The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper: Slog: Election

The City of Portland, Oregon Should Run for Washington Lieutenant Governor

Goldy — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:36:52 -0700

On tomorrow's ballot, the city of Portland, Oregon will decide whether to fluoridate its drinking water supply, a measure that a recent SurveyUSA poll suggests is losing by a double-digit margin. Good news for dentists, but fucking crazy. So crazy, in fact, that it qualifies the entire city of Portland to win the SECB endorsement for Lieutenant Governor.

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In Which I Do Not Declare My Candidacy for Seattle City Council

Goldy — Fri, 17 May 2013 14:35:51 -0700

Later this afternoon, just before the deadline, I will not file to run against four-term incumbent Seattle City Council member Richard Conlin. And believe it or not, it was a very difficult decision that I've been struggling with for weeks.

Seriously.

After nine years of covering Washington state and local politics I've come to the conclusion that Seattle can no longer wait on Olympia to address our problems. Our state's inability to fix its longterm structural revenue deficit dictates a gradual but relentless reduction in the services and infrastructure investments the state can provide. Whatever the result at the polls, unless and until the state finds a way to grow revenue somewhat commensurate with the economy, we will inevitably get the Republican agenda by default. And unable to maintain the transportation, education, and other amenities sufficient to preserve Washington's economic competitiveness, our economy will ultimately sputter and stagnate.

Washington is a state teetering on the edge of decline.

Meanwhile, the "fuck Seattle" attitude that permeates much of the rest of the state, combined with Republicans' knee-jerk opposition to taxes of all kinds for any reason under any circumstances, assures that Olympia cannot be counted on even to grant us the authority to tax ourselves to meet our own needs.

But there is hope. Seattle is a compassionate city, a progressive city, a smart city. But above all, Seattle is an affluent city. And while the revenue options at our disposal may not be the ones we'd prefer, we are wealthy enough to use the options we have to invest in the human and physical infrastructure we need to assure economic growth and prosperity now and in the future. That is, assuming we have political leaders with the vision to embrace a newly self-sufficient Seattle, and the communications skills to sell that vision to voters.

Which we don't.

That is why (besides all the usual narcissistic bullshit that is inherent in politics) I seriously considered challenging Conlin: Because Seattle needs and deserves more than the caretaker council that Conlin has come to epitomize. We need to invest in our children, in our transit, in our roads, and sidewalks, and bikeways now, while we can still afford to, before our economy is dragged down by the rest of the state. If we act proactively while we still have an economy capable of sustaining such investments, we can sustain Seattle's competitiveness, and perhaps even drag the rest of the state kicking and screaming with us.

For example: Seattle desperately needs to invest in the one education reform that everybody agrees works: High quality universal preschool for all three- and four-year-olds.

Despite their stated intentions, lawmakers will never implement universal preschool at the state level because Olympia will never be able to bring itself to raise the tax revenue necessary to pay for it. But we can do it ourselves here in Seattle for approximately $50 to $80 million a year, a bargain considering the extraordinary results and savings it returns. Nothing would do more to close the achievement gap than high quality universal preschool. And had I run for the council, I would have promised to shepherd a Universal Preschool Levy onto the ballot by 2015.

That is the type of proactive investment that Seattle needs its council to champion—on schools, on housing, on transit, and on any number of issues. But time is running out. Boeing is dismantling its presence in our region piece by piece in its inexorable march toward assembling a non-union workforce. The University of Washington—an institution that should serve as a local incubator of technological and economic innovation—is in the process of being defunded by a state that has abandoned its commitment to maintaining an affordable, first rate, public university system. Meanwhile, Seattle is largely pinning its crucial South Lake Union redevelopment plans on the prospects of a single tenant—Amazon—a retailer with tiny margins in a cyclical market. Should Amazon ever hit upon hard times the resulting glut of vacant office space would depress new construction throughout the city, and with it city coffers.

The question is not whether Seattle can afford to invest in things like universal preschool, light rail expansion, and dedicated bikeways. The question is: Can we afford not to make these investments before the window of opportunity closes?

Personally, I've got nothing against Conlin. But over his 16 years on the council he has never displayed the kind of vision that our city needs to take control of its own future, nor frankly, the leadership skills sufficient to justify rewarding him with a fifth four-year term. And that is why I considered challenging Conlin, however quixotic that challenge might have been.

Over the past few days I lined up a consultant and secured almost $8,000 in pledges so that I'd at least have the money to get a campaign up and running out of the gate. I talked with Seattle Ethics & Elections to clear the legality of a working political journalist running a political campaign. And I sought out advice from the local political minds I trust the most. Most urged me to run, though most were bluntly honest that I didn't stand a very good chance. Not no chance—about ten percent seemed to be the consensus. And that was good enough for me.

But while I wasn't afraid of losing, I was afraid of not giving my supporters and contributors their money's worth. A real citywide campaign costs real money—at least $100,000 if not twice that—and raising real money requires several hours a day of call time. I could have run the kind of no-cost campaign where you just show up at forums and endorsement interviews, and make your case. But no matter how serious my message that still would have made my candidacy a joke. And as much as I enjoy a good joke, I didn't want to be one.

Had this been a publicly financed election I would have filed today and run to win. But given the competing demands of fundraising and my already demanding full-time job, I realized that I could not run a serious campaign. And I was unwilling to take money from contributors without giving them a serious campaign in return. While my bosses at The Stranger were fully supportive of my plans to run, we never discussed the prospect of taking a leave of absence, because quite frankly, I couldn't afford to take one. Like many other would be candidates, I was simply too poor to take the plunge.

It's disappointing, because apart from the dreaded call time I think I really would have enjoyed the campaign. And scoff all you want, I honestly believe that I would have made an excellent council member. But it's not like I don't already have a significant platform from which to advocate for a proactively progressive agenda. So for now I'll just have to settle for the privilege of covering the campaign on behalf of Seattle's only newspaper.

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No Taxation Without Representation: NYC May Soon Give Lawful Noncitizen Residents the Vote

Goldy — Thu, 09 May 2013 16:34:55 -0700

In a move that is sure to give the Fox News types fits, New York City could soon become the largest jurisdiction in the nation to give non-citizens the right to vote. The proposal, which would allow lawful residents who have resided in the city for more than six months the right to vote in local elections, appears to have a veto-proof majority on the New York City Council.

It may come as a surprise to many to learn that throughout much of US history citizenship and suffrage had little to do with each. After all, natural born and naturalized women were always citizens, yet did not attain the right to vote nationally until the 19th Amendment was ratified in 1920. Meanwhile, most states allowed some sort of noncitizen voting throughout the nation's first century—Arkansas became the last state ban it in 1926. Even today, non-citizens are allowed to vote in local elections in some Maryland municipalities.

We've been trained to think that there's something untoward about non-citizens voting, but if you think about it, what's the big deal? Legal immigrant residents are subject to our laws and feel the impact of our public policies as much as the rest of us. And most importantly: They pay taxes! "No taxation without representation," right? That's a fundamental American ideal that NYC seems about to embrace.

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McGinn Wins!

Goldy — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 12:59:10 -0700

Mayor Mike McGinn won the 43rd Legislative District Democrats mayoral straw poll last night, demonstrating impressive support among people willing to pay two dollars a ballot (with no limit on the number of ballots you can buy) to participate in the 43rd Legislative District Democrats' mayoral straw poll!

Okay, so it's not meaningful in any demographically significant way. But I think it does say something about the character of this race. Namely, that McGinn and his loyal core of supporters are not going down without a fight.

It takes boots on the ground (and a little bit of money) to freep a straw poll, even one as meaningless as this. The 43rd is Ed Murray territory, a district he's represented since 1995. Yet the McGinn camp was determined to deny Murray even this tiny symbolic victory, outpolling him 341 to 236 just for the sake of bragging rights. Meanwhile, none of the other candidates even made an effort.

So while the straw poll is meaningless the effort is not. Right now I just sense that McGinn and Murray are working harder than the other candidates. And if they keep it up, this unscientific straw poll may prove more predictive than it first appears.

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I Guess Our City Council Members Must Be So Great That They're Not Worth Challenging

Goldy — Fri, 12 Apr 2013 10:57:24 -0700

If you thought early fundraising in the mayors race was uninspiring, just take a look at what is happening in the city council elections. Or rather, take a look at what is not happening:

Sally Bagshaw	$47,352
David Ishii	$0
Shane Macomber	$0

Richard Conlin	$68,733
Kshama Sawant	$1,804

Nick Licata	$64,023
Edwin Fruit	$0

Mike O'Brien	$30,373
Albert Shen	$44,757
Sam Bellomio	$0

These are the contribution totals through the end of March, and as you can see, only one of the incumbents is facing a challenger who is bothering to raise any money. Not that money means everything. But past history tells us that it means a lot.

What's odd about this is that unlike some previous elections, none of the incumbents have raised an intimidating war chest. A serious challenger could be dollar competitive. So I'm just a little surprised that more challengers aren't taking advantage of this opportunity.

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Latest Fundraising Reports Reveal That Nobody Wants to Be Mayor

Goldy — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 16:07:37 -0700

Yeah, I know a lot of people say they want to be mayor, but you sure wouldn't know it from the latest anemic fundraising numbers. Council members Bruce Harrell and Tim Burgess led the pack, raising about $29,500 each in March, but that left them both slightly off their February pace. With less than four months to go before the August primary, there's not much separation when it comes to the dollars available to spend.

Candidate	Net Balance	Total Raised	March
Tim Burgess	$86,106	$165,291	$29,568
Mike McGinn	$73,564	$131,187	$22,619
Ed Murray	$66,998	$117,430	$0.00
Charlie Staadecker	$65,900	$109,766	$22,360
Bruce Harrell	$34,607	$48,898	$29,575
Peter Steinbrueck	$30,406	$36,954	$10,504
Kate Martin	$1,675	$2,745	$1,851

Of course, state Senator Ed Murray has been on a fundraising freeze since the start of the legislative session, so assuming the session ever ends, May should be a very good month for him. But nobody else has that excuse. And it's a particularly surprising that Burgess, who's alleged to be a favorite in the business community (i.e. the closest Seattle comes to electing a Republican) hasn't jumped out to a stronger fundraising lead.

I dunno. I was expecting a more energetic race. So far, not so much.

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PDC Investigating Tim Eyman for Flagrantly Violating Public Disclosure Laws

Goldy — Mon, 18 Mar 2013 09:05:21 -0700

After months of I don't know what, the Washington State Public Disclosure commission has finally launched an investigation into allegations that initiative profiteer Tim Eyman and his partners illegally financed their Initiative 517 signature drive with funds raised to gather signatures for Initiative 1185.

As I first detailed back in August, Eyman's signature gathering contractors are accused of running a complicated scheme that attempted to force subcontractors to collect I-517 signatures for free as a condition of employment for collecting signatures on the more lucrative I-1185. The complaint includes affidavits and invoices that suggest canvassers were ultimately paid for I-517 signatures at a time the campaign had reported raising little or no funds.

If proven, these allegations would amount to a flagrant violation of the laws governing the funding and disclosure of such signature drives. Ironically, I-517 would make it easier to run such signature drives in the future.

Personally, I'm not confident that the PDC retains either the resources or the will to thoroughly investigate such a complex operation. So I'm crossing my fingers that they ultimately hand it off to the Attorney General's Office for a proper investigation.

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Republicans for McGinn!

Goldy — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 13:21:29 -0800

I honestly don't think there's a lot of news in yesterday's KING-5/SurveyUSA poll of Seattle's mayoral race. At 34 percent, undecided is by far the most popular choice in the nine-candidate field. After that, Mayor Mike McGinn and former King County Executive Ron Sims (who has yet to declare) are tied at 15 percent, with Tim Burgess, Ed Murray, Peter Steinbrueck, and Bruce Harrell trailing at ten, nine, seven, and five percent respectively. In other words, it's a wide open field. Not exactly a surprise.

Those numbers wouldn't look so awful for Mayor McGinn if he wasn't the incumbent. But he is. So that's not a strong place to start. But it's not hopeless either. Everybody knew McGinn would face a tough fight for reelection. This poll only confirms it.

But if McGinn's level of support in this poll doesn't surprise you, where he's drawing it from might. At 34 percent, McGinn is by far the first choice of Republicans; Burgess is second with 15 percent. Twenty-seven percent of self-described conservatives also support McGinn, far ahead of Sims and Burgess at ten percent each. Weird.

Dom thinks that McGinn's Republican support may be due to leftover street cred from his fight against the viaduct tunnel, which many on the right viewed as a costly boondoggle. And I wonder if McGinn's stubborn (and I'd argue, misguided) defense of the SPD might also gird his support with law-and-order Republicans?

Speculation aside, while Republicans only account for 12 percent of respondents in the KING-5 poll, it's not unreasonable to imagine their support proving to be the tipping point in a nine-way primary, handing McGinn the edge he needs to get through to November. Again, weird. But not beyond the realm of possibilities.

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Mail In Your Goddamn Ballot!

Goldy — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 17:08:30 -0800

Goldy | The Stranger
I've mailed in ballot (hell, this time I've even put a stamp on it). Have you?

Am I better than you? Morally and civically superior? Chances are, I am, considering that I've mailed in my school levy ballot, and judging by the latest ballot return statistics, you probably haven't. As of last count only 87,330 of Seattle's 414,863 registered voters have returned their ballots—that's a pathetic turnout of only 21 percent! And tomorrow is the deadline!

So don't give me the satisfaction of feeling superior to you! If you are registered to vote, fill out your ballot and mail it in now, so that you beat Tuesday's 8 pm postmark deadline. And of course, vote YES on both levies.

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Should Taxpayers Fund Candidates' Bid for Office?

Cienna Madrid — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 11:44:10 -0800

This Wednesday at 6:00 p.m., city officials will host their second panel discussion exploring the topic of publicly financing city campaigns at the main branch of the Seattle Public Library.

I know public campaign financing hardly seems as sexy as the topic du jour, sexy sexy school levies, but consider what I wrote in last week's paper:

Why publicly finance campaigns? Some people point to Seattle's 2011 election to illustrate the problem. During that election cycle, Seattle had fewer candidates running for office than any time since 1995, a drop in small contributions, a record high in the average size of contributions, top donors contributing almost exclusively to incumbents—and all this on top of massive $100,000 incumbent war chests scaring off challengers.

Despite their huge fundraising advantages, council members spent, on average, just $201,000 on their campaigns in 2011. By contrast, both 2008 public-financing models would cap contributions at $250,000, meaning participating candidates should have plenty of funds to launch viable campaigns.

All four city council members up for re-election this year are currently running unchallenged. In addition, last Friday city council member and mayoral candidate Tim Burgess borrowed a page from the public campaign finance playbook with an email blast that asked supporters to contribute just $10 to his campaign. (That tactic is known as the $10 x 1,000 pledge and it's one of two public funding models previously considered by the Seattle Ethics and Elections Commission.)

Campaign finance reform is up for debate during this election cycle—a measure for publicly financed campaigns may even end up on the primary or general election ballot. Get in on the ground level discussion this Wednesday at the main branch of the Seattle Public Library (1000 Fourth Ave), from 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

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Rob McKenna Blames Me for Single-Handedly Costing Him the Election

Goldy — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 15:25:17 -0800

As Dom has already posted, Rob McKenna blames Seattle for his gubernatorial defeat. "It's a Seattle problem," McKenna told the P-I's Joel Connelly, emphasizing the beating he took in two particular LDs:

In figures crunched by McKenna and his campaign chief Randy Pepple, the 36th and 43rd Districts, covering much of northwest and central Seattle, gave Inslee a combined margin of 97,600 votes as he won statewide by 94,000 vote. ... Overall, the Attorney General received just 21 percent of the vote in Washington’s largest city.

Huh. A few thoughts. The first being: You're welcome. For in blaming Seattle for his ass-whooping, McKenna is also indirectly crediting The Stranger's political writers for effectively educating their Seattle readers. And while Eli certainly deserves a share of the glory, he doesn't need it, so I'm claiming all of it for myself. I SINGLEHANDEDLY COST ROB MCKENNA THE ELECTION! You're welcome. (Also, how'd all those free Seattle Times ads work out for you, Rob?)

Second: What incredibly stupid math. I suppose you could blame the 36th and 43rd for the combined 97,600 vote margin they handed Jay Inslee, or you could blame King County as a whole for the much larger 234,166 vote deficit McKenna accumulated there. The point is, as poorly as McKenna did in Seattle, he could have overcome that margin had he done just a little better everywhere else. For example, McKenna trailed Rossi's 2008 percentages in a number of red counties (against an incumbent) while trailing Rossi's 2004 performance almost across the board. McKenna proved to be less appealing to Republicans than Rossi.

Third: Why does McKenna hate black people? He's gonna hand the credit to 36th and the 43rd, where he got 23.9 percent and 17.3 percent of the vote respectively? Well what about the culturally diverse 37th, where McKenna only got 16.9 percent of the vote? Sure, it's convenient to point to the 36th and 43rd because their margins add up to more than that 94,000 number, but it's not particularly meaningful in itself.

Throughout his campaign, McKenna displayed a fondness for numbers but an inability to actually understand them, a failure demonstrated once again in his post-election analysis. There was nothing particularly remarkable about McKenna's Seattle performance. In fact, he actually outperformed Rossi's 2008 Seattle results, both percentage-wise and in raw numbers.

So while I'd love to take credit for his defeat, McKenna's problem wasn't The Stranger, and it wasn't Seattle. It was McKenna.

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Vote Yes on the School Levies!

The Stranger Election Control Board — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:04:50 -0800

Holy crap, there's another fucking election!?!! YES! Seattle Public Schools' operations and capital levies are up for renewal in a February 12 special election, and we at the SECB strongly urge you to vote no.

Ha-ha! Just kidding! Vote yes! We at the SECB have never met a tax measure we didn't like—especially property taxes, which most of us will never directly pay, because we're all too busy spending our meager paychecks on booze, pot, and gay pornography to ever save up enough money to buy homes of our own.

But really... vote yes on both of them. These school levies are crucial to making sure Seattle's students get a quality education.

First, the three-year operations levy covers 27 percent of Seattle Public Schools' day-to-day operations, including teachers, textbooks, bus transportation, and student activities. Slashing a quarter of our schools' funding would be absolutely unthinkable. So don't even think it.

READ OUR WHOLE FUCKING ENDORSEMENT >>

McGinn Brings Out His Base as He Launches Bid for Reelection

Goldy — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 17:05:00 -0800

Goldy | The Stranger
Surprise! Mayor Mike McGinn is running for reelection!

In what can safely be described as one of the least surprising news conferences of the year, Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn announced today that he will run for reelection. I mean, it's not like it was a secret or anything.

Still, an enthusiastic crowd of supporters and a gaggle of reporters packed into a small, hot room at the Filipino Community Center to hear McGinn tell them what he'd already told Dom: "I'm here to announce I'm running for reelection for mayor!" Cue the applause.

Of course, there's never much news at "news conferences" like this, but there was certainly a lot of color, demonstrating the strong support that McGinn still maintains in many of Seattle's minority communities. Campaign co-chair and El Centro De La Raza executive director Estela Ortega emceed the event, describing McGinn as "the first mayor who has come into communities of color and asked us what our needs are." Take that, Norm Rice.

For a city with a reputation for being one of the whitest in America, you certainly wouldn't know it from the folks in the room. McGinn won big in 2009 within the immigrant and minority communities of Southeast Seattle, and he may have to run even stronger here to have a hope of winning reelection. It's a base that none of his challengers (so far) can lay claim to, one that consultants and pundits ignore at their peril when handicapping this race.

When McGinn finally took the podium from his co-chairs he launched into a recitation of his accomplishments as mayor, a list that some people might find surprisingly long. Yeah, I know, McGinn's administration has supposedly been a "disaster." That's the narrative his opponents take for granted. But actually, Seattle has done quite well during his tenure.

While the county and state (and much of the rest of the nation) are still struggling to make ends meet, McGinn has consistently balanced the city budget without major cuts to social or other services, and without the bitter political wrangling we're accustomed to seeing elsewhere. Seattle is even on target to rebuilding its rainy day fund to pre-Great Recession levels. Not bad. And during McGinn's term in office, home prices, employment, manufacturing, and tax revenues have all increased faster than the national average.

Not exactly a disaster.

Sure, McGinn failed to block the tunnel, but he surrendered graciously once the people spoke at the polls. And it's certainly fair to criticize McGinn for failing to adequately address the cultural and management problems at SPD. There were also a handful of early initiatives (seawall and transit come to mind) that the council swiftly killed.

But after a year or so McGinn seemed to learn the ropes, and his accomplishments since then have been many, including a doubling of the Families and Education Levy, passage of Seawall and Library levies, and his shepherding of the Sodo arena deal that now looks likely to bring the Sonics back to Seattle for the 2013-2014 season. Add in the sick-leave ordinance, the mayor's veto of aggressive panhandling legislation, and successful starts to his school attendance and broadband initiatives, and McGinn starts to look quite accomplished.

As for the future, McGinn laid out a handful of priorities for his second term, including finding a Seattle-funded source (separate from Sound Transit) for investing in a transit infrastructure, and an initiative near and dear to my heart: A new early learning initiative aimed at gradually implementing universal access to high-quality preschool for all of Seattle's children. If the state as a whole won't fund this obvious reform, we should do it ourselves, I figure. And apparently the mayor agrees.

I know the conventional wisdom is that McGinn is "embattled," and that the odds are against him winning reelection. But at today's news conference he didn't have the feel of a politician who was beat.

McGinn won in 2009 not on the basis of his ideas—voters ultimately rejected his trademark issue—but because he was the only candidate to run with the support of an actual grassroots base. And judging from the people who packed the room today, that base is largely intact.

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It Will Never Be Easy to Vote for a Democrat in Florida

Paul Constant — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 11:41:01 -0800

President Obama won the election in Florida, but if the state had actually done its goddamned job and allowed every citizen to have their vote, he probably would've won by a much larger margin. ThinkProgress linked to a study by Ohio State University that concludes:

[A]s many as 49,000 people across Central Florida were discouraged from voting because of long lines on Election Day, according to a researcher at Ohio State University who analyzed election data compiled by the Orlando Sentinel.

This is disgraceful. Every citizen should have the chance to vote. This is arguably the most important duty for any state government, and Florida has made a mockery of it.

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For the First Time in US History, Blacks May Have Voted at a Higher Rate than Whites

Goldy — Thu, 27 Dec 2012 16:54:34 -0800

I blame ACORN:

Blacks voted at a higher rate this year than other minority groups and for the first time in history may also have voted at a higher rate than whites, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data, election day exit poll data and vote totals from selected cities and counties.

Unlike other minority groups whose increasing electoral muscle has been driven mainly by population growth, blacks’ rising share of the vote in the past four presidential elections has been the result of rising turnout rates.

See, this is exactly what conservative columnist George Will warned about when he recently argued that high voter turnout rates are bad, because Hitler! This election was just like 1930s Germany, only peaceful, Democratic, and without all the Jew killing.

The good news for Republicans is that Hispanic and Asian turnout still lags far behind the general population. The bad news for Republicans is that this leaves these increasingly Democratic groups with plenty of room to grow their electoral influence beyond mere population growth alone.

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Rep. Ed Markey to Run for John Kerry's US Senate Seat

Goldy — Thu, 27 Dec 2012 12:23:15 -0800

US Representative Ed Markey (D-MA), the longest serving member of the Massachusetts congressional delegation, and one of the most powerful members of the US House, has announced his intention to run for the US Senate seat being vacated by soon-to-be Secretary of State John Kerry:

“With Senator Kerry’s departure, Massachusetts voters will decide once again whether we want a Senator who will fight for all our families or one who supports a Republican agenda that benefits only the powerful and well-connected,” Markey said. “I refuse to allow the Tea Party-dominated Republican Party to lead us off the fiscal cliff and into recession. I won’t allow the [National Rifle Association] to obstruct an assault weapons ban yet again. I will not sit back and allow oil and coal industry lobbyists to thwart our clean energy future or extremists to restrict women’s rights and health care.”

Yes, even being a junior member of a Democratic controlled Senate is probably preferable to being in the minority leadership of a Republican controlled House, but for a congressman who was first elected to the House in 1976, this couldn't have been an easy decision. And it may well be the Democrats' best shot at preventing recently defeated Republican Senator Scott Brown from returning to office. So this is pretty good news for Dems.

Kudos to Markey for being a team player, and doing what's best for the Democratic Party and the people of Massachusetts, instead of just playing it safe with his own career.

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Senator Rodney Tom: 48th LD Voters Can Go Fuck Themselves

Goldy — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 16:27:52 -0800

One fact that cannot be overstated in discussing the Republican state Senate coup, is that Senator Rodney Tom was elected as a Democrat from an overwhelmingly Democratic legislative district. How Democratic are 48th LD voters? Just take a look at these results from the 2012 election:

61.4% - Barack Obama (D), President
64.5% - Maria Cantwell (D), US Senate
52.9% - Jay Inslee (D), Governor
55.8% - Bob Ferguson (D), Attorney General
51.8% - Kathleen Drew (D), Secretary of State
69.3% - Ross Hunter (D), State Rep. Position 1
61.4% - Cyrus Habib (D), State Rep. Position 2

Of particular note is the last name on that list. Cyrus Habib won 61.4 percent of the vote in a race for an open seat to become our nation's first Iranian American state legislator. He's also blind. It's probably safe to say that neither Habib's blindness nor his ethnicity gave him an unfair electoral advantage. But the "D" next to his name surely did.

This isn't a fluke. 48th LD voters elect Democrats for a reason. And these Democratic voters expect their elected officials to work to implement a Democratic agenda, not impede it.

I don't bring up his district's demographics in order to threaten Tom. It's too late for that. Tom will face a serious, well-financed Democratic challenger. That die has been cast. Rather, I bring this up to emphasize how much he has violated the will of the voters who elected him. Nobody expects their state senator to be a rubber stamp for their party leadership. Legislators need to strike a balance between personal judgment and popular will. But the very least a legislator owes his constituents is to caucus with the party he claims to belong to, and let the organizing chips fall where they may.

Anything less is false advertising, and a big "fuck you" to voters.

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WA State GOP Chair Hopes Dems Will "Forget to Vote"

Goldy — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 10:12:58 -0800

Yeah, I know it's a joke, and that my observation is a cliché, but many a truth is said in jest:

Besides, [Washington State GOP chair] Wilbur quipped, "Our hope is people smoke enough pot, they'll forget to vote, and then we'll win."

But isn't that always the Republican electoral strategy? Hoping that enough folks on the other side won't (or can't) vote? Sure, it's a "quip." But it's also a tiny window into the mindset of what's wrong with the Republican Party.

They don't really seem to care if their ideology appeals to the majority of Americans as long as it appeals to the majority who vote. And that strikes me as a losing strategy in the long run.

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Washington Among the Tops in Voter Turnout

Goldy — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 15:26:11 -0800

In certifying the 2012 election results yesterday, Secretary of State Sam Reed kvelled about Washington State's voter turnout, which at 81.25 percent may be "possibly the best in the country this year."

Yeah, possibly. Despite all the whining over our slow results, a dozen or so other states have yet to certify, so not all the data is in. And even then, Washington may only best the nation in turnout as a percentage of registered voters. As a percentage of eligible voters, Washington's 65.05 percent turnout rate is still very good, but nothing extraordinary. According to the latest tally from the United States Election Project at George Mason University, five other states have already reported higher turnout as a percentage of eligible voters than Washington, including both Iowa and New Hampshire, both at over 70 percent.

So yeah, Washington is doing a great job turning out voters. But we still need to do a better job registering them if we truly want to lead the nation in voter participation.

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In Which Goldy Agrees With a Republican

Goldy — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 11:54:34 -0800

Incoming Secretary of State Kim Wyman makes a good first impression:

Just as we have seen every election cycle, newspaper editorial pages, political reporters and candidates are once again promoting a new requirement that all ballots be received by county elections offices by Election Day in order to count. Our Legislature has considered this more restrictive deadline, but on a bipartisan basis has not adopted this change — correctly, in our view.

Hey... that's just like something I might have written on the call to change the ballot deadline, were I writing for a newspaper that wouldn't let me use the word "fuck." Wyman explains that counting our ballots accurately is more important than counting them fast, and that moving the ballot deadline to received by election day would not fulfill the "expectation that nearly all ballots would be counted by election night." And the transition would almost surely disenfranchise some voters through no fault of their own.

I was never quite sure why out-going Secretary of State Sam Reed was so obsessed with moving the ballot deadline, but regardless, it's good to know that Wyman is squarely on the data-driven side of this issue.

The SECB did not endorse Wyman, but we didn't trash-talk her either. Faced with two "competent, dedicated public servants [who] both display an encyclopedic knowledge of elections procedures," we opted for the Democrat. But we were impressed with Wyman, and remain confident that she will stand apart from her voter-suppressing Republican colleagues in other states.

And now that our newly elected Republican Secretary of State has spoken firmly against moving the ballot deadline, perhaps our state's editorial boards will finally shut the fuck up.

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Hey... Where Are All Those Big Charter Schools and Two-Thirds-Supermajority-to-Raise-Taxes Celebrations?

Goldy — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 11:07:38 -0800

Last night was a bit of a party. At the same time hundreds of same-sex couples lined up outside the county administration building to be among the first in the state licensed to marry, marijuana legalization advocates were gathering beneath the Space Needle to celebrate its legal recreational use. These were two hard fought grassroots campaigns, and two well earned celebrations. Hooray for freedom!

But you know what we didn't see last night? Crowds gathering to celebrate the enactment of Initiatives 1240 and 1185, the charter schools and two-thirds supermajority initiatives. Because while both had plenty of money behind them, neither campaign ever had any grassroots support.

That's something lawmakers might want to keep in mind before they claim some sort of popular mandate for either.

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How Accurate Are Our Elections? (Hint: Very)

Goldy — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 16:53:30 -0800

I was looking forward to the hand recount of the razor-close Senate race in Washington's 17th Legislative District, not because I expected Democrat Tim Probst to jump into the lead (he didn't) but because hand recounts are an opportunity to measure the accuracy and integrity of our ballot tabulation systems.

Out of 58,994 ballots cast, Republican incumbent Don Benton now leads Probst by a mere 74 votes, down a net four from the original tally. Probst picked up eight votes from the hand recount, Benton picked up four. According to Clark County Elections supervisor Tim Likness, all 12 of these new votes came from ballots "where the voter made very light marks and/or used a pencil to mark their ballot." These were ballots on which the optical scanners did not detect a vote.

"This is one of the reason for there being a manual ballot count when an election contest is very close," Likness explained via email. "The human eye did indeed identify these as valid votes even though our voting system could not."

To be clear, that's an adjustment of only 12 votes out 58,994 ballots cast: That's a 0.02 percent tabulation error rate. Hand recounts in legislative races are mandatory when the margin is less than 150 votes and 0.25 percent.

Nine additional ballots have been sent to the canvasing board that Likness says either contain marks that are "so light as to possibly not to be considered a vote," or on which voters changed their vote in a way where voter intent could not easily be determined. But it wouldn't be fair to categorize these as tabulation errors.

Every election season I hear conspiracy theories about elections fraud and crooked tabulation software. But on top of all the routine audits, these occasional hand recounts are the ultimate test of the accuracy and integrity of our ballot tabulation systems. And it's a test that no Washington election has ever failed.

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King County Elections Counted a Record Number of Ballots at a Record Pace

Goldy — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 14:28:08 -0800

King County Elections (KCE) certified its results earlier this week (pending one automatic recount in the 47th LD), and despite the annual editorial whining about slow ballot counts, KCE set new records for speed and efficiency, while enhancing voter access and convenience. (I'd mention accuracy too, but there's zero evidence that KCE's ballot tallies have ever been anything but accurate.)

Thanks to streamlined procedures at its new Renton facility, and a voter outreach program that succeeded in encouraging more voters to vote early, KCE counted a record 556,083 ballots on election night—more than twice the election night count from 2010, and significantly more than any election night count even from before the county switched to all vote by mail. Despite its reputation for lagging behind the rest of the state, KCE's election night report equalled 57 percent of its total ballots counted, not far off the 61 percent election night mark for the state as a whole. Not too shabby considering that KCE handles more mail-in ballots than any other jurisdiction in the nation.

Yet another sign of KCE's successful voter education efforts, the county also hit new post-all-vote-by-mail lows for the percentage of ballots rejected due to missing/mismatched signatures and late postmarks. The percentage of voters forgetting to sign their ballots was down 39 percent from 2010, the percentage of ballots that arrived with late postmarks was down 79 percent. Of the county's 22,137 challenged ballots, almost 60 percent were eventually "cured," up from a more typical 50 percent rate. Almost 98.5 percent of the 993,908 ballots received were ultimately verified and counted.

And finally, at 83.58 percent of ballots counted to registered voters, King County had one of the highest turnout rates in the state. Statewide, the average was just 81.25 percent; 80.26 percent outside of King County.

KCE generated tons of unflattering headlines back in 2004 when a statistical tie in the governor's race uncovered numerous procedural errors. Since then we've moved to all vote-by-mail, a new, expanded elections center, and all new elections procedures. And voters have heard little about these improvements, I suppose because "King County Elections Counted Ballots Much as It Should've" doesn't make for much of a sexy headline. But that's pretty much the story from this election.

Elections operations here are faster, more efficient, and more responsive than ever before. And they are getting more so every year.

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The Super Rich Were Astonished that Obama Won

Charles Mudede — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 08:45:18 -0800

You must find the time today to read Ezra Klein's great interview with Chrystia Freeland, an expert of the mindset of the class of people who rule our financial universe and the author of a book I'm going to buy right quick, The Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else. My favorite passages:

CF: There’s a great joke on Wall Street which is that the bet on Romney is Wall Street’s worst bet since the bet on subprime. But I found the hostility towards Obama astonishing. I found the commitment to getting him out astonishing. I found the absolute confidence that it would work astonishing. On that Tuesday, the big Romney backers I was talking to were sure he was going to win. They were all flying into Logan Airport for the victory party. There’s this stunned feeling of how could we be so wrong, and a feeling of alienation.

And..

CF: Let me be clear that I’m not defending any of them. But I think the way it works — and I think Romney’s comments were very telling in this regard — there are two differences in the mind of this class. First, they’re absolutely convinced that they’re not asking for special privileges for themselves. They’re convinced that it just so happens that their self-interest coincides perfectly with the collective interest. That’s where you get this idea of the “job creators”. The view is that to seek a low tax environment or less regulation, that’s not special pleading for yourself, it’s not transactional politics. It’s that this set of rules is the most conducive to economic growth for everybody. It will grow the pie. Now, it also happens to be an incredibly convenient way of thinking. If you’ve developed an ideology that what’s good for you personally also happens to be good for everyone else, that’s quite wonderful because there’s no moral tension.

And..,

CF: To get back to Romney, that’s where you get the belief that being successful in business qualifies you to be president. What’s interesting to me is that if you talk to the billionaires in other countries that have different social orders, you heard different views on this.
Yuri Millner, the Russian billionaire, set up a prize in theoretical physics where he gave three million bucks each to what he thought were the nine best theoretical physicists in the world. The reason he did that, he said, is that he thinks that the way our society allocates brainpower against work is not ideal. He thinks the work he does is kind of boring and humdrum and doesn’t make that much of a difference in the world but leads to these huge rewards, while in his view, the most defining and important work, the work that makes us human, is grappling with understanding the universe. George Soros will say that he thinks the most important human endeavor is to be a philosopher. You encounter that sentiment less often among the anglo saxons, because we’ve persuaded ourselves that the heroes of our social narrative our businesspeople.

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Washington GOPers Blame National Party for McKenna's Loss

Goldy — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 08:44:04 -0800

Jim Brunner has an interesting analysis of the Washington governor's race and the important role get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns played in Democrat Jay Inslee's victory.

Washington Dems spent $2 million on GOTV, hiring 40 paid field organizers, plus another 15 from Inslee's campaign. The Dems made a million phone calls and knocked on 300,000 doors over the final five days of the campaign alone. By comparison, the state Republican Party and the Rob McKenna campaign spent only $300,000 combined on their ground game, hiring just 20 paid field organizers.

So, how do local Republican apologists explain this dramatic mismatch?

The state GOP was left to fend for itself after the Republican National Committee reversed an earlier plan to spend $400,000 on a get-out-the-vote campaign here, [state GOP chair Kirby] Wilbur said. The national Republican Party also declined to spend significant money in Washington's U.S. Senate and House races.

"This get-out-the-vote stuff is not rocket science, but you cannot do it without money," said former state Republican chairman Chris Vance, who said the lack of national GOP spending here was a big change from previous elections.

Uh-huh. Let's be clear. The Republicans didn't lack for money. Rob McKenna and the "independent" campaigns supporting him outspent their Democratic counterparts by about a million and half dollars. So McKenna and the state GOP had plenty of cash available to spend on GOTV. They just didn't.

"They chose to spend money on TV," state Democratic spokesman Benton Strong tells me, while "we invested heavily in a strong, far-reaching get out the vote program. It's a clear difference in what we see as important," says Strong. "For us, relationships with voters are invaluable."

It was also a clear difference in strategy. And the Democratic strategy just proved more effective.

In fact, Washington Dems typically enjoy a huge GOTV advantage. That's one of the reasons I was relatively confident that Inslee's 2-3 point lead in the polls would hold up on election night: With a strong Democratic ground game in place, Democratic turnout was unlikely to be disappointing. And in the end, the three counties that gave Inslee his biggest margins—San Juan, King, and Jefferson—also had some of the highest turnout rates in the state.

Local Republicans can blame the national party all they want, but the Dems simply ran a better campaign. Dems had a better strategy, they had better ads, and in Inslee, they had a better candidate. So all the other excuses Wilbur et al put forth to explain McKenna's loss are just that: Excuses.

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Teabagger Prince Trying to Elect Mitt Romney on an Electoral College Loophole

Paul Constant — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 14:42:16 -0800

Politicus USA says that Big-Time Teabagger Judson Phillips has a plan to get Mitt Romney elected president of the United States of America, regardless of the stupid "will" of the stupid "people."

According to the 12th Amendment, for the Electoral College to be able to select the president, it must have a quorum of two-thirds of the states voting. If enough states refuse to participate, the Electoral College will not have a quorum. If the Electoral College does not have a quorum or otherwise cannot vote or decide, then the responsibility for selecting the president and vice president devolves to the Congress.

The House of Representatives selects the president and the Senate selects the vice president.

Since the Republicans hold a majority in the House, presumably they would vote for Mitt Romney, and the Democrats in the Senate would vote for Joe Biden for vice president.

Can this work?

Sure it can.

Actually, it can't. But, you know, whatever. Now Teabaggers around the country are trying to follow through on Phillips' (unworkable) plan. Because Teabaggers, who remind us very frequently that they care so very much about the Constitution, are trying to use the Constitution to overthrow the results of an election. Let's repeat: 47% of Americans voted for Mitt Romney. That's the will of the people. What they're talking about, in their adorable little outraged language, is basically a coup.

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Guess What Percentage of the Electorate Mitt Romney Won

Paul Constant — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:59:44 -0800

Just fucking guess.

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GOPers Might Want to Stop Blaming Voters If They Want Any Shot at Wooing Them Back

Goldy — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 12:01:25 -0800

I've learned to kinda like former Washington State Republican Party chair Chris Vance. I've chatted with him a number of times on the radio, and found to him to be thoughtful and forthright. And so I was interested to see his initial take on why Republicans underperformed in Washington's recent election:

Clearly, the failure of voters outside Seattle and King County to turn in ballots at the same rate they did four years ago played a major role.

Vance says a lot of other stuff too, but for me, the very phrasing of his conclusion is a window into the cluttered mind of the Republican establishment. It's not our candidates or our platform or even our GOTV effort that's the problem, GOPers keep telling themselves. It's the voters. For example, I've heard a lot of talk from Rs about how they need to woo Latino voters, but very little self-reflection on the economic and immigration policies that have driven Latino voters away.

My take on Rob McKenna's electoral woes (and Vance is really mostly mulling on McKenna's loss), is that a lot of the soft-Dem and independent voters he was counting on just couldn't shake the sense that McKenna would ultimately governor like a Republican. Republicans can whine all they want that this anti-woman/anti-worker characterization of McKenna wasn't fair, but if Republicans can't win statewide races without running away from the Republican platform, well, I think that says more about the failure of the party than it does the voters.

Regardless of whether McKenna really is a different-kinda-Republican, the very fact that he relied on this image to pacify voters is a tacit admission that 21st century Republicanism remains outside the mainstream of Washington politics.

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It's the Closeness of the Race, Not the Speed of the Tally, That Makes Ballot Counting Look Slow

Goldy — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 08:04:01 -0800

For all the bitching about how long it takes to count ballots in Washington State, it turns out we're not so different after all:

Two weeks ago, Barack Obama was triumphantly re-elected as US president. The strange thing is that the votes are still being counted 14 days later.

[...] As several slow-counting big states and cities – most notably in New York and California – continue to report new vote totals, it's increasingly clear that the 2012 election wasn't that close after all.

In fact, in this whole piece on slow vote counting, Washington isn't mentioned at all. Go figure.

The truth is, any jurisdiction with a substantive number of mail-in/absentee and provisional ballots is going to look like it counts ballots slow whenever it has an extremely close race. (And any jurisdiction without a substantive number of mail-in/absentee and provisional ballots is likely suppressing turnout.) Washington had no close races at the federal or statewide level this year, so our ballot counting was plenty fast enough to produce quick and conclusive results.

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GOPers Finally Coming to Terms With Mitt Romney's Unexpected Defeat

Goldy — Tue, 20 Nov 2012 11:49:19 -0800

So, lets say you're a despondent Republican who'd been lulled into a false sense of Mitt Romney's inevitability by a misplaced trust in the math wizardry of Dean Chambers, the man behind UnSkewedPolls.com. How do you come to terms with Romney's unexpectedly crushing defeat? As Paul mentioned earlier, by buying into Chambers' latest endeavor, of course: BarackOFraudo.com, a website that alleges President Obama stole the election through voter fraud in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida!

Just look at those four states: They're black! So you know there's gotta be a lot of fraud!