Slog
News & ArtsTuesday, March 3, 2009
City Steinbrueck vs. Nickels
Posted by Erica C. Barnett on Tue, Mar 3, 2009 at 9:01 AM
Don't get too excited; Peter Steinbrueck hasn't declared he'll run against Mayor Greg "Invincible" Nickels. However, a recent poll shows that if he did run, he'd have an excellent shot.
Among likely primary-election voters, in a four-way race between Nickels, former city attorney Mark Sidran, and city council member Nick Licata, Steinbrueck comes in second to Nickels with 15.8 percent of the vote to Nickels's 17.3 percent. I don't have the margin of error on those numbers, but I'm guessing those percentages are statistically equivalent.
But it's in a two-way matchup that things get interesting. (A two-way matchup, by the way, is the most likely scenario at this point—no viable candidates to Nickels have come forward so far, Sidran has said he isn't running, and Licata claims he's going to seek reelection.) In that scenario, Steinbrueck wallops Nickels 46.6 percent to 24.1 percent, with 29.4 percent undecided. Among likely primary voters 55 and up (the sub-group that's most likely to vote in an off-year primary election like this year's), Steinbrueck gets an outright majority of 53.2 percent to Nickels's 22.4 percent, with 24.4 percent undecided.
Those are good numbers. Really good. Potentially good enough to overcome the (perhaps irrational) fear that Nickels has all the money in town locked up. Steinbrueck's looking like the best shot Nickels opponents (and bored political journalists) have for an interesting, viable challenger this year. Run, Peter, run!
1
I am betting that Michael McGinn is more likely to run against Nickels than Steinbrueck is. McGinn would make a great mayor. He would get things done and would build a healthy relationship with Council.
4
Peter Steinbrueck is a mediocre hack. He would not be any improvement over Nickels. Journalists just want a horse race so they can breathlessly cover unimportant matters. The test of this is, would The Stranger rather have Sidran run against Nickels, and risk a Sidran win (if, say, Nickels should suffer a scandal or a health problem) or would The Stranger rather have Nickels run unopposed. Clearly the former, which means The Stranger puts its short-term "there must be a horse race at any cost" interest above that of the City. So obvious, so pathetic. When will Joni Balter be joining The Stranger staff?
5
I don't think Steinbrueck would make a better mayor. Nickels is fine; he does a good job of balancing growth and progress. I just don't see Steinbrueck 'getting things done' the way Nickels seems to be able to.
6
Mayor McCheese is shit. Have you been to Vancouver BC or Portland? Notice how much nicer they are? God, I love the parking lot food vendors in PDX and elevated rapid transit in Vancouver. Remember the monorail?
7
what poll?? this makes no sense, no matter if they're bored or not political journalists usually cite sources
8
@4: Are you crazy? Journalists want to cover a DEMOCRACY, not a horse race. No viable competition means no accountability, no matter what your political leanings are. No candidate for office ever deserves to be reelected without a serious challenge.
The reason that Nickels is so unpopular is that he was elected as a defender of the Seattle Way against Sidran, and then promptly went into permanent campaign mode. In other words, he completely misrepresented himself to voters.
But now, it's hard to dislodge the man. Unlike Uhlman, Royer, Rice, and Schell, Nickels has no life experience outside being a politician. He won't retire to teach at Harvard, as Royer did, or ever serve as Dean of the UW's architecture school, as Schell once did. All he knows is reward your friends and punish your enemies. He's created a toxic culture in city government by appointing unqualified young supporters to positions of power because he values loyalty over excellence. He permanently fundraises from developers who he is supposed to regulate. And he locks anyone out of power who he feels might possibly one day take credit for doing something good in a realm he sees as essential to his reelection. His donors are his friends are his clients are his base are all insiders in one form or another. He survives on a climate of fear of being locked out of power. Campaign contributions are his tribute.
Maybe he could get away with being such a jerk if he were handsome and charismatic, but he's not. So he will never be popular here, even if he tries to convince us that power is popularity, as if money is virtue. Nickels will never leave, except to claim a higher post elsewhere, and even then he will bequeeth his machine and empty suit to someone else to take his place.
Hopefully a serious challenger would not just take on the Nickels machine, but would put help create "change" in the city's political culture. After 8 years, we certainly need it.
More...
The reason that Nickels is so unpopular is that he was elected as a defender of the Seattle Way against Sidran, and then promptly went into permanent campaign mode. In other words, he completely misrepresented himself to voters.
But now, it's hard to dislodge the man. Unlike Uhlman, Royer, Rice, and Schell, Nickels has no life experience outside being a politician. He won't retire to teach at Harvard, as Royer did, or ever serve as Dean of the UW's architecture school, as Schell once did. All he knows is reward your friends and punish your enemies. He's created a toxic culture in city government by appointing unqualified young supporters to positions of power because he values loyalty over excellence. He permanently fundraises from developers who he is supposed to regulate. And he locks anyone out of power who he feels might possibly one day take credit for doing something good in a realm he sees as essential to his reelection. His donors are his friends are his clients are his base are all insiders in one form or another. He survives on a climate of fear of being locked out of power. Campaign contributions are his tribute.
Maybe he could get away with being such a jerk if he were handsome and charismatic, but he's not. So he will never be popular here, even if he tries to convince us that power is popularity, as if money is virtue. Nickels will never leave, except to claim a higher post elsewhere, and even then he will bequeeth his machine and empty suit to someone else to take his place.
Hopefully a serious challenger would not just take on the Nickels machine, but would put help create "change" in the city's political culture. After 8 years, we certainly need it.
9
I agreew with 4 & 5. Steinbrueck won't be good. Nickels is good.
If I were Peter Streinbrueck and I looked before any campaigning after all kinds of bad press about snow storms, etc. against Nickels and I still didn't crack 50%? I wouldn't run. This poll is not "really good" for streinbrueck.
If I were Peter Streinbrueck and I looked before any campaigning after all kinds of bad press about snow storms, etc. against Nickels and I still didn't crack 50%? I wouldn't run. This poll is not "really good" for streinbrueck.
11
Steinbrueck would be a GREAT mayor. He actually understands small business, knows a ton about green development and would promote real real strategies for the future of this city not empty soundbite rhetoric Nickels puts out there.
Nickels is horrid. The only thing worse would be Sidran.
Really Peter, you should run. You'll win. Think of this city with Dow Constantine as KC Executive and Peter Steinbrueck as Mayor. We'd finally have politicians at the top that represent the people who live here - young, vital, progressive, smart, pro-business, pro-transit, and into efficient, effective government. A very exciting and real possibility.
Nickels is horrid. The only thing worse would be Sidran.
Really Peter, you should run. You'll win. Think of this city with Dow Constantine as KC Executive and Peter Steinbrueck as Mayor. We'd finally have politicians at the top that represent the people who live here - young, vital, progressive, smart, pro-business, pro-transit, and into efficient, effective government. A very exciting and real possibility.
14
@9. Do you work for Nickels? That's pretty funny spin. Steinbrueck has been out of politics for 2 years or so, isn't running (yet) and still gets over 50% among likely primary voters vs. the 2 term incumbent Mayor who hasn't been involved in a scandal. That's HUGE and spells doom for Nickels if anyone serious, including Steinbrueck, runs. Hopefully we'll get a new Obama like Dem from the left to run and not a freak like Sidran.
15
As someone who really studied Peter in action for years, I agree with @8 and @11. We need our democracy back. If you like Nichols, then I won't bother arguing because you think patronage systems and machine politics are just dandy.
Whoever else you think is good, no one knows their name or seen them actually navigate the governing of this city. Please people, please don't let the perfect be the enemy of the really really good.
Whoever else you think is good, no one knows their name or seen them actually navigate the governing of this city. Please people, please don't let the perfect be the enemy of the really really good.
17
@14
No, I don't work for Nickels. He gets over 50% among one sub-group of likely voters. Among likely voters in general, it's still less than 50%. As the snowpacolypse drama wears off - the election is in november for christsakes - and people realize more and more Steinbrueck's level of competency, they'll break for Nickels.
No, I don't work for Nickels. He gets over 50% among one sub-group of likely voters. Among likely voters in general, it's still less than 50%. As the snowpacolypse drama wears off - the election is in november for christsakes - and people realize more and more Steinbrueck's level of competency, they'll break for Nickels.
18
Trevor @8: Sorry, I'm glad to see you have such a high opinion of journalists, but ECB's post completely proves my point. Not a single word of the post suggests that any of the candidates discussed would make a better mayor than Nickels. The post is completely devoid of any policy discussion whatsoever, let alone important policies such as "small business" or "green development."
The post simply demands that Nickels should have an opponent, any opponent! Even Sidran, for God's sake.
The entire post is horse race, polling, bullshit snapshot out-of-context statistics.
I would welcome coverage of policy differences and the reasoned support of a candidate who differs from Nickels and has a track record of getting those policies put in place. That is not the coverage The Stranger is offering.
The post simply demands that Nickels should have an opponent, any opponent! Even Sidran, for God's sake.
The entire post is horse race, polling, bullshit snapshot out-of-context statistics.
I would welcome coverage of policy differences and the reasoned support of a candidate who differs from Nickels and has a track record of getting those policies put in place. That is not the coverage The Stranger is offering.
19
@11
There is not a single politician in our state that is more pro-transit than Greg Nickels. If you don't understand that, than you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
There is not a single politician in our state that is more pro-transit than Greg Nickels. If you don't understand that, than you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
20
@19 - you are wrong. Steinbrueck for one is, and would also have the ability to work with other people, like our governor for instance, in a way that would effectively accomplish pro-transit goals, not just get headlines about political grandstanding and infighting. We currently have a mayor that can't even be in the same room as the governor. That's sad for our city.
Nickels' soundbite policies that get press are lame Actual progressive strategies that get passed and put in motion and move us towards an actual long-term vision for the City are what we need.
That's Nickels vs. Steinbrueck. It's old school democratic bureaucracy vs. fresh progressive leadership. It's Hilary vs. Obama, Burbank vs. Carlyle. Nickels is safe for the old school political machine. But candidates like Steinbrueck are the future. He should run, and I hope he does.
Nickels' soundbite policies that get press are lame Actual progressive strategies that get passed and put in motion and move us towards an actual long-term vision for the City are what we need.
That's Nickels vs. Steinbrueck. It's old school democratic bureaucracy vs. fresh progressive leadership. It's Hilary vs. Obama, Burbank vs. Carlyle. Nickels is safe for the old school political machine. But candidates like Steinbrueck are the future. He should run, and I hope he does.
21
@9 - If just under 50% is bad for Steinbrueck, than wtf do you call Nickels being under 25%? Stick to analyzing transit and not polls.
22
@20
Yeah getting Prop. 1 on the ballot and passing was "just get headlines about political grandstanding and infighting". You have no idea what you are talking about.
@21, obviously polling under 25% is bad for nickels, but steinbrueck needs to do better than 50% to win. It's the John Kerry effect, a lot of people really don't like Nickels, so they say they'll support anyone who isn't him. The people that like Nickels like him, and everyone else is indifferent. The indifferent people tend to break toward the incumbent, which is why GWB won in 2004, even though he was behind in every poll.
Most people don't know much about steinbrueck (look at including #20's comment), and keep in mind that some people will decide they don't like Steinbrueck or any one else the more they know about him, unless he has some barack obama quality. From the times I've talked ot Peter, he's no barack obama. More like dan quayle.
It won't be a cake walk for Nickels against steinbrueck, winning a third term is never easy and we've only had one third-term mayor here, but Steinbrueck isn't a great opponent and the fact that he can't be 50% against nickels in february means that he's got a long road ahead.
Yeah getting Prop. 1 on the ballot and passing was "just get headlines about political grandstanding and infighting". You have no idea what you are talking about.
@21, obviously polling under 25% is bad for nickels, but steinbrueck needs to do better than 50% to win. It's the John Kerry effect, a lot of people really don't like Nickels, so they say they'll support anyone who isn't him. The people that like Nickels like him, and everyone else is indifferent. The indifferent people tend to break toward the incumbent, which is why GWB won in 2004, even though he was behind in every poll.
Most people don't know much about steinbrueck (look at including #20's comment), and keep in mind that some people will decide they don't like Steinbrueck or any one else the more they know about him, unless he has some barack obama quality. From the times I've talked ot Peter, he's no barack obama. More like dan quayle.
It won't be a cake walk for Nickels against steinbrueck, winning a third term is never easy and we've only had one third-term mayor here, but Steinbrueck isn't a great opponent and the fact that he can't be 50% against nickels in february means that he's got a long road ahead.
23
@22,
There have been lots of polls done that show similar results for Nickels. Any incumbent who is polling below 30% is in deep shit, period.
There have been lots of polls done that show similar results for Nickels. Any incumbent who is polling below 30% is in deep shit, period.
24
Of course Peter Steinbrueck would beat Nickels, and of course he'd be a good mayor.
The biggest problem with Nickels is that he is too much of a dork to understand what makes Seattle a cool place to live. (Witness his bizarre crusade against bars and strip clubs.)
Seattle deserves a mayor with charm, humor, and basic social skills.
The biggest problem with Nickels is that he is too much of a dork to understand what makes Seattle a cool place to live. (Witness his bizarre crusade against bars and strip clubs.)
Seattle deserves a mayor with charm, humor, and basic social skills.
25
And just to pile on Andrew a bit more here, the fact that he blows off Steinbrueck's appeal to older voters in an off-year election indicates how little he knows about how electoral campaigns actually work.
And the notion that "most people don't know much about Steinbrueck" is equally laughable - he's got great name recognition and positive ID among lots of voters - hence polling at 46.6% to Nickels' 24.1%. Do you really think all 30% of voters who are undecided after two terms of Nickels are going to go his way in an election?
Wishful thinking is not analysis, dude.
And the notion that "most people don't know much about Steinbrueck" is equally laughable - he's got great name recognition and positive ID among lots of voters - hence polling at 46.6% to Nickels' 24.1%. Do you really think all 30% of voters who are undecided after two terms of Nickels are going to go his way in an election?
Wishful thinking is not analysis, dude.
26
Steinbrueck would be an excellent mayor. He lays out a clear vision then works and plays well with others. Nickels issues talking points and inspires fear.
They've both been effective, but this is the era of Barack Obama. Chicago machine-style politics and bullying leadership are so 2008.
They've both been effective, but this is the era of Barack Obama. Chicago machine-style politics and bullying leadership are so 2008.
27
@25
The difference between older voters and the electorate in general is not large in the numbers Erica showed.
All polled:
PS: 46.6
GN: 24.1
UN 29.4
"likely primary voters 55 and up"
PS: 53.2 percent
GN: 22.4 percent
UN: 24.4
Whatever, I guess we'll see in November. It may just be my impression of Steinbrueck's incompetence in person (do you really want a drunk-ass mayor who doesn't know the difference between a streetcar and light rail when we are spending billions on those?) but I think he'd be crappy.
I guess we'll see in november
The difference between older voters and the electorate in general is not large in the numbers Erica showed.
All polled:
PS: 46.6
GN: 24.1
UN 29.4
"likely primary voters 55 and up"
PS: 53.2 percent
GN: 22.4 percent
UN: 24.4
Whatever, I guess we'll see in November. It may just be my impression of Steinbrueck's incompetence in person (do you really want a drunk-ass mayor who doesn't know the difference between a streetcar and light rail when we are spending billions on those?) but I think he'd be crappy.
I guess we'll see in november
28
Andrew--Steinbrueck's name recognition is well over 80%, and he never received less than 70% in election campaigns. People know who he is, and they like him.
29
@27,
I'll take a personable guy with some sense of social justice who drinks occasionally over a teetotalling bully who gives the store away to developers and kicks the homeless around any day of the week, thanks.
And how you find hope for Nickels in those numbers is just beyond me - statistical analysis clearly isn't your strong suit.
I'll take a personable guy with some sense of social justice who drinks occasionally over a teetotalling bully who gives the store away to developers and kicks the homeless around any day of the week, thanks.
And how you find hope for Nickels in those numbers is just beyond me - statistical analysis clearly isn't your strong suit.
30
There is a Facebook group called "Peter Steinbrueck, for the love of Seattle, RUN FOR MAYOR!" -- 115 members as of right now.
32
@29.
I have a masters in math and worked for a pollster in 2004 during the presidential election. You don't have to believe me, but remember this thread in november.
I have a masters in math and worked for a pollster in 2004 during the presidential election. You don't have to believe me, but remember this thread in november.
33
@22 - Clearly, you still have a contact high from eating a hot dog grilled by Ceis at the Mayor's event on Saturday.
34
Wow, Mark Sidran is back, what's he been doing since he lost to (now Mayor) Nickles the 1st time?
35
I'm sorry, but I just don't understand everyone's beef with GN. He's run the city fairly well, especially as compared to the previous guy. He's shown leadership on climate change. Whether you agree with it or not, he's stuck his neck out on the viaduct and managed to bring the Governor with him against the Speaker Chopp's mad wall idea. The poll just doesn't make sense in that context. Are we really considering turning him out of office because of a snowstorm? Are we Chicago? Peter is a well meaning citizen from a nice family, but do you really believe he's going to be more competent? I think the opposition to Nickles is more about style than substance. It's not the outcomes, but the tender sensibilities of the those who love the Process.
36
Nickels was good in theory - I was hoping his ballbusting ways would break through the "Seattle Way" nonsense that's made it impossible to get anything done.
Unfortunately, he's turned out to be a whore for developers as they're the only ones he ever flexes his muscles for.
Overall, I wouldn't say he's been a "bad mayor" but he's been very disappointing because I think he could've accomplished more and better things.
Unfortunately, he's turned out to be a whore for developers as they're the only ones he ever flexes his muscles for.
Overall, I wouldn't say he's been a "bad mayor" but he's been very disappointing because I think he could've accomplished more and better things.
37
@29,
OK, I retract the comment. But I'm still amazed at how you are spinning numbers that ANY incumbent would regard as very, very bad indeed (and no, I don't think they guarantee someone else will win in November, but these numbers are just about as dreadful as Paul Schell's were post-WTO, and we all know how that worked out).
OK, I retract the comment. But I'm still amazed at how you are spinning numbers that ANY incumbent would regard as very, very bad indeed (and no, I don't think they guarantee someone else will win in November, but these numbers are just about as dreadful as Paul Schell's were post-WTO, and we all know how that worked out).
38
@32 - Since you insist on comparing Steinbrueck vs. Nickels to Kerry vs. Bush, on this very day 5 years ago, March 3 2004, Bush was at 46-45 vs. Kerry (AP/Ipsos poll). You still want to compare Nickels' numbers to Bush's? Furthermore, Team Nickels must be cringing while watching you defend them by comparing the Mayor's popularity to Bush Jr.
...unless they've completely lost touch.
...unless they've completely lost touch.
39
@37,
I 100% agree these look bad for Nickels. I just think these don't look "really good" for steinbrueck, as ECB said they did. I think they look like "Peter Steinbrueck has a lot of work to do if he wants to be mayor of Seattle".
I still think it's weird that Dow Constantine has choosen to run for County Exec, which will be a tough fight, instead of running for mayor which wouldn't be as tough.
I 100% agree these look bad for Nickels. I just think these don't look "really good" for steinbrueck, as ECB said they did. I think they look like "Peter Steinbrueck has a lot of work to do if he wants to be mayor of Seattle".
I still think it's weird that Dow Constantine has choosen to run for County Exec, which will be a tough fight, instead of running for mayor which wouldn't be as tough.
40
@39,
Don't kid yourself - polling close to 50% against an incumbent who seems stuck in the low-mid 20's is a very good place for any insurgent candidate to be.
Don't kid yourself - polling close to 50% against an incumbent who seems stuck in the low-mid 20's is a very good place for any insurgent candidate to be.
41
@35, you're kidding right? GN is out of touch. He has surrounded himself with people who keep him that way, often carrying out their own agendas while Greg isn't paying attention. He lost control of the SPD. He has only superficial pro-green policy, has sold out the city to the low design standards of his developer donors, and has even failed to fill potholes. He DID start to synchronize stoplights at one point, but even that idea seems to have been lost in time. And most of all he has no vision. If you disagree, what's his vision for the future of the city? He's also anti-fun, which is one of our largest economic drivers, according to his own economic impact studies. The guy is a vision-less dud.
42
Ok I will say it. Greg Nichols is a total and complete embarassment for anyone who actually wants to be a post-Obama Democratic. I've been embarassed by him over the years to the point where I will not speak to him at party events and I won't pass out any literature that has his name on it.
I believe in democracy and Nichols behavior in bullying and lack of accountability (instances where there is no proof that funds were spent in the manner allocated by council, for example) has been just legally short of impeachment. If he were in a city-manager form of government, he would have been fired a long time ago. This is supposed to be a strong council form of government, the many in council should be able to legislate.
Bush is GONE. People who used Bush's playbook -- I do not care how much they mouth platitudes while taking environmentally questionable actions and greenwashing us -- need to be gone no matter which party insiders' backends they choose to kiss.
I believe in democracy and Nichols behavior in bullying and lack of accountability (instances where there is no proof that funds were spent in the manner allocated by council, for example) has been just legally short of impeachment. If he were in a city-manager form of government, he would have been fired a long time ago. This is supposed to be a strong council form of government, the many in council should be able to legislate.
Bush is GONE. People who used Bush's playbook -- I do not care how much they mouth platitudes while taking environmentally questionable actions and greenwashing us -- need to be gone no matter which party insiders' backends they choose to kiss.
43
Greg Nickels is SO petty.
Case in point: Speakers brought to Seattle for the City's "Transformational Lecture Series" are required to sign unenforceable and unconstitutional contracts that require permission (from the City, ie Nickels) to meet with anyone while in town. Why? Because, once, some speaker sponsored by the City actually met with Ron Sims while visiting Seattle.
THAT is how pathetic Nickels is. And there are so many more stories like it. The man has got to go!
Case in point: Speakers brought to Seattle for the City's "Transformational Lecture Series" are required to sign unenforceable and unconstitutional contracts that require permission (from the City, ie Nickels) to meet with anyone while in town. Why? Because, once, some speaker sponsored by the City actually met with Ron Sims while visiting Seattle.
THAT is how pathetic Nickels is. And there are so many more stories like it. The man has got to go!
44
Nickels is a petty tyrant.
What type of prude spends his sleepless nights dreaming up a 4-foot rule for strippers?
What type of prude spends his sleepless nights dreaming up a 4-foot rule for strippers?
45
Between Nickels and Steinbrueck, my vote would go to Steinbrueck, no doubt. One of my biggest complaints about Nickels is his deputy, Ceis. Sorry, neither Nickels or Ceis are reflective of where Seattle wants and needs to go.
Run, Peter, Run!!
Run, Peter, Run!!
46
I think if Peter were going to run he would have started his campaign long ago. Let's hope for the sake of Seattle that Donaldson's exploratory campaign goes somewhere.
Advertisement
Most Commented on Slog
-
Hating People Doesn't Make Them Thinner by Jen Graves
-
Los Angeles Gay Bar Bans Bachelorette Parties Until Marriage Equality Is Attained by David Schmader
-
Fill in the Blank by Grant Brissey
-
This Reminds Me of the Great Calculator Scare of the Late '70s/Early '80s by David Schmader
-
Idiot Tries to Defend Bigoted Anti-Gay-Marriage Preacher on Anderson Cooper by Paul Constant
-
SL Letter of the Day: Putting It In by Dan Savage
-
Six Moms with Too Much Time on Their Hands and a Shitty Website Decide to Fight Gay Superheroes by Paul Constant
-
Why Mayor McGinn's Wife Canceled Her Family's Seattle Times Subscription by Eli Sanders
-
What the Hell Is Wrong With Seattle's Pride Parade? by Dominic Holden
-
Meet the UW "Swagga Suit" by David Schmader
RSS
Facebook
Twitter
Comments (46) RSS