Thursday, January 8, 2009
Science / Enviro How Civilization Is Going to End
Posted by Jonathan Golob on Thu, Jan 8, 2009 at 4:20 PM
Wonder no more.
University of Washington climate scientist David Battisti looked at 23 of the best computational models of the climate available to predict the effect of climate change on global crop yields by the end of this century.
The results?
Our results show that it is highly likely (greater than 90% chance) that growing season temperatures by the end of the 21st century will exceed even the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006 for most of the tropics and subtropics. Presently there are more than 3 billion people living in the tropics and subtropics, many of whom live on under $2 per day and depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihoods (4). With growing season temperatures rising beyond historical bounds, the inevitable question arises: Will people in these regions have sufficient access to food to meet population- and income-driven growth in demand in the future, and thus to achieve food security?
So what? We're (humanity) totally doomed.
Their conclusions with regard to agriculture are sobering. "In the past, heat waves, drought, and food shortages have hit particular regions," says Battisti. But the future will be different: "Yields are going to be down every place." Heat will be the main culprit. "If you look at extreme high temperatures so far observed—basically since agriculture started—the worst summers on record have been mostly because of heat," not drought, he says.The models predict that by 2090, the average summer temperature in France will be 3.7°C above the 20th century average. Elevated temperatures not only cause excess evaporation but also speed up plant growth with consequent reductions in crop yields, the authors note. Although rising temperatures may initially boost food production in temperate latitudes by prolonging the growing season, Battisti and Naylor say crops will eventually suffer unless growers develop heat-resistant versions that don't need a lot of water. "You have to go back at least several million years before you find … temperatures" comparable to those being predicted, Battisti says.
Developing such crops, even with genetic engineering let alone just with 'organic' selective breeding, is far from certain. And then, there's this:
A major lesson from this case and the recent food crisis is that regional disruptions can easily become global in character. Countries often respond to production and price volatility by restricting trade or pursuing large grain purchases in international markets—both of which can have destabilizing effects on world prices and global food security. In the future, heat stress on crops and livestock will occur in an environment of steadily rising demand for food and animal feed worldwide, making markets more vulnerable to sharp price swings. High and variable prices are most damaging to poor households that spend the majority of their incomes on staple foods
Doomed.
And remember, according to some of the best observations, climate change isn't something we can prevent. Climate change is already occurring.
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2
No, Will, it will not. Nope. Even Canada is doomed. Want to know why? Grab a globe. Check out the latitude of France and compare it to that of France.
3
There will be greater impetus to make efficient, cost-effective desalination plants for irrigation to compensate for the crop yield issues. This may in turn solve the clean-drinking-water problem most developing countries (and some industrialized ones) have.
5
Simac. This model doesn't even account for dwindling fresh water, only for the effect of heat on plants.
Just like animals, plants can be killed by too high heat--even with water.
Just like animals, plants can be killed by too high heat--even with water.
6
once the street price of tomatoes surpasses that of weed, your local neighborhood hydroponics crew will be only too happy to take up the slack in food production. Drug dealers and the drug trafficking network will save us all.
7
Global warming is a hoax. Or it's all underwater volcanos. It's normal to have warming and cooling cycles. This is being forced on us by environazis.
8
Humanity is not equivalent to civilization. Some form of human DNA will survive the end of civilization, albeit in greatly reduced numbers. The few remaining hunter-gatherers will probably have an advantage, unless we destroy them while trying to burn the last remaining resources on our way out.
9
Just like the Y2K bug catastrophe, any disaster that can be predicted will be prevented.
And I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
And I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
11
Gee, population exceed crop yields...haven't heard that one for about...oh, three centuries...
Goes to prove, all Global Warmers are Crypto-Mathusians.
Gee, population exceed crop yields...haven't heard that one for about...oh, three centuries...
Goes to prove, all Global Warmers are Crypto-Mathusians.
12
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
Oh gheys, I love thee
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
Oh gheys, I love thee
13
Won't there just be a general shift of agricultural production to higher (or lower) latitudes? Here's to Russia and Canada, the new breadbaskets of the world!
14
So whats the point in trying?
If youve got terminal cancer, why bother quitting smoking?
I dislike doomsday stuff like this because it demoralizes and gives the idea that we might as well keep consuming more and more; why not?
Give me a David Suzuki any day, at least he offers some practical, simple advice. We may be doomed, but at least we can go out fighting, yeah?
If youve got terminal cancer, why bother quitting smoking?
I dislike doomsday stuff like this because it demoralizes and gives the idea that we might as well keep consuming more and more; why not?
Give me a David Suzuki any day, at least he offers some practical, simple advice. We may be doomed, but at least we can go out fighting, yeah?
16
There is a fast fix for global warming, and I don't understand why nobody pays attention to it.
The #1 cause of global warming is livestock (beef and dairy).
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0220/p03s0…
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Ne…
Methane from livestock lasts 8.4 years in the atmosphere compared to over 100 years for carbon dioxide. If we stop eating beef and dairy immediately, not only would world health dramatically improve, we'd almost solve global warming (for now) in one quick stroke.
Eating beef and dairy is killing the planet. Unless we find a way to trap greenhouse gases, the only way to halt global warming in the next 100+ years is to stop eating beef and dairy.
The #1 cause of global warming is livestock (beef and dairy).
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0220/p03s0…
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Ne…
Methane from livestock lasts 8.4 years in the atmosphere compared to over 100 years for carbon dioxide. If we stop eating beef and dairy immediately, not only would world health dramatically improve, we'd almost solve global warming (for now) in one quick stroke.
Eating beef and dairy is killing the planet. Unless we find a way to trap greenhouse gases, the only way to halt global warming in the next 100+ years is to stop eating beef and dairy.
17
Medina -- Got a better one?
Nodz. I'm with you. We should try to slow down or reverse the damage we've done. My point is there is no time to waste, with lofty distant goals of reducing future carbon emissions.
And we should start planning now for the worst (increasingly the most likely) case.
Nodz. I'm with you. We should try to slow down or reverse the damage we've done. My point is there is no time to waste, with lofty distant goals of reducing future carbon emissions.
And we should start planning now for the worst (increasingly the most likely) case.
18
@14, Golob's been taking every imaginable approach to keeping us abreast on this, from practical advice to (as today) getting our attention with the word "doom."
I hope you'll remember a huge number of newspapers dropped David Suzuki's column because he ignored their pleas to quit bumming out readers by constantly warning them--using doom and gloom--of the peril to humanity from the global warming we were causing. This was in the early '70s for crissake. Suzuki didn't stop, and I hope other science writers don't either.
I hope you'll remember a huge number of newspapers dropped David Suzuki's column because he ignored their pleas to quit bumming out readers by constantly warning them--using doom and gloom--of the peril to humanity from the global warming we were causing. This was in the early '70s for crissake. Suzuki didn't stop, and I hope other science writers don't either.
19
Golob, no, I don't have a better one, and neither does Medina. But before I get my panties in a twist, I'd at least like some assurance that the computer model being used to predict the future is at least capable of accurately predicting the past. So far, nobody's been able to do that.
21
@4 - there are these things called mountains. Unlike you, I know exactly where France is and where the flat places in Canada are.
People will just move north and put up minefields to keep the Yanks out.
People will just move north and put up minefields to keep the Yanks out.
22
@ Will in Seattle,
People will just move north and put down minefields to keep the Real Amuricans out.
People will just move north and put down minefields to keep the Real Amuricans out.
24
This is funny Golob - the politicization of science if I've ever seen it.
We can't accurately predict the weather 10 days out, let alone in 10 years. You can impose your own ideals on the third world in some other way if you please.
How much do you think this "climate scientist" mentioned above will rake in new grant money? We need barriers between research scientists and their Medici funders. These studies almost always copy the views of their benefactors.
Shouldn't you disapprove of this, Golob?
We can't accurately predict the weather 10 days out, let alone in 10 years. You can impose your own ideals on the third world in some other way if you please.
How much do you think this "climate scientist" mentioned above will rake in new grant money? We need barriers between research scientists and their Medici funders. These studies almost always copy the views of their benefactors.
Shouldn't you disapprove of this, Golob?
25
Sweet.
Seriously I'm excited by this news, if only because that means we can turn the tables on the OPEC countries and start charging them 3.50/lb for food in retribution for allowing us to suffer with $3.50/gallon gas.
Payback is a bitch.
There will be such tremendous global upheaval before that day though. Imagine India, Pakistan, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, etc etc becoming complete shitholes with average temps above 90F on cold days.
I'm giddy thinking about all the suffering they will surely endure to live the dream.
By then most of the majority of the citizens of the United States will live in the Alaska. Alaska will become extremely ideal what with all that pristine country, timber, lakes and relatively temperate climate. Seattle will become much like Miami with wet warm rainshowers.
Thanks Mr. Golob!
Seriously I'm excited by this news, if only because that means we can turn the tables on the OPEC countries and start charging them 3.50/lb for food in retribution for allowing us to suffer with $3.50/gallon gas.
Payback is a bitch.
There will be such tremendous global upheaval before that day though. Imagine India, Pakistan, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, etc etc becoming complete shitholes with average temps above 90F on cold days.
I'm giddy thinking about all the suffering they will surely endure to live the dream.
By then most of the majority of the citizens of the United States will live in the Alaska. Alaska will become extremely ideal what with all that pristine country, timber, lakes and relatively temperate climate. Seattle will become much like Miami with wet warm rainshowers.
Thanks Mr. Golob!
29
"
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
Oh gheys, I love thee
"
It's not just the gays this sentiment belongs to, Zero Poppers like myself feel just the same.
I'll be dead with no heirs anyway, so I don't care.
Oh gheys, I love thee
"
It's not just the gays this sentiment belongs to, Zero Poppers like myself feel just the same.
30
"...but also speed up plant growth with consequent reductions in crop yields"
What? How does speeding up plant growth reduce crop yields?
What? How does speeding up plant growth reduce crop yields?
31
@21: Oh, that's OK then. So we just need to house and feed 3 billion people from the tropics on the poor soils of the Canadian tundra? Just throw a up a coupla 100 storey apartment buildings with community gardens, it'll be sweet.
32
Do these models compensate for the FACT that temperatures haven't gone up since 1998?
Ooops, don't want to stop your 'right' to control me.
Ooops, don't want to stop your 'right' to control me.
33
So? So tell people to stop having babies and let us all enjoy life to the eventual extinction of humanity.
35
Going vegan will do no good if the crops keep dwindling.
And "confused," early-maturing plants will be small and therefore yield less fruit.
And "confused," early-maturing plants will be small and therefore yield less fruit.
36
A lot of people will die in the developing world and those of us who are fortunate enough to live in relatively well managed democracies will have to eat much lower on the food chain. Beef really isn't a luxury we can afford on a daily basis any longer. Once a week is pushing it. Try veal or Lamb, they're both delicious.
Another huge issue is the availability of fresh water. We're seeing this problem already in Istanbul, we not only experience rolling black outs twice a month during the summer when electricity consumption is up but the entire city ran out of water two years ago for THREE days. With a population growth rate of 3% a year, even the new aqueduct that is being constructed to transport water from an unlucky nearby town won't be able to supply enough water to keep up with demand. As global temperatures continue to rise, water conservation will be a critical component of any urban planning going forward, especially in megacities. Rainwater catchment and treatment projects are sorely needed. Engineers to work on neighborhood sized water treatment systems that are scalable, low-cost. Clean safe water is the new oil.
Another huge issue is the availability of fresh water. We're seeing this problem already in Istanbul, we not only experience rolling black outs twice a month during the summer when electricity consumption is up but the entire city ran out of water two years ago for THREE days. With a population growth rate of 3% a year, even the new aqueduct that is being constructed to transport water from an unlucky nearby town won't be able to supply enough water to keep up with demand. As global temperatures continue to rise, water conservation will be a critical component of any urban planning going forward, especially in megacities. Rainwater catchment and treatment projects are sorely needed. Engineers to work on neighborhood sized water treatment systems that are scalable, low-cost. Clean safe water is the new oil.
38
Doom is never so cut and dried as this prediction. May I refer you to this essay:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2…
about the real-time monotony of doom.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2…
about the real-time monotony of doom.
40
Jonathan,
It seems to me that the problem isn't necessarily one of greenhouse gasses, per se, but of energy itself- with sufficient available energy, re-binding CO2 -pulling it out of the atmosphere- is not difficult... plants do it all day, every day. As I understand it, the main issues would be raw energy itself, and the scale on which carbon fixation would have to take place to slow/mitigate the effects on worldwide temperature. Is it concieveable that with some (currently) unimaginably large engergy source (nuclear fusion, solar-collecting satellite, geothermal), it would be possible for us to, in essence, "scrub" atmospheric CO2?
Or is there a hurdle I haven't even thought of?
It seems to me that the problem isn't necessarily one of greenhouse gasses, per se, but of energy itself- with sufficient available energy, re-binding CO2 -pulling it out of the atmosphere- is not difficult... plants do it all day, every day. As I understand it, the main issues would be raw energy itself, and the scale on which carbon fixation would have to take place to slow/mitigate the effects on worldwide temperature. Is it concieveable that with some (currently) unimaginably large engergy source (nuclear fusion, solar-collecting satellite, geothermal), it would be possible for us to, in essence, "scrub" atmospheric CO2?
Or is there a hurdle I haven't even thought of?
42
@9
re:heirs
hey pizzaguy,
don't forget those microbes that ooze out of your pustulent asshole every few weeks. Those little critters will inherit the world you leave them...
re:heirs
hey pizzaguy,
don't forget those microbes that ooze out of your pustulent asshole every few weeks. Those little critters will inherit the world you leave them...
43
The very rich, those people who will live in relative comfort with a private security force and the control of governments, they will will be even better off while the rest of us are fighting for scraps in the toxic waste heaps.
The government leaders continue to make decisions for just the benefit of those few, even as they become fewer and more powerful.
The government leaders continue to make decisions for just the benefit of those few, even as they become fewer and more powerful.
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