earlier that said that King County had anti-viral therapy for a quarter of its inhabitants. D'you suppose they'll offer it to us uninsured folks?
21
I heard the flu was from outer space, but I also saw this reliable looking website that it was created by corporate business interests controlled by the US government to eliminate insurrectionists that were planning to secede Texas from the United States.
True/false?
True/false?
23
It now appears that 1 in 12 are dying from this in Mexico
Honestly, we don't know. If you deaths / confirmed cases (7/26) it's a 26% death rate. If you go by suspected deaths + deaths / confirmed cases + estimated suspected cases in the hospital (77/2000) you're down to 3.85%.
Overall on confirmed cases the death rate is 4.73%. That's high for a flu, but still better than SARS. And that death rate continues to drop; there hasn't been a confirmed death from H1N1 in Mexico since last Friday.
The 1918 epidemic came in spring, died out in summer, but came back with a vengeance in the fall.
This was what was expected of the 1976 swine flu scare, and it never happened. OTOH, in the 1889-92 flu pandemic it was the third and fourth waves that proved most deadly in the UK. We really don't know what's going to happen at all with this. It could die out this summer and never come back. It could be the 1889-92 pandemic all over again with wave after wave hitting in successive winters (one that's had almost no books written about it, but its kill rate was much higher than the 1918 flu's was).
Getting a vaccine formulated, tested, and approved as quickly as possible is going to be crucial. If we don't have it in our arsenal come fall, it could be a very dark winter. And I'm guessing it won't be, unless they're going to hold up the coming season's vaccine production to get this inserted (which is thought to be why we went to Level 5 so fast.)
Honestly, we don't know. If you deaths / confirmed cases (7/26) it's a 26% death rate. If you go by suspected deaths + deaths / confirmed cases + estimated suspected cases in the hospital (77/2000) you're down to 3.85%.
Overall on confirmed cases the death rate is 4.73%. That's high for a flu, but still better than SARS. And that death rate continues to drop; there hasn't been a confirmed death from H1N1 in Mexico since last Friday.
The 1918 epidemic came in spring, died out in summer, but came back with a vengeance in the fall.
This was what was expected of the 1976 swine flu scare, and it never happened. OTOH, in the 1889-92 flu pandemic it was the third and fourth waves that proved most deadly in the UK. We really don't know what's going to happen at all with this. It could die out this summer and never come back. It could be the 1889-92 pandemic all over again with wave after wave hitting in successive winters (one that's had almost no books written about it, but its kill rate was much higher than the 1918 flu's was).
Getting a vaccine formulated, tested, and approved as quickly as possible is going to be crucial. If we don't have it in our arsenal come fall, it could be a very dark winter. And I'm guessing it won't be, unless they're going to hold up the coming season's vaccine production to get this inserted (which is thought to be why we went to Level 5 so fast.)
25
PEOPLE!!! CALM DOWN!!!
It's the flu. Ever had the flu before?
Yeah. It's that. The flu.
It's not a flesh-eating disease. It's not a bleed-out-your-anus disease. It's not a worms-in-your-skin disease.
It's the flu.
Get ready to have the flu in about a week.
It happens from time to time. The flu goes around. It has been doing so for a very long time.
At least America's not in a fucking world war this time.
It's the flu. Ever had the flu before?
Yeah. It's that. The flu.
It's not a flesh-eating disease. It's not a bleed-out-your-anus disease. It's not a worms-in-your-skin disease.
It's the flu.
Get ready to have the flu in about a week.
It happens from time to time. The flu goes around. It has been doing so for a very long time.
At least America's not in a fucking world war this time.
27
@19 -- influenza al pastor FTW.
@25 -- apparently you need to learn a bit more about pandemic flu. You should read John Barry's book.
@25 -- apparently you need to learn a bit more about pandemic flu. You should read John Barry's book.
28
@25: Different strains of the flu come with different levels of danger. Just like radiation. Getting a dental X-ray? No big deal. Cleaning up after Chernobyl? Different story.
The fact that this virus is genetically related to a seasonal virus that's usually relatively mild doesn't tell us that it's equally mild.
The fact that this virus is genetically related to a seasonal virus that's usually relatively mild doesn't tell us that it's equally mild.
29
dw@23: I appreciate your thoughtful post. But about those numbers out of Mexico: they're saying 184 suspected deaths out of 2500 suspected cases. I thought until today it was 2500 *hospitalizations*, which would make it's lethality much closer to other flus. But if 7.4% of the people who get it die, well fuhhhhhhhhhhhhhck. Yes that's better than the 9.6% for SARS, but only a little, and compares to .6% for "regular flu." And unlike SARS, it appears biased towards they young & healthy rather than the old & infirmed.
30
@27
I don't have to read John Barry's book to know that THIS is not America in 1918.
There are many types of flu. This is one of them.
Don't get me wrong. This could be bad. But Mexico's in a complete panic right now, pointing around, and screaming.
But where's the evidence that this flu is any more difficult to survive than any other flu?
Just because the CDC gave this one a pig name doesn't make it worse than when they gave it a bird name.
I mean, good luck with your apocalyptic fantasy next week.
I plan to telecommute with the flu.
I don't have to read John Barry's book to know that THIS is not America in 1918.
There are many types of flu. This is one of them.
Don't get me wrong. This could be bad. But Mexico's in a complete panic right now, pointing around, and screaming.
But where's the evidence that this flu is any more difficult to survive than any other flu?
Just because the CDC gave this one a pig name doesn't make it worse than when they gave it a bird name.
I mean, good luck with your apocalyptic fantasy next week.
I plan to telecommute with the flu.
31
In the name of Allah, the beneficent, the merciful – you should have listened. Swine has been bad news for a long time. Allah ho Akbar – bacon ho evil
34
I appreciate you backing me up here, Cracker Jack, but I can see that The Stranger is racist toward bacon.
I feel like I should be canceling my subscription.
I feel like I should be canceling my subscription.
35
This isn't AIDS for godsakes. You go to the doctor and you take some Tamiflu. Whoop-de-fuckin-shit.
36
This should really be called bacon flu, or pork flu. I can't believe the CDC and news outlets are in such cahoots to use the name "swine flu," which is a classic PR move to make people not realize the pork industry and pork consumers are responsible for this mess (and these deaths).
38
I'm going to have a nice ham sandwich for lunch today!!! It's good to be at the top of the food chain!
39
You're confident of that, are you CHZA? You know the kid who died in TX was in the Texas Children's Hospital for two weeks before he died, right? Think they gave him Tamiflu?
You go to the doctor and you take some Tamiflu.
You're confident of that, are you CHZA? You know the kid who died in TX was in the Texas Children's Hospital for two weeks before he died, right? Think they gave him Tamiflu?
40
I would actually love to see a poll of slog readers to see who intends to start wearing a mask
i'm putting one on today.
i'm putting one on today.
41
I'll wear one, but it has to be a William Shatner mask painted white. You know, to go with my coveralls.
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