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News & ArtsFriday, March 20, 2009
Life / Economy What Do You Need?
Posted by Jonathan Golob on Fri, Mar 20, 2009 at 5:03 PM
That manufacturing is in decline is hardly surprising, but the depth and speed of the plunge are striking and, most worrisome for economists, a self-reinforcing trend not unlike the cascading bust that led to the Great Depression.In Europe, for example, where manufacturing accounts for nearly a fifth of gross domestic product, industrial production is down 12 percent from a year ago. In Brazil, it has fallen 15 percent; in Taiwan, a staggering 43 percent.
Even in China, which has become the workshop of the world, production growth has slowed, with exports falling more than 25 percent and millions of factory workers being laid off.
In the United States, until recently a relative bright spot for manufacturing despite the steady erosion of blue-collar jobs, industrial output fell 11 percent in February from a year ago, according to statistics released Monday by the Federal Reserve.
“Manufacturing has fallen off the cliff, and it’s certainly the biggest decline since the Second World War,” said Dirk Schumacher, senior European economist with Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt.
Vehicle traffic volumes are still dropping in the US—despite a collapse in energy prices. So are car sales. Global trade continues to drop like a stone, with port container traffic continuing to decline almost everywhere.
We, as a global community, have stopped buying. The consensus is, it's a panic. We'll all come back, wallets waving to container ships bursting with cheap crap. I'm not so sure.
What if this represents a real change? Americans are saving more than they have in decades. Perhaps we've realized that cheap crap is, well, cheap crap. It doesn't make us happier. Perhaps we've realized that a daily commute in a car by ourselves isn't the best path to a fulfilled life. Perhaps we're realized that living alone in isolated communities doesn't deliver joy.
I honestly have no clue. I've bought plenty of crap in my life. I've driven to work each day—although not for a decade. I grew up in suburbs. Not everyone has to live in a condo, or take a bus or bike to work. But, I have a glimmer of hope that this jolt has forced many of us to think about what we really need to live a happy life.
My answer starts with clean and potable tapwater. (Hot tapwater is the single most important thing society affords me; thinking of human history, it's a miracle.)
Where does your list start?
2
I am returning from Texas right now, where the recession seemingly doesn't exist, cars rule, and cheap crap is still in demand. Just sayin.
3
exactly the inverse seems to be happening here in japan, where people used to save most of their paychecks. those who still have paychecks are not really trying to save them anymore. there's also been more and more usage of credit, which can be seen in endless commercials for financial institutions that provide "until-payday" style small loans.
4
Leading indicators for manufacturing show a bottoming out and we have successfully avoided a depression at this time.
But ... after eight years of failure we're still in for a recession.
Oh, car ads are back on and liquidity for autos and other goods has been restored, but expect the America-haters in the Rush Limbaugh party to whine for a bit.
But ... after eight years of failure we're still in for a recession.
Oh, car ads are back on and liquidity for autos and other goods has been restored, but expect the America-haters in the Rush Limbaugh party to whine for a bit.
5
Public education (less so for me now, since I've already had it); police and fire services, and the rule of law; water, yes; shelter; those are the real basics. A usable public transit system helps, or at least some authority to pave enough spaces for me to use my bike to get around. Somewhere to get food, because I'm not going to grow all of my own.
That's a good start, I think.
That's a good start, I think.
6
Potable water. Sewage disposal and treatment. Safe shelter. Edible food. A reasonable degree of personal safety and security. Something to read. Access to some kind of medical care if I really need it. Some kind of baseline transportation infrastructure.
8
My list starts with cheeseburgers. Because, you know, if the water sucks, you can always drink beer (people have been doing that for centuries). But a life without cheeseburgers would be a life that's not worth living.
11
Production is another word for using up resources. Slowing down is a good thing.
Minimum: water, decent shelter w/heat source, a way to get food and clothes, basic tools, and some friends. Bonus: better tools, bikes, books, musical instruments or a way to make them. Luxury: electricity, recorded music, phone and internet.
Minimum: water, decent shelter w/heat source, a way to get food and clothes, basic tools, and some friends. Bonus: better tools, bikes, books, musical instruments or a way to make them. Luxury: electricity, recorded music, phone and internet.
12
Public storage units. Because where else to put all that stuff you've gotta have if a) you've had to move back in with Ma & Pa or b) simply outgrown your McMansion with 4-car garage, until this annoying economic blip passes and you can head back to Costco with a burgeoning credit line and an echo-ey SUV?
One word: padlocks.
One word: padlocks.
13
A home. Which I have already. I'd just like to keep it.
This recession will pass, but the mark it leaves on us might, hopefully, last a while.
I graduated into the early 90's recession, when no one was expected to have good jobs and nice stuff. The unmentionable G word was the predominant aesthetic. They were good times, and I feel lucky compared to the kids who've never seen anything but boom years.
This recession will pass, but the mark it leaves on us might, hopefully, last a while.
I graduated into the early 90's recession, when no one was expected to have good jobs and nice stuff. The unmentionable G word was the predominant aesthetic. They were good times, and I feel lucky compared to the kids who've never seen anything but boom years.
14
I need a lot of stuff and so do a lot of people...the problem is they aren't selling it yet!
I'm saving my money for five years until they finally release:
1) Cheap hydrogen fuel cell cars
2) An efficient water hydrolyzer that converts water to hydrogen gas.
3) An efficient nanotechnology H2O collector that will let me live anywhere without access to portable water.
4) A netbook that ways 2 ounces instead of 2 pounds (actually I'm happy with my Dell mini 9 with Ubuntu for now)
5) Fresh tasty food
6) Cheap land so I can homestead two acres
7) Universal WiMax in all areas of the United States
8) Prefab domes that can be set up in one day and provide a 10 room domicile.
9) Jobs that require 100 percent creativity (actually this isn't something you buy, but it's part of the plan) and dedication
10) Reusuable bodies like in Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom
I'm saving my money for five years until they finally release:
1) Cheap hydrogen fuel cell cars
2) An efficient water hydrolyzer that converts water to hydrogen gas.
3) An efficient nanotechnology H2O collector that will let me live anywhere without access to portable water.
4) A netbook that ways 2 ounces instead of 2 pounds (actually I'm happy with my Dell mini 9 with Ubuntu for now)
5) Fresh tasty food
6) Cheap land so I can homestead two acres
7) Universal WiMax in all areas of the United States
8) Prefab domes that can be set up in one day and provide a 10 room domicile.
9) Jobs that require 100 percent creativity (actually this isn't something you buy, but it's part of the plan) and dedication
10) Reusuable bodies like in Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom
16
Hopefully it is a secular and not cyclical change. But that means you can kiss a bunch of manufacturing jobs goodbye.
18
Unfortunately, I don't think the drop in demand for cheap plastic crap indicates a spiritual awakening among Americans. Money is tight for a lot of people... The HELOC ATM has been shut down, credit limits reduced, investment and retirement accounts have hemorrhaged value, and eternal real-estate appreciation has been proven a fable. People are just spending more carefully. If the cash pump were to restart, we'd all be rushing out to get pink Bentleys just like Paris.
20
Clean socks. Boy do I love clean socks. Also, @14, learn the difference between ways and weighs before you tell me we should all be converting water to fuel for cars. We'll never run out of water, right? Right?
23
ooh, clean underpants ... I hear Macy's has a sale ... this weekend.
Look, if you have a job, you actually are ahead of the game.
Look, if you have a job, you actually are ahead of the game.
25
Stable and predictable supply of electricity, heat and potable water. Fresh food, enough to supply a reasonable daily caloric intake. A home or shelter, preferably of my own. Take any one of those out, and I'll be reaching for the Quietus. Although, I did make it through a few months in Russia one summer in the early 90s when electricity was iffy, hot water non-existent, and you could get your throat slit just stepping outside your apartment building, but I was much younger, and there was vodka.
27
@23... Do YOU have a job? I mean, you're here on Slog every day spouting off on every thread, yet saying so little, and so often wrong...
I know I'm asking for a lot here, but what do you actually do for a living, Mr. Will in Seattle, that lets you troll SLOG every thread, every day?
Does someone actually employ you? I've heard UW, which would figure... I'm just glad I don't live in WA, so my taxes aren't paying your salary. Get back to work, you worthless blowhard POS.
I know I'm asking for a lot here, but what do you actually do for a living, Mr. Will in Seattle, that lets you troll SLOG every thread, every day?
Does someone actually employ you? I've heard UW, which would figure... I'm just glad I don't live in WA, so my taxes aren't paying your salary. Get back to work, you worthless blowhard POS.
28
global recessiona means less trade! trade bad, yay yay yay !!
millions of law paid factory workers in emerging nations will be fired, yay! and go back to farms and starve, yay!!!!!
millions of law paid factory workers in emerging nations will be fired, yay! and go back to farms and starve, yay!!!!!
29
@27 - will is awesome. he has sweat equity on slog. he is highly durable and cannot be made to go. just accept that and move on.
30
clean and potable tapwater is where it's AT!
Happy World Water Day weekend
http://www.unwater.org/worldwaterday/fla…
Happy World Water Day weekend
http://www.unwater.org/worldwaterday/fla…
31
@17 and 19,
Does LA count? I just tried goat curry for the first time last week at an Indian restaurant in Venice. It was lovely, until you actually got to the goat part (too gamy and fatty for me - but I did eat most of it. Sorry 19!)
Back on topic - public utilities and infrastructure are a wonderful thing that we completely take for granted until there's a problem with them - water, waste control, power (life without electricity would truly suck, if you ask me), the ability to get around without having to hack your way through a forest, etc.
And let's not forget washers and dryers - doing laundry in the pre-technological era was a huge pain in the ass.
Does LA count? I just tried goat curry for the first time last week at an Indian restaurant in Venice. It was lovely, until you actually got to the goat part (too gamy and fatty for me - but I did eat most of it. Sorry 19!)
Back on topic - public utilities and infrastructure are a wonderful thing that we completely take for granted until there's a problem with them - water, waste control, power (life without electricity would truly suck, if you ask me), the ability to get around without having to hack your way through a forest, etc.
And let's not forget washers and dryers - doing laundry in the pre-technological era was a huge pain in the ass.
33
I lived in my car for six years. Staying dry became crucial. No hot food became almost painful.
Having no toilet was very vexing, no more so than when I was sick, which was often. But strangely, I became grateful for what little I had. And little by little I could face each day with a shred of hope that things would get better.
Maybe, just maybe, we will see what's important and restructure our insatiable gluttony into something sustainable. If not, we are in for more, much more, trouble.
Having no toilet was very vexing, no more so than when I was sick, which was often. But strangely, I became grateful for what little I had. And little by little I could face each day with a shred of hope that things would get better.
Maybe, just maybe, we will see what's important and restructure our insatiable gluttony into something sustainable. If not, we are in for more, much more, trouble.
34
Potable tap water, immunization, antibiotics, electronic long-distance communications (beginning with the telegraph and marconi wireless), and jet travel are the miracles of the modern age.
Everything else is window dressing.
If cheap crap sales dry up, that's a good thing in my book. The cheap crap industrial complex is up there with the private health insurance bureaucracy and the fossil fuels industry in the list of things that need to get a *lot* smaller as quickly as possible.
Everything else is window dressing.
If cheap crap sales dry up, that's a good thing in my book. The cheap crap industrial complex is up there with the private health insurance bureaucracy and the fossil fuels industry in the list of things that need to get a *lot* smaller as quickly as possible.
35
many mentioned electricity so far, but a subset of that: the refrigerator and canned food. Obviously clean water is always number one given the whole three-days-without-and-you-die problem, but keeping food from spoiling is huge. Imagine what a constant pain in the ass it is to use everything purchased in one or two days. When I'm marveling at the various appliances in my house - frequent weekend activity - I always give extra kisses to the fridge, particularly right before I open it and take out my next meal.
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