Friday, November 6, 2009
Election Are Late Voters McGinn Voters?
Posted by Dominic Holden on Fri, Nov 6, 2009 at 4:18 PM
By comparing voter rolls to records of ballots received by the county, Mike McGinn's mayoral campaign found that uncounted votes include far more of the youngest demographic, which are McGinn's voters, than counted votes. In contrast, uncounted votes include about 50 percent fewer voters over 65 years old than the previous counted votes.
- King County Elections has counted 137,025 ballots from Seattle voters and the McGinn camp estimates the county has an additional 55,000 uncounted ballots on hand.
In a recent SurveyUSA poll, you can see that McGinn's base is among voters 18 to 34. In contrast, Joe Mallahan's base is older voters, especially voters over 65 years old. In other words: Uncounted ballots appear to represent younger voters—who are more likely to be McGinn supporters—than the votes already counted. This could mean that the next batch of votes puts McGinn over the edge.
Late voters could also be McGinn voters if they read The Stranger.
According to Google Analytics, the Stranger's bill of endorsements—which give a hearty endorsement to McGinn—was viewed by 43,933 unique individuals. Of those, about 18,500 people viewed our endorsements in the last three days before the election. (That's not even counting cheat-sheet downloads from the home page or three issues of the paper around town that had our endorsement cheat sheet.) So those are late voters, they're mostly likely young voters, they are probably mostly McGinn voters, and they are voters whose ballots may not have been counted yet.
Seattle is estimated to have 213,841 total ballots when it's all said and done.
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Mcginn 49.99
Mallahands 49.19
which takes this out of the recount zone for now as you need <2000 vote diff AND <.5% diff
Mayor
Mike McGinn 75657 49.99%
Joe Mallahan 74448 49.19%
That's a jump.
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I know you guys don't usually pretend to be technologically astute, but Google Analytics numbers are subject to so many mitigating factors that to claim any concrete numbers it produces as fact is foolish.
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