Slog
News & ArtsFriday, April 24, 2009
City Hard Time for Initiative 100
Posted by Dominic Holden on Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 4:37 PM
As Washington Buzz was winding down last night, a man spontaneously accosted me about Initiative 100, which would block the city from building a new jail. He insisted that the initiative—the city's worst nightmare, by the sound of things—would make it onto the ballot and The Stranger shouldn't doubt it. Had The Stranger said it wouldn’t make the ballot? No, he said, but it’s something we should think about.
The man must have heard I’d been speaking to I-100 campaign manager Natalie Novak, who mentioned that the campaign has gathered only 4,000 to 5,000 signatures since filing the measure on January 23. She plans to turn in the roughly 18,000 valid the signatures by June 1 to make the general election ballot. “We have to get 386 signatures a day, which is nothing,” she said. But that is something. Given that at least quarter of all signatures are usually invalid for some reason (people move, aren’t registered at the address they signed on the petition, give a fake name, etc.), the group will likely need over 25,000 signatures to make the ballot. Plus, the group decided to use all volunteer signatures. That—averaging more like 500 signatures a day without paid petitioners—will be incredibly difficult.
“You don’t know who I am,” the man said, “But the question isn’t whether this will make it onto the ballot; it’s just a question of whether it makes it on the November ballot or the March [2010] ballot.” I didn’t want to be a dick, but I wanted to say, “You don’t know who I am.” I wanted to tell him that I know exactly how hard it is to get a city initiative on the ballot. I filed Initiative 75 and we worked like dogs and spent a ton of dough to qualify for the ballot, even suing the city for illegally invalidating certain signatures, and just barely made it on the ballot (we lost the court case but won the initiative in 2003). Since then, only four of the 25 city initiatives filed have made the ballot (Initiatives 77, 83, 88, and 91, says Deputy City Clerk Carol Shenk). But I didn’t say that to the guy; instead I’m telling everyone, because I actually am a dick. If I-100 gathers enough signatures by the July 23 turn-in deadline, they will likely miss the general election cut-off but qualify for next March’s special-election ballot. But I wouldn’t want to run a progressive measure on the March special-election ballot, which historically has some of the lowest voter turnout and oldest electorate. Conventional wisdom says those voters are more conservative and generally more inclined to support things like cops and jails. So if you want to help, I think this is the I-100 website.
2
aren't "they" (state or feds) closing mcneil island? now there will be a spare jail. problem solved.
3
I wanted to sign their thing the other day but someone stole the pen off the board. Hope I can catch them before the cutoff.
5
Thanks, Travis. I looked around inside the Google but could only find No New Jail blog. I've updated the link.
6
Thanks. I was looking for the website!
Someone sent me the link to download the petition last month. I printed a few and them all filled in, when a group of people told me they wanted to help. When is it due? What is the website? Gee I had a bad night last night looking like a blithering idiot.
Someone sent me the link to download the petition last month. I printed a few and them all filled in, when a group of people told me they wanted to help. When is it due? What is the website? Gee I had a bad night last night looking like a blithering idiot.
7
Good initiative, but why in the world doesn't Seattle support Castration & Probation? There's a very simple reason why over 90% of violent crimes are committed by males age 14-55.
8
I would like to see the 23000 figure doubled by the 15th the community needs to be raised in awareness a little more though.
9
You did ask if I knew who you were. I was there. I also know about how you told the campaign manager that they weren't likely to make the ballot. I approached you because I knew the Stranger would likely have a positive sentiment about this issue. I knew that if you all only understood why the initiative would make the ballot, perhaps you would change your reporting on the matter.
Apparently, I am wrong...
And we even talked about I-75. You even mentioned how hard it was to collect the signaures. I mentioned to you how hard it was to register 54,000 voters in less than a year, like an effort I led in 2004. I also mentioned to you have I've been on dozens of campaigns and have a good idea when a campaign has legs. Look, lots of us have experience. And some of us have a lot more than you. Ahem...
But you're right about some things: roughly 25% of signatures are invalid for many different reasons. But you entirely miss several key facts about the I-100 time line and the initiatives chances.
First, I-100 has a goal of 23,000 valid signatures by June 8th. Further, they are not counting signatures that are likely to be considered invalid. For the campaign to reach their goal of 23K valid signatures, they need 386 signatures per day between now and June 8th.
But that is only part of the story, and the reason for my comments to you at the buzz. The 180 day deadline for I-100 to collect signatures expires on July 22. As you well know, because of the City Charter, the city has an allotted time frame to review the measure of pass it on to the next ballot. If I-100 collects all its signatures by July 22, it is unclear if the city process will be complete. If the city does not complete its review by August 11th, the issue would not on the ballot until the February or March special election.
For the campaign to get 23,000 valid signatures between now and July 22, the campaign needs to collect 205 valid signatures per day. For those of you doing math, that would be about 275 total signatures per day that turns into 205 valid signatures per day.
FYI, the campaign is already collecting signatures at a faster clip than that.
Dominic, we'd all appreciate it if you all at the Stranger would report by asking questions and doing thorough research rather than just assuming an effort led by the homeless community couldn't possibly be organized. You know people thought the same thing about the pot heads...
More...
Apparently, I am wrong...
And we even talked about I-75. You even mentioned how hard it was to collect the signaures. I mentioned to you how hard it was to register 54,000 voters in less than a year, like an effort I led in 2004. I also mentioned to you have I've been on dozens of campaigns and have a good idea when a campaign has legs. Look, lots of us have experience. And some of us have a lot more than you. Ahem...
But you're right about some things: roughly 25% of signatures are invalid for many different reasons. But you entirely miss several key facts about the I-100 time line and the initiatives chances.
First, I-100 has a goal of 23,000 valid signatures by June 8th. Further, they are not counting signatures that are likely to be considered invalid. For the campaign to reach their goal of 23K valid signatures, they need 386 signatures per day between now and June 8th.
But that is only part of the story, and the reason for my comments to you at the buzz. The 180 day deadline for I-100 to collect signatures expires on July 22. As you well know, because of the City Charter, the city has an allotted time frame to review the measure of pass it on to the next ballot. If I-100 collects all its signatures by July 22, it is unclear if the city process will be complete. If the city does not complete its review by August 11th, the issue would not on the ballot until the February or March special election.
For the campaign to get 23,000 valid signatures between now and July 22, the campaign needs to collect 205 valid signatures per day. For those of you doing math, that would be about 275 total signatures per day that turns into 205 valid signatures per day.
FYI, the campaign is already collecting signatures at a faster clip than that.
Dominic, we'd all appreciate it if you all at the Stranger would report by asking questions and doing thorough research rather than just assuming an effort led by the homeless community couldn't possibly be organized. You know people thought the same thing about the pot heads...
10
As the Volunteer Coordinator for I-100, I am available anytime by email or phone to discuss deadlines, goals, signature counts and all things I-100 in an effort to keep the facts straight about our campaign.
While I can appreciate Dominic's writing, I am concerned (especially having worked on an initiative himself) that in his reporting he uses "guesstimates" and assumptions regarding our campaign time line.
The signature deadline is June 8th for the general election. The daily hard count goal is 386 signatures. Dominic, please be advised that the "padding" you speak of has been calculated into the formula, which is updated almost daily to reflect new numbers.
I have worked in politics for over 10 years, been doing it long enough for my profession to become fashionable thanks to our new President. While I am used to reporting not being favorable on certain issues, I've never accepted outright inaccuracy- especially where numbers are involved.
Dominic, I too attended the Buzz and was standing roughly 2 feet away when your conversation with Bill Monto took place. The next time you have questions regarding the status of the campaign- please feel free to ask me, I'm happy to give you answers.
I can be reached by email at: I-100@realchangenews.org
www.nonewjail.org
See you in the field,
Rachel
While I can appreciate Dominic's writing, I am concerned (especially having worked on an initiative himself) that in his reporting he uses "guesstimates" and assumptions regarding our campaign time line.
The signature deadline is June 8th for the general election. The daily hard count goal is 386 signatures. Dominic, please be advised that the "padding" you speak of has been calculated into the formula, which is updated almost daily to reflect new numbers.
I have worked in politics for over 10 years, been doing it long enough for my profession to become fashionable thanks to our new President. While I am used to reporting not being favorable on certain issues, I've never accepted outright inaccuracy- especially where numbers are involved.
Dominic, I too attended the Buzz and was standing roughly 2 feet away when your conversation with Bill Monto took place. The next time you have questions regarding the status of the campaign- please feel free to ask me, I'm happy to give you answers.
I can be reached by email at: I-100@realchangenews.org
www.nonewjail.org
See you in the field,
Rachel
11
The idea has been voted DOWN three times - many of us like having 9 council folk open to our calls - which means 3 or 4 will give you the time of day.
Under the ward system, if you are not an insider and give money - you are shit.
Wake up folks, this might be well intended, but, is THE reason for corrupt city politics.
Shit - is there nothing more important?
By the way, have never donated time or money to any race- but always vote, perfect voter. Tell me in the district system if you don't give a fucking nickel they will take your calls?
What planet are you on, if you think that is the way politics works.
Bad idea, waste of time, voted down three times in past years.
GO TO WORK FOR A STATE INCOME TAX, CHANGE THE FUTURE OF THE STATE - AND CREATE MONEY FOR MANY PROGRAMS - THIS IS IMPORTANT
Under the ward system, if you are not an insider and give money - you are shit.
Wake up folks, this might be well intended, but, is THE reason for corrupt city politics.
Shit - is there nothing more important?
By the way, have never donated time or money to any race- but always vote, perfect voter. Tell me in the district system if you don't give a fucking nickel they will take your calls?
What planet are you on, if you think that is the way politics works.
Bad idea, waste of time, voted down three times in past years.
GO TO WORK FOR A STATE INCOME TAX, CHANGE THE FUTURE OF THE STATE - AND CREATE MONEY FOR MANY PROGRAMS - THIS IS IMPORTANT
12
Under the Growth Management Act, the State requires the City Council to include in the City's comprehensive plan a process for identifying and siting essential public facilities such as jails. See RCW 36.70A.200. In Snohomish County v. Anderson, 123 Wn.2d 151 (1994), the Supreme Court found that the requirement of adopting a comprehensive plan is not subject to referendum, or, by analogy, initiative. So it is possible (even likely) that, even if enough signatures were gathered, this initiative would be struck from the ballot as beyond the scope of the initiative power.
13
sorry - got the jail advisory mixed up with disrtict voting
the jail advisory is a great idea and it will force more debate, keep the system looking for agreement between city and county
the jail advisory is a great idea and it will force more debate, keep the system looking for agreement between city and county
14
by the way - if you are pushed to sign - and really don't want to - you sign a phony name, make one up, or donald and mickey and minnie get their names on the petition
also, many people are not registered and arn't about to say so
also, many people are not registered and arn't about to say so
15
I am also curious, after some minor reflection, why Dominic would choose to write the entire a piece about I-100 from the point of view that he chose. With senior I-100 staff- and an awesome representation of the I-100 volunteer staff present at last night's event, I'm wondering how the broader point and framing of I-100 was so profoundly missed. I do hope that the Stranger staff and Dominic will consider looking at the reasoning behind this initiative as necessary first step. Our issue is often described as the civil rights issue of our era, a statement I believe to be true and the reason that motivates me to work tirelessly, 7 days a week to make it happen. The I-100 initiative is the blunt tool in achieving the social change that America desperately needs, investing in futures not failure.
In the field, gathering signatures- making it happen,
Rachel
Volunteer Coordinator, I-100 Campaign
I-100@realchangenews.org
In the field, gathering signatures- making it happen,
Rachel
Volunteer Coordinator, I-100 Campaign
I-100@realchangenews.org
16
100 people - what up with all the defensiveness. You'll either qualify or not; proof's in the pudding.
How's about you say a little something about why this silly initiative makes any damn sense? Seattle needs a jail so cops have a place to take idiots who get busted driving drunk. County's telling Seattle it can't use the jail at any price. So - duh - Seattle's got to build a jail.
How's about you say a little something about why this silly initiative makes any damn sense? Seattle needs a jail so cops have a place to take idiots who get busted driving drunk. County's telling Seattle it can't use the jail at any price. So - duh - Seattle's got to build a jail.
17
@14 - If someone pushes you to sign and you don't want to GROW A SPINE AND SAY NO!
@ everyone - a city jail makes very real sense in several ways. If the county is no longer willing to host we have no choice but even if the County is willing to extend the contract we need to think twice. King County has been using the jail as a profit center charging cities a substantial amount more than it truly costs to house prisoners. With the county's budget issues any new or extended contract is likely to reach significantly deeper into the city's pocketbook. Also, if you've read the reports KCJ is not a very good place and they aren't doing a very good job of taking care of prisoners - (most inmates prefer the state prisons to the county jail)... I would expect the city to be much more transparent and take better care of their inmates.
The intricacies of this issue, however, are precisely why it is foolish to put to voters. The decision needs to be made by well informed, well researched policy professionals. We have a glut of those already voted in and receiving salaries.
@ everyone - a city jail makes very real sense in several ways. If the county is no longer willing to host we have no choice but even if the County is willing to extend the contract we need to think twice. King County has been using the jail as a profit center charging cities a substantial amount more than it truly costs to house prisoners. With the county's budget issues any new or extended contract is likely to reach significantly deeper into the city's pocketbook. Also, if you've read the reports KCJ is not a very good place and they aren't doing a very good job of taking care of prisoners - (most inmates prefer the state prisons to the county jail)... I would expect the city to be much more transparent and take better care of their inmates.
The intricacies of this issue, however, are precisely why it is foolish to put to voters. The decision needs to be made by well informed, well researched policy professionals. We have a glut of those already voted in and receiving salaries.
19
Dear Slog decision makers,
Notice how the good comments aren't anonymous, and the anonymous comments are annoying or spam?
Notice how the good comments aren't anonymous, and the anonymous comments are annoying or spam?
20
hey dom: could you please edit you post? or, if you aren't capable of constructing proper sentences, could you please hire an english major to do it for you? your sentences are so poorly written i'm not sure what you're talking about. your post sort of looks like you had a sarah palin moment and shot down the english language from helicopter.
21
@ folks who are mad at me) These are my estimates based on my past work on initiatives, and I make it clear that this is my opinion. I believe I-100 will have a very difficult time making the general-election ballot, based on what I heard from the campaign. When I spoke to Natalie, she named the turn-in date of June 1 (at least, that's what I heard). Based on my past experience, that means that I-100 needs to gather 20,000 to 21,000 signatures in 38 days. That's about 500 sigs a day. But even at 386 signatures a day, that still isn't "nothing." It's a lot for an all-volunteer-petitioning campaign. The more people who have signed an initiative, the harder it is to gather new signatures. But I signed the petition and I think I-100 is a good idea, which is why I encouraged folks to help the campaign and provided a link to the website.
22
The county needs the money from the city - The city doesn't ant to build a jail -
This is wasted effort - the city and county will strike a deal.
Letters have been flying the last week.
The move for reform needs to continue with big open meetings, lots of coalition building, and concrete proposals ... it is time.
This is wasted effort - the city and county will strike a deal.
Letters have been flying the last week.
The move for reform needs to continue with big open meetings, lots of coalition building, and concrete proposals ... it is time.
23
All the idiots who oppose I-100 and get moist over the idea of another jail, open your eyes and stop regurgitating right wing crap. The city of Seattle does not need a new jail. They have now admitted so. Crime rates are down. Drunk drivers and wife beaters are not being released, unless they happen to serve on the City or County Council. The question is NOT whether we need a new jail (since the City now says we don't). The question is why there are so many reactionaries and conservatives masquerading as liberals and progressives in Seattle and reading the Stranger.
24
Dominic, you should an article on why citizen-based initiatives have NEVER gotten on the ballot in Seattle. If you have the big bucks, it's no problem because you can pay people to stand on a corner and gather signatures (fake democracy). But if you're a grassroots, community-based, all-volunteer project (you know, democratic), you will have problems. What's the use of an initiative process if only the ones with the big bucks can participate?
25
This drive I-100 It is not a volunteer drive they have paid coordinators
The only Volunteer In in Seattle was done for the Monorail way back
Dick Faulkenberry and Grant Cogswell no paid salarys... If Real Change
or who ever is really backing this drive.. with the money spent on
Salarys they could of had a training class of the people that push
the the Real Change and made it on the ballot... The timing is not
with them... And if they were paid they should be doing a proffessional
job -- It is a miss guided and should and could be thrown out of
court.
Who is paying these salaries Does Real Change have the money than they
should give the people that sell their newspaper something more.
Steve
The only Volunteer In in Seattle was done for the Monorail way back
Dick Faulkenberry and Grant Cogswell no paid salarys... If Real Change
or who ever is really backing this drive.. with the money spent on
Salarys they could of had a training class of the people that push
the the Real Change and made it on the ballot... The timing is not
with them... And if they were paid they should be doing a proffessional
job -- It is a miss guided and should and could be thrown out of
court.
Who is paying these salaries Does Real Change have the money than they
should give the people that sell their newspaper something more.
Steve
26
Dominic, you're write up on the jail is about as narrow as it gets. What issue is more important in the face of just electing a black president but to turn the tide on a half century of disproportionate incarceration of black people? Maybe it's something about being born after the civil rights movement....there are books on the subject....
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