As Washington Buzz was winding down last night, a man spontaneously accosted me about Initiative 100, which would block the city from building a new jail. He insisted that the initiative—the city's worst nightmare, by the sound of things—would make it onto the ballot and The Stranger shouldn't doubt it. Had The Stranger said it wouldn’t make the ballot? No, he said, but it’s something we should think about.

The man must have heard I’d been speaking to I-100 campaign manager Natalie Novak, who mentioned that the campaign has gathered only 4,000 to 5,000 signatures since filing the measure on January 23. She plans to turn in the roughly 18,000 valid the signatures by June 1 to make the general election ballot. “We have to get 386 signatures a day, which is nothing,” she said. But that is something. Given that at least quarter of all signatures are usually invalid for some reason (people move, aren’t registered at the address they signed on the petition, give a fake name, etc.), the group will likely need over 25,000 signatures to make the ballot. Plus, the group decided to use all volunteer signatures. That—averaging more like 500 signatures a day without paid petitioners—will be incredibly difficult.

“You don’t know who I am,” the man said, “But the question isn’t whether this will make it onto the ballot; it’s just a question of whether it makes it on the November ballot or the March [2010] ballot.” I didn’t want to be a dick, but I wanted to say, “You don’t know who I am.” I wanted to tell him that I know exactly how hard it is to get a city initiative on the ballot. I filed Initiative 75 and we worked like dogs and spent a ton of dough to qualify for the ballot, even suing the city for illegally invalidating certain signatures, and just barely made it on the ballot (we lost the court case but won the initiative in 2003). Since then, only four of the 25 city initiatives filed have made the ballot (Initiatives 77, 83, 88, and 91, says Deputy City Clerk Carol Shenk). But I didn’t say that to the guy; instead I’m telling everyone, because I actually am a dick. If I-100 gathers enough signatures by the July 23 turn-in deadline, they will likely miss the general election cut-off but qualify for next March’s special-election ballot. But I wouldn’t want to run a progressive measure on the March special-election ballot, which historically has some of the lowest voter turnout and oldest electorate. Conventional wisdom says those voters are more conservative and generally more inclined to support things like cops and jails. So if you want to help, I think this is the I-100 website.

Dom's going to have a longer post in a minute (with photos— including, I'm told, one of Emily Heffter and her famous purse straps) but here are a few observations from last night's awesome Stranger/Washington Bus meet-n-greet with the candidates at Moe Bar:

Nick Licata's campaign manager, Andrew Lewis, told me that an initiative to put district elections on the ballot is on hold until at least 2011 because of the difficulty of raising as many signatures as they would need to put districts on the 2009 ballot. Under the latest proposal, five members of the city council would be elected from districts, and four would be elected at large—the idea being that every voter would be able to vote for a majority of the council in every election. Changing the format of city elections requires amending the city charter, which requires more signatures than an ordinary citizen initiative—around 26,000, or 15 percent of the people who voted in the last city election. Today, consultant John Wyble (formerly of Moxie Media), who's working on that campaign, told me that to reach that threshold, "we'd need either a boatload of volunteers, and districts isn't the type of thing that has a natural base of volunteers, or we have to raise some money." Signatures typically cost between $1.50 and $2.00 a pop.

King County Executive candidate Larry Phillips, looking a little out of place in a suit and tie instead of the orange-and-green traffic vests worn by the city council candidates, showed up halfway through to gladhand the crowd. Not present was Phillips's opponent Dow Constantine, who was busy at his own event at the Crocodile downtown. "You're not going to THAT thing, are you?" Phillips asked me. (I didn't—Josh did.) More seriously, Phillips also said that it looks like the state isn't going to approve new funding sources for county health and human services programs that the county council placed in a "lifeboat" last year. If the county doesn't come up with a new way of funding those programs, which include domestic violence programs, drug treatment, public health clinics, and family planning services, they could be eliminated starting this summer.

Sally Bagshaw is the new Jan Drago. The evidence: She's supported by downtown business folks, she's surrounded by smart young women who look fresh out of business school (her campaign manager met her through the Seattle Chamber), and, um, she's running for Drago's seat. You couldn't ask for a better contrast in this race: Social-justice organizer David Bloom, with his background working for the Church Council and the Seattle Displacement Coalition, couldn't be more different than Bagshaw. Bagshaw's consultant is Christian Sinderman; John Wyble, formerly of Moxie Media, is working with Bloom.

Of all the candidates in attendance at Moe Bar last night, only one—Jordan Royer, running for Richard McIver's old seat—raised his hand when Washington Bus organizer Toby Crittendon asked how many people in the crowd were monthly Washington Bus members. You can find out more about the Bus and become a monthly contributor here