So an increase over two years on the state level is the same as an increase all at once in one city? Okay...

And did that increase have any effect on poverty? And if it did, why are you still bitching?

So, we're not all living on soilent green, we survived?
What!!!!!!!

What this economy needs is a a couple jolts to the system. Raise the min wage now, right now.

You and your fact, Goldy....

My god. 85%. Just restaurants. That's brutal. Torpedo amidships right below the waterline. It keeps getting worse and worse for these guys, doesn't it? They've got nothing.

You're losing, guys. Losing. Stop embarrassing yourselves and get to work preparing for the minimum wage increase. Or pack up and go enjoy the lovely business climate in Idaho, if that's what you'd rather have.

The thing that makes me laugh is that when the price of gas, electricity, or something else most businesses use the common response is, oh well, everyone else will have to pay it, too.
But increase the cost of labor and people freak out.

Pretty shameful.

I think Goldy just made the case to increase the minimum wage 85% over the next two years.

@5,

It makes me mad too, when you consider what rent prices have been doing to established businesses all over the country. Gray's Papaya in the West Village, gone, thanks to the rent more than doubling. Mr. Spot's in Seattle, still gone, and nothing seems to manage to stay in that spot for more than six months.

But the real threat to small business is labor costs? Fuck off.

As a slum lord, I can't wait to get my dip out of this wage hike! Planning an 85% rent hike as we speak!

Is it likely the minimum wage will increase to $15 overnight or is it more likely to be phased in over a few years? I know we don't want to push the increase out so far that inflation erases the gains, but some phasing in might be warranted. And then of course it would be good to have an automatic increase tied to inflation in the future.

How many of the restaurateurs fighting a minimum wage increase also screamed their heads of claiming that a smoking ban would run them out of business?

Late at night, you can head out to the seedier bars and buy the old restauranteurs drinks. They're more than happy to recount their stories about the Massacre of '88.

It's incredibly harrowing stuff.

There you go using facts again.

Our corporate masters need slave wages or they will need to export more jobs to China - where labor costs doubled in the last 3 years ...

@7 the grays papaya in the village is gone?!?! That's a goddamn shame. Way to ruin my day.

And in 1974 basically every business took a hit when 7.4 million people were immediately made eligible for overtime and other employment protections at the same time as a 2-step 40% increase to minimum wage after the FLSA amendments act was signed into law by President Nixon.

So.

We can deal.

@9 There will be a phase in, likely over three years, in order to meet Mayor Murray's campaign promise of a $15 minimum wage by the end of his first term. And in my conversations with proponents, a modest phase in appears to be an acceptable compromise.

@10 Remember how a few days of paid sick leave made them shit their pants? How it was going to be the end of the fucking world?

And look what happened. Maybe these stupid fucks need to stop crying wolf.

No phase in! COLA!!!

@13,

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. At this point I'm just assuming that all my favorite places in the city are gone. It was starting even before I moved.

@15
Sawant said she wants to fight a phase in and once it all at once, and no exceptions for small businesses.

We opponents of this are not the ones unable to compromise. She is.

I would support a phase in if only to give me more time to get the hell out of this liberal cesspool move with my guns somewhere sensible. like Texas or Colorado.

Heya Goldy, see this latest Seattlish piece?
http://seattlish.com/post/77723328993/ti…

Thoughts?

Goldy, I don't have time to go through your whole analysis but it seems a little off as tipped workers in this case are only about 50% or less of the staff. And it's not just the %, but the total dollar amount.

Folks should keep in mind that many restaurant owners, myself included, are not opposing the raise in the minimum wage. We're looking at ways to make it work. Many are withholding a position until the Mayor's Advisory Committee comes out with something. The only thing people seem opposed to is $15Now's proposal of an immediate rise to $15 next year with no phase in, no exemptions, no other compensation counted. That dogmatic approach doesn't work for labor (who want a waiver for collective bargaining agreements) or small business, and especially not for social services, daycares etc.

It's nice to hear that Goldy thinks Sawant isn't being honest when saying we have to have $15 now, with no exceptions.

PS - Murray's campaign was about raising the minimum wage to $15 by the end of his term for big box stores and national quick serve chains, while finding ways to protect local small businesses. I would think at the end of the day we phase different sized businesses in over different periods, with big box and quick serve being 3 years, and other longer. Then we calculate the wage including tips and some other verifiable, taxable earnings.

Of course, in 1988 you could rent a one bedroom apartment on Capitol Hill for $220 a month.

@19, raise it now.
Move now.

Restaurant owners can be...

some of the most self-centered, self-promoting douches I've had the displeasure to work with and for. Restaurant owners pay HALF the minimum wage that all other employers are legally bound to pay with the excuse that the servers make butt loads of money from tips. The Restaurant owners promote a picture of waitress queens that are virtual millionaires living off server's tip collections.
Tell that to the vast majority of severs I know that can't afford a car, healthcare, or clothes destroyed by their work let alone saving money to buy a house or support the ultimate luxury... feeding their kids. (Food stamps, right?)

There is a special place in hell for these bottom feeding, constantly complaining "small business" Restaurant owners we are all supposed to feel sorry for.
Very Mitt Romney in their group outlook on employees and the burden they suffer running their business.

@24 - of course in Seattle, you're wrong. First, the minimum wage here is currently $9.32 for ALL employees, and it increases annually based on the CPI. Second, some of the more active progressives in our city are small business owners, and many of them are restaurant owners. Most restaurant owners I know support raising the minimum wage, they just want to do it smartly.

So we're posting the addresses of people's we disagree with now?

27: Meinert has repeatedly claimed he would go out of business if the minimum wage went up to $15 without his proposed exemptions for himself and his buddies. He's Seattle's most powerful and vocal anti-worker lobbyist. He's made his personal finances into a political issue. It's important to show that he's flat out lying when he says he couldn't afford it. His deceptions are shaping public policy and people's ability to afford basic living expenses.

If I owned a restaurant (which thankfully I don't) I would simply add a 15% service charge to the bill and use that to fund the higher wages. Along with a message on the bill "The tip's already included!"

Is this supposed to be $15/hour AND the automatic yearly change due to a change in the Consumer Price Index? I am mildly confused...

"By 1988, Washington's state minimum wage had been allowed to lag far behind the then federal minimum wage of $3.35 an hour. So most of our state's minimum wage workers saw a 27 percent increase in wages from $3.35 to $4.25."

I am mildly confused...In a discrepancy between the federal minimum and a state minimum, the federal prevails. Maybe I have not comprehended correctly, and this has something to due with restaurant workers.

http://www.kingcounty.gov/exec/PSB/Bench…

http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpiseat.htm

This post on this today represents the kind of willingly blinkered thinking that gives the left a bad name and that will eventually discredit Sawant also. Goldy correctly points out that Washington has previously weathered a large minimum wage hike, and that the sky did not fall. What he ignores is that while that hike was state-wide, this one is not, and the difference matters a fucking lot. If I run a house-cleaning business in Seattle, and I can avoid this hike's impact on my competitive position by moving it down the street to Renton, I will do that. As a supporter of a STATEWIDE minimum wage hike to fifteen dollars per hour, I'd like to know why supporters of the Seattle-only hike think it's OK to ignore this consideration.

@28 - Let's break this down a bit.

First, I own several businesses. Some would be completely uneffected by a minimum wage increase. I have not claimed "I" would go out of business.

Next, a couple of my businesses are full service restaurants. This is a sector that will be especially hard hit by an immediate rise to $15 because they are labor intensive, and because of how tips play in.

Now if there is a tip credit, and a phase in, this sector won't be closed down. It would still have to raise some wages, and guarantee the tipped workers make at least the minimum, but it would survive with a modest price increase. Many businesses would still struggle, as they currently operate with such small margins, but I think most would survive

Without a tip credit or recognition of other taxable earned income beyond just wage, and phase in, many full service restaurants would struggle and many would close. It would mean an increase in overall cost of 20-25%. This could in part be made up for with price increases, but that would mean a large loss of sales, so other things would have to happen. If changes to hours, benefits, staffing, couldn't keep the restaurants profitable, they'd close.

Every other living wage proposal in the US, and higher minimum wage in the US, includes a tip credit or accounting for total compensation. It's smart policy if done well (easily verifiable, enforceable).

But Raku, you are correct. I would probably be able to survive if a couple of my businesses closed. But this isn't about me. We value small businesses in Seattle and the jobs that come with them. Closing a place like Lost Lake will mean 115 jobs lost, and a space valuable to the community will be gone. We don't have to do that. Instead we can raise wages in a way that protects small business (and social services, etc). I say we find a way to do that. Local business owners will have some pain, but I think that pain is worth the benefit to the employees and the local economy.

@21 What is dishonest about starting a negotiation insisting on what you want instead of what you'll take? Have you ever bought a car? Ever haggled in your life?

Starting with your compromise position is how the Democrats lost the public option. Had we insisted on single-payer at the outset, we might have gotten a better health reform deal.

@31 Um... this post is about RESTAURANTS weathering a steep minimum wage increase. That's all this post is about, that the RESTAURANT industry has previously survived an 85 percent increase in the minimum wage.

These are facts.

@19
well, she isnt the one losing the public debate, so she isn't the one who NEEDS to compromise. With how much support 15now has, opponents should be happy if they have ANY say in how its structured.

My first job in 1988 was washing dishes in an Azteca in Tacoma. It paid $4/hr which was much higher than minimum wage at the time. I thought I was a high rolla

So Goldy, is Sawant's $15 Now, no compromise, no exemptions, no phase in just rhetoric we shouldn't take seriously like you and her campaign staff are now trying to say, or is she serious? Seems like the $15Now supporters are going to lose some faith in their leader if you're admitting $15Now's stance is just there to negotiate from and we're not having a real conversation about good policy.

@26 - of course in Seattle, I'm right.

"First, the minimum wage here is currently $9.32 for ALL employees, and it increases annually based on the CPI." You failed to mention: you deduct their hard earned tips, meals etc... your out of pocket is less than half of minimum wage. Do you think we are stupid and just would not notice your claiming to pay even minimum wage (as if minimum wage is even close to a decent wage).

Restaurant owners can be...

some of the most self-centered, self-promoting douches I've had the displeasure to work with and for. Meinert, you relentless post your condescending opinions and concocted "industry data" excusing the fucked up way restaurant workers are treated and paid. Restaurants are the bottom of the employer food chain. Your industry is defining the absolute least an employer can pay a worker. Then you have the nerve to claim to be a progressive while fucking every employee you hold in ultra low wage servitude?

"some of the more active progressives in our city are small business owners, and many of them are restaurant owners"
Because you and your friend's restaurants host a "save the Capital Hill Trees night" is simply self-promotion. Then you claim that you and your fellow low wage employers are "some of the more active progressives", clearly you doubled up on management and economics classes in collage and skipped all those boring labor history classes. Constant self-promotion with a side of self aggrandizement is part and parcel to what you do.

@32
I'm very surprised by your numbers! So a 50% increase in base wage would correspond to a 20% increase in operating cost... So am I right in thinking that base wages are a full 40%+ of your costs? I dont have any experience managing a restaurant, but nearly half seems kind of high given all the other expenses involved.

@37
See, workers movements often don't trust owners' ideas about "best practice", because to owners everything is fine right now. "Best policy" has been in effect for a long time, and a great many people are very unhappy with it. This conversation doesn't happen without the movement. 15Now is going to get everything it can. So will you.

@38,

They deduct tips from what? Using tips to meet minimum wage is specifically illegal in Washington state. If you know of any employers doing that, you should encourage their employees to sue.

This is the question the right has to answer. Do you want smaller government with less handouts, or do you want low minimum wage? Because you cannot have both. If Col. Sanders isn't going to pay the lady behind the counter enough to live on, then Uncle Sam has to, and Eifer one and getting a little tired of helping highly profitable companies pay their workers.
~Bill Maher

My comment got deleted for posting photos of Meinert's $1.1 million mansion. Whatever.

One point beyond this that is crucial not to give up on -- the anti-worker lobby is pushing to exempt social workers and childcare workers, along with themselves, from the $15 minimum wage. It is CRUCIAL that we don't give in to this. Seattle already has the #1 gender pay gap in the entire country, and those two fields are both incredibly underpaid and dominated by women. It's unconscionable and into evil-villain-territory that anyone would want to make these exempt from the minimum wage.

Also, just enact a service fee and the tip problem is solved. The only reason you'd be against this is if you want to continue dodging taxes and benefits to your employees. It doesn't count as a $15 minimum wage if your workers don't get the unemployment and social security benefits that come from getting a true wage.

@37 I can't speak for Sawant, but my understanding is that she and SA want $15 now, no exemptions. And if the council does not produce a compromise ordinance that she finds acceptable, that may be what she goes to the ballot with.

When it comes to compromise, I honestly don't know where she draws the line. But then, at this point, I honestly don't know where I draw my line. I'm convinced there will be some sort of phase in, and I'm okay with that in theory.

You don't have to post photos of a $1.1 million mansion, just list the restaurant's name and the owner's name, we will vote with our feet about our opinion of his comments.

@42 - I think we should have a strong safety net And not shrink government AND have a higher minimum wage. I think we can do that. The crazy thing about this conversation is that liberals are attacking and bullying other liberals because of nuanced differences on how to deal with income inequality.

@38 -
"You failed to mention: you deduct their hard earned tips, meals etc... your out of pocket is less than half of minimum wage. Do you think we are stupid and just would not notice your claiming to pay even minimum wage (as if minimum wage is even close to a decent wage)."

Machiavelli - Actually, in Washington, nothing can be deducted from the minimum wage. Every employee makes at least $9.32 per hour, and this increases annually based on the CPI. Most restaurant workers making the minimum wage also make a significant amount of tips, or they make much more than the minimum. Either way their total taxable earnings are much more than $9.32. At least in the full serve sector. Not true in the quick server industry.

"Meinert, you relentless post your condescending opinions and concocted "industry data" excusing the fucked up way restaurant workers are treated and paid. Restaurants are the bottom of the employer food chain. Your industry is defining the absolute least an employer can pay a worker. Then you have the nerve to claim to be a progressive while fucking every employee you hold in ultra low wage servitude? "

I have only been in the restaurant business for 4 years and I agree this industry has many faults. I think for instance, that restaurant workers need to have retirement. Speak with EOI about this, it's something I've been working on them with for over a year. At the 5 Point every employee is offered a 401k with matching and profit share. Many other restaurants do something similar. What I disagree with you on is that restaurant workers in Seattle are held in ultra low wage servitude. Um...yeah.

Bottom line is this - many small business owners in Seattle support an increase to the minimum wage. But different folks have different opinions on how best to do it. You can boycott business owners who support progressive politics, but I think that's detrimental to the cause. Instead, let's have an honest informative conversation without all the posturing and bullying.

I'm off to have dinner at St. Clouds and support them in light of the bullying from staff of this paper.

Meinert @32: "Closing a place like Lost Lake will mean 115 jobs lost..."

Say what? 115 jobs at a single cafe? Where did you come up with that number?

@47 Who on the staff of this paper has bullied St. Clouds? We're not responsible for commenters, but who on this staff is bullying St. Clouds?

Meinert says:
"Then we calculate the wage including tips and some other verifiable, taxable earnings." Your self-described calculation of your employee minimum wage calculation "includes tips" and "other".
Your words, not mine.

Have a good dinner at St Cloud and tip well! (The server's baby needs food & diapers)
Bwhahaa

I'll never eat food again.

Not allowing a tip credit is racist. Why should the front-of-house white hipster waitstaff make twice as much as the line cooks & dishwashers who are more often than not of color & far more likely to be in the industry for life?

@52 You're right. I'm a racist. That's why I support raising the minimum wage: because I hate people of color. It's also why I'm fighting for universal preschool. Also, I'm a Nazi. Worse than Hitler.

(Jesus. This is a post that presents facts. Actual facts. Not hyperbole. Not vitriol. And these are the kind of comments it generates?)

@48 - you're right, that number is high. It was 115 over the summer, now in January it's only 91. And I get that number from my payroll.

@50 - I'm saying in a new higher living wage calculation we should include not just wages, but also other taxable earned income. Like every other living wage law in the country.

@54: 91 full time jobs at a single cafe? I find that really hard to believe.

@55 - that's the number of employees. It's a restaurant, not all are full time (though we prefer them to be). But yes, restaurants are very labor intensive and have a relatively very high number of employees per income vs. most other businesses.

I see, so the "115 jobs" you refer to @32 is now 91 employees, some of whom are full-time and some of whom probably pick up just a couple shifts a week at Lost Lake. Do you see how some of us may not trust the numbers you keep throwing around on this issue? Your hyperbole is showing.

I lose money on new guys until they learn the business. I can survive the small losses near the current minimum wage, not so at $15/hr. I've got 2 guys, both earning more than minimum wage right now, that both get pink slips if this goes through.

I'm already competing with the Chinese, so I can't raise my prices and customers don't tip in manufacturing.

I'm not sure how one becomes an economics professor if you don't understand the laws of supply and demand.

"By 1988, Washington's state minimum wage had been allowed to lag far behind the then federal minimum wage of $3.35 an hour. So most of our state's minimum wage workers saw a 27 percent increase in wages from $3.35 to $4.25."

How can you compare the raise in this instance (when WA STATE was not even at the federal level) to what is on the table now.

And try to use this as an economic truth that all small business can weather this massive increase.

I don't follow the logic.

@59 Re-read the post. The only comparison I make is the one I explicitly make: businesses that relied on tipped employees—mostly restaurants—absorbed an 85 percent increase in their minimum wage over two years. That is a fact. And yet the industry apparently survived.

This isn't presented as proof that "all small business can weather" a hike to $15. It is presented as proof that an 85 percent hike in the minimum is not necessarily a job killer.

Meinert, here's a question for you: Is the tip pooling at your establishments mandated by management or entirely voluntary on the part of your front of house workers? The reason I ask is that federal law restricts your ability to mandate a tip pool when a tip credit is exercised. Only jurisdictions that offer no tip credit are exempted.

So hypothetically, what interest would there be for servers to voluntarily share, say, a few bucks an hour with dishwashers, if the dishwashers are going to earn $15 an hour regardless, no more, no less? Since you must pay the difference between subminimum-plus-tips and the city minimum, wouldn't any tip sharing amount within that range merely subsidize your labor costs?

To be clear, I think tip pooling in a non-tip-credit state is a legitimate strategy for raising back of house wages. But it stops making sense for servers when all or most of the shared tips end up offsetting management's cost in the form of a tip credit, rather than raising the real wages of the back of house.

@ Suddenly every liberal is a rabid free marketeer. Yeah just do this thing with out discrimination or consideration or phase in and The Strong Will Survive! How very Neoliberal of you.

The ENTIRE point of raising the minimum wage was to mitigate the capricious whims of the god damed market. Individual circumstances must be taken into consideration. Joe Bar and Pedirosso are not Subway.

So here you are applying specious market reliant reasoning based on some past loosely relevant example. Well, in case you haven't noticed it's not the fucking 1990's when rents and COL was lower and the Dot Com Boom/Bubble was starting.

I was for raising the MW LONG before The Stranger (Back during the twenty years you guys found religion when you weren't paying your interns and constantly justified that shit).

Mienert is right. This has to be done carefully. Just some blanket implementation is counter to the entire point.

@61 The motivation for a server to share tips is to get better service from the others you are working with. You don't share tips with the bartender, but the other server does? Which one is going to get their drinks made first? Don't share with the hostess? Where do you think the hostess seat put the customers. So the motivation for the server is that he/she can't provide good service (and earn good tips) without the help of the other employees.

@53, Goldy - you did not respond to my point, so I'll try again. Most states allow restaurant owners to take a tip credit toward minimum wage requirements. While this may seem unfair, it helps correct a basic inequality between back & front of house - waitstaff get tips & cooks/dishwashers do not. Even tip pooling arrangements do not include back of house, because tipped employees cannot be legally compelled to share tips with non-tipped employees.

WA state does not allow a tip credit & many full-service Seattle restaurants already struggle to balance cook & waitstaff compensation given tips can double waitstaff wages. Most pay cook well more than minimum because of this & because that's what it takes to keep good line cooks. If the minimum becomes $15/hour without a tip credit, it will become much more difficult to pay cooks more than waitstaff given the sharp rise in labor costs. Possibly experienced cooks wages actually go down to help absorb waitstaff raises. And waitstaff continue to keep all their tips creating a situation where cooks make $15 & waitstaff $30/hour.

If there was a tip credit, or partial tip credit, owners could balance wages between back and front of house much better as a credit would allow savings on waitstaff labor that could go towards line cooks. If you look around you will notice that waitstaff are as a general rule more likely to be white than back of house staff (maybe 2X?) If a certain class of workers is consistently paid less than another in the same establishment, despite equal if not greater required skill & experience level that is not fair. Since there is also a consistent correlation with race, that is discriminatory. The current situation (no credit) is already racist, a higher minimum that does not allow a tip credit will be even more so.

I wish some folks with current industry experience would add some real $ numbers re front & back of house wages, & average tips. This is not hyperbole, Goldy.

#62 The Stranger is ridiculous. They decide to start paying their UNPAID interns about two months ago, and now they are preaching to every other business about fair labor practices. And they are still non-union -- though they are the first to preach to other anti-union businesses.

@64 In WA, and other states that do not allow tip credits, tipped employees can be legally compelled to share tips with non-tipped employees via management mandated tip pool. Indeed, the National Restaurant Association encourages restaurants do implement tip pools in non-tip-credit states as a means of equalizing front and back of house wages.

And if you insist on playing the race card, then I'll have to counter with gender. Servers are overwhelmingly women, and the wage disparity between men and women is well documented.

But I'd prefer not to just automatically accuse people who disagree with me of being hate-talkers.

Percentages are strange though:
.85*2.30 (heck, .85*2.30+2.30) << .62 * 9.32

I would much rather have a 62% raise on what I make today than an 85% increase on what I was making in 1988 - I am guessing that would hold true for anyone old enough to make the comparison...

@66, Goldy - you are incorrect. The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) permits employer-mandated tip pools among employees who “customarily and regularly” receive tips, such as waiters, waitresses, bellhops, bussers and service bartenders. Employees such as chefs, cooks, janitors, and dishwashers who do not "customarily and regularly receive tips" are not allowed to share in the money contributed to a tip pool. See http://www.dol.gov/whd/regs/compliance/w…, and a half dozen other credible sources at your fingertips. Tip pools allow employees who do not typically receive as many tips directly from customers, such as bussers or hostesses, to share in the benefits of good service, non-tipped employees must be excluded for a mandatory pool to be legal.

As far as hate-talking, no one's called you a racist. I said that the current situation regarding front & back of house wage inequity is already discriminatory, & will be become more racist without a tip credit. You are the one introducing language like "Nazi". As for the gender wage gap, are you suggesting that (largely white) women waiting tables for twice the amount of money as (frequently Latino) male cook staff somehow compensates for broader wage inequality (i.e. unequal pay for equal work)? I cannot see how that wrong makes a right. Especially given that front-of-house staff are far more often just passing through on the way to something better, whereas being a line cook is a trade that takes skills and experience, is often the best option such workers have and they are often in it for life, frequently supporting children.

@68 You might want to read the footnote to that fact sheet. Until the case makes its way to a conclusion, employers CAN mandate tip sharing with the people in the back. And thanks to WA state law they are required to pay the front end staff full minimum wage (if I'm reading things correctly that is, so it is possible they don't have to)

@68 What @69 said. Washington is exempt from the FLSA tip retention regulations, and many restaurants set up mandatory tip pools that share with back of house staff. In fact, the WRA encourages them to.