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News & ArtsTuesday, December 30, 2008
Money Nowhere Near Safe
Posted by Charles Mudede on Tue, Dec 30, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Month-to-month decliners were led by Detroit, which fell 4.5%, and San Francisco, which dropped 4.2%. Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington had their largest monthly declines on record.I'm simply amazed. Homes in San Francisco losing not a little but a lot (a hell of a lot) of value. I thought that market was recession-proof. I see I thought wrong.For the seventh-straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year price drop. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 33% and 32%, respectively, from a year ago. San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles and San Diego followed, with declines between 27% and 31%.
Year-over-year, Dallas and Charlotte again had the best relative performance, with declines of 3% and 4.4%, respectively.
Three new markets joined the group of areas posting double-digit declines from a year ago - Atlanta, Seattle and Portland showed drops of 11%, 10% and 10%, respectively.
1
Wait until you see the 20 to 40 percent drops in Miami.
Now those will make your head spin in 2009.
Now those will make your head spin in 2009.
6
It's misleading. The numbers include the whole SF Metro Area, including the East Bay and even some exurbs... places where developers built up huge houses and huge bubbles.
7
And the bottom is no where in site.
I've always been told rent was "throwing money away" and have come close to buying on several occasions. Now renting looks like a great bargin.
I've always been told rent was "throwing money away" and have come close to buying on several occasions. Now renting looks like a great bargin.
8
@7 and renting will be a great bargain until 20% down 30 year fixed mortgage rates come in line with rental rates. if you can even qualify for a 30 year fixed.
9
I think some of those stats are referring to the SF Bay Area, which has been hit really hard overall. San Francisco home prices are down over 12 months (the worst estimates I've read are -8.9%), but to put it into perspective, they'd still have to drop another 40% to put them in reach of the city's mean income earners. In other words, prices in the City are down, but still hugely supported by a tight and desirable housing market.*
The more immediate worry here is that, counterintuitive to those not familiar with a market like ours, the housing slump is also driving rents way up, adding insult to injury for those in financial distress.
Five years ago I couldn't have afforded something in Oakland's most crime riddled neighborhood, now I'm actually cruising their MLS in my downtime.
*Don't get me wrong, I wish there was SF property within my reach (about 20-30% higher than the mean income), but it just isn't even close. The studio, eh, I mean "open floor plan" condos at the end of my block all sold within a month of completion this summer, cheapest unit was close to $550k.
The more immediate worry here is that, counterintuitive to those not familiar with a market like ours, the housing slump is also driving rents way up, adding insult to injury for those in financial distress.
Five years ago I couldn't have afforded something in Oakland's most crime riddled neighborhood, now I'm actually cruising their MLS in my downtime.
*Don't get me wrong, I wish there was SF property within my reach (about 20-30% higher than the mean income), but it just isn't even close. The studio, eh, I mean "open floor plan" condos at the end of my block all sold within a month of completion this summer, cheapest unit was close to $550k.
11
Socket Site's got some good excerpts (with their usual caveat about the numbers relating to the MSA as a whole, not just SF proper):
The bottom third (under $361,865 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from September to October (down 42.1% YOY); the middle third fell 2.7% from September to October (down 27.6% YOY); and the top third (over $616,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.7% from September to October (down 15.7% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to April 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to October 2004 levels.
The bottom third (under $361,865 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from September to October (down 42.1% YOY); the middle third fell 2.7% from September to October (down 27.6% YOY); and the top third (over $616,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.7% from September to October (down 15.7% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to April 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to October 2004 levels.
12
I'd like to add, that -8.9 figure was something I actually looked up. I've been told anecdotally that prices are down overall in the City less than 2%. I'm not an expert by any means, despite my mother and sister being in real estate, but I'm just not seeing any "deals" in this damn town.
13
@12, mostly because people are either in denial about their ability to sell (which is contingent on the other party getting financing) or there just aren't as many people looking to sell.
14
save up now.
by June 2009 they'll have 4.5 percent FHA loans if you can scrape up the down payment.
but don't bite until they announce that, and remember that everyone will be rushing around trying to buy then, so do all the grunt work to qualify now.
it will take a few months to do that, and figure you should start looking for a place around late April at the earliest.
Except Miami - they've got a lot more down to go.
by June 2009 they'll have 4.5 percent FHA loans if you can scrape up the down payment.
but don't bite until they announce that, and remember that everyone will be rushing around trying to buy then, so do all the grunt work to qualify now.
it will take a few months to do that, and figure you should start looking for a place around late April at the earliest.
Except Miami - they've got a lot more down to go.
16
Seattle house price drops are tragic, if you're a tool who is looking to coast on a permanent 20% annual increase forever. Otherwise, they've dropped back to where they were in 2006. Big fucking deal.
17
These articles are total bullshit.
A very modest house in West Hell-LAy is nearly a million even after these so-called tewwible "month-to-month declines." This is a huge area and the median salary is like $50K.
Even in my somewhat marginal neighborhood (West Seattle--High Point) a decent house is over $500K.
I'm starting to think this whole financial crisis is as big a fraud as the "boom" that preceded it. I've no doubt that people who've been laid off are going through hard times. But how does one explain the fact that the malls and restaurants are packed balls-to-the-wall every weekend?
Have people become total solipsist economic kamikazes?
A very modest house in West Hell-LAy is nearly a million even after these so-called tewwible "month-to-month declines." This is a huge area and the median salary is like $50K.
Even in my somewhat marginal neighborhood (West Seattle--High Point) a decent house is over $500K.
I'm starting to think this whole financial crisis is as big a fraud as the "boom" that preceded it. I've no doubt that people who've been laid off are going through hard times. But how does one explain the fact that the malls and restaurants are packed balls-to-the-wall every weekend?
Have people become total solipsist economic kamikazes?
19
It's not just the East Bay, or 'all those overbuilt places that aren't in the precious pretty City of San Francisco'
DQNews has detailed information down to zip code at www.dqnews.com. They supply most of the California newspapers with data, and have for years, and have coverage on other areas (such as Seattle)
DQNews has detailed information down to zip code at www.dqnews.com. They supply most of the California newspapers with data, and have for years, and have coverage on other areas (such as Seattle)
20
All that equity was financing an entire layer of the economy. Bye Bye! I have to say, the reason I left the Bay Area was because blue collar housing was disappearing, just the way it started to disappear here. As painful as this draw down is, I think we needed it to re-evaluate what is affordable to society as a whole.
21
@20 and we can only do that if prices are allowed to fall naturally. but some democrats want to put a price floor down.
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