The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper | Slog | It's Important to Note That National Polls Are Meaningless...

Thursday, August 9, 2012

2012 It's Important to Note That National Polls Are Meaningless...

Posted by Paul Constant on Thu, Aug 9, 2012 at 5:21 PM

...but Obama supporters should take a moment to enjoy this new CNN poll:

Mitt Romney's unfavorable rating is up, most Americans think the Republican presidential challenger favors the rich, and it appears the number of people who believe that the economy will not get better if Romney is elected has edged up slightly, according to a new national poll...It all adds up to a seven point advantage for President Barack Obama over the former Massachusetts governor, with 52% of registered voters questioned in the survey saying that they'd vote to re-elect the president and 45% backing Romney.

"Among independent voters, the poll indicates President Obama has a 53%-42% lead," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

And they should also enjoy this new Fox News poll, while they're at it:

The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points.

But let me repeat for the thousandth time, lest anyone accuse me of being jinxy: National polls are meaningless. What matters is the electoral college. And polls this far out don't indicate anything. Democrats will be outspent this November, and Republicans keep trying to make it more difficult for Democrats to get to the polls. So: back to work, everybody. Donate 'til it hurts, volunteer your time and expertise, do your part to help get out the vote. Nothing to see here.

FacebookShare

Comments (23) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment

The question is how good a job the Republicans have done in suppressing the vote.

Posted by seatackled on August 9, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Which is basically what Paul just wrote, making @1 a rather pointless comment. . . .

Posted by seatackled on August 9, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Actually, polls this far out do have predictive power, and the winner of the popular vote usually wins the Electoral College. Nothing is certain until the results are in, of course, but that doesn't make this stuff worthless.

Posted by I have always been... east coaster on August 9, 2012 at 6:46 PM

You have seen the Electoral College projections that show Obama pinning Romney down and cutting off his hair, haven't you?

Posted by levide on August 9, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Conservatives are the abusive estranged husband who'd rather kill their wife (In this case, their democracy) than see her with another man.

Expect them to go into overdrive in their voter suppression and gerrymandering efforts before they can be finally removed from power.

Posted by mubhappy on August 9, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Like those Inslee polls from two months ago?

Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe

on August 9, 2012 at 7:46 PM

this is great.

if we are lucky we will get four more years just like the last four years......

Posted by you are so full of shit on August 9, 2012 at 7:58 PM

* Donate 'til it hurts
It already hurts because I donated last year and Obama hasn't followed through.

* volunteer your time and expertise
LOL, I comment on slog. i'll waste my time pontificating here thankyouverymuch.

* do your part to help get out the vote.
This, I can do. I harass the shit out of everyone on FB to vote. The majority of my friends are not old selfish people, so I have to imagine they'll be voting for Obama.

Posted by Westlake, son! on August 9, 2012 at 8:08 PM

The troll is right. We will be fortunate if we get another four years of President Obama. Romney is just another lowest common denominator GOP sociopath.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay

on August 9, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Your note of caution is spot-on. However, all told, I'd much rather be in Obama's shoes than Romney's. It's true that his camp has much more money and that they've barely unloaded their guns. However, their message is much less compelling than Obama's, as demonstrated by our own resident trolls and by various polls. There isn't a single winning issue for Romney at this point. Indeed, all he really does is point the finger at Obama. He hasn't stated any positions other than the tired Republican platform and he refuses to give out policy details. Why would he do that? Because his policy positions are unpopular. That's why the mud Obama's camp is throwing at Romney is sticking more.

So yes, Romney has more money, but his message is much more expensive to sell. We'll see where we are after Romney has picked a VP and the Republican convention is over.

Posted by floater on August 9, 2012 at 8:46 PM

@4

I thought about the hair-cutting assault the moment I saw this photo; I sure would question the fitness for parenthood of anyone who would let Romney near this kid. Fortunately, he's with Obama.

http://media.talkingpointsmemo.com/slide…

Posted by seatackled on August 9, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Where the rubber meets the road: House and Senate races. The House is owned by the Tea Party. Democrats will struggle to hold the Senate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/…

Posted by Sean Kinney

on August 9, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Moreover, Obama does not have the skills to push a legislative agenda. He is aloof, does not develop relationships on the Hill, and is only now discovering leverage as an essential tool in politics. He is a moderate Jimmy Carter (intelligent with a sound moral ground) whose essential optimism and substantial charisma save him from Carter's shortcomings.

Obama wins. Gridlock is sustained.

Posted by Sean Kinney

on August 9, 2012 at 9:37 PM

I'd rather have gridlock than a tea party juggernaut.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay

on August 9, 2012 at 9:39 PM

@14. Lol. The Tea Party is a domestication of the U.S Patriot movement, and they have single-handedly transformed C-SPAN into a horror show of ideological dumbfuckery. Not just the Representatives, but the witnesses they call upon in committee hearings

Posted by Sean Kinney

on August 9, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I'm still confused about Paul's money worries. Obama has raised almost twice as much as Romney. Obama has spent more and has more cash on hand.

What gives?

Posted by LJM on August 9, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Inslee did pretty well Tuesday, Bailo, in an actual vote.

Posted by sarah70 on August 9, 2012 at 10:39 PM

@15 "The Tea Party is a domestication of the U.S Patriot movement"

Actually no, the Tea Bagger Party is a rear guard action by a bunch of frighten people.

Posted by Machiavelli was framed on August 9, 2012 at 11:30 PM

The tea partiers will burn themselves out and take a good chunk of the GOP out with them. Just wait.

Posted by dak7e on August 9, 2012 at 11:42 PM

9

Thank you.

Hoover wasn't so bad, either.....

Posted by the soft racism of lowered expectations on August 10, 2012 at 4:52 AM

Individual donations to presidential campaigns are like farts in a hurricane.

If you want to give your money away, please consider the campaigns in support of I-502 or R-74. Those will make tangible differences here at home.

Posted by bleedingheartlibertarian on August 10, 2012 at 6:35 AM

@5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_for_You…

Posted by myr on August 10, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Its all gonna be about swing-state turnout, as I've been saying to friends for the past year; here's what I like to check daily:

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

Posted by MarkyMark on August 10, 2012 at 7:33 PM