Comments

1
But hey, just so long as we're preventing gen III/IV nuclear power (and fast breeder reactors to drastically reduce waste!) from replacing coal and natural gas, right?

Fun fact: way more radioactive waste is produced by a coal plant than a nuclear plant on a per megawatt basis, and then there's the mercury, the arsenic and the fact that it just gets dumped into the air.
2
@1, radioactive waste? Citation please.
3
@2 Scientific American ok with you? http://www.scientificamerican.com/articl…

The thing to understand with coal is that it's mildly, mildly radioactive, but because a typical plant has to burn mile long trains of the stuff it adds up rather quickly.

I can look for other sources if you're curious.
4
No, that's enough for me. Thank you.
5
Don't worry the sorcerer apprentice @1 will fix it all for you ..
6
I'd just like to add that I'm not against conventional renewable power either, it's just that those sources of power are limited by either natural conditions (sun/wind/distance from use) and to work well you need a solid base load source.

If we're serious about reducing carbon, we need to take a combination of renewable power and modern nuclear power. France has a ton of experience with this, as does China.
7
@5 Do you have an actual point you'd like to make?
8
I like the idea of a vacuum cleaner for carbon dioxide, but where would we empty the bag?
9
We're all gonna die!
10
@7 - Yes, I find it consistent that you campaign both for GMO and nuclear as if technological fixes were the solutions to all of our problems. I imagine that in addition to being a life scientist, you are also a nuclear scientist.

Anyhoo, enough thread hijacking for the nuclear lobby.
11
@8 You're probably looking at a plan were a bunch of trees are grown, and then buried. They'll decompose over time anyway, but it's more a measure to buy more time than anything else.

The "clean" coal bullshit talks about pumping pressurized liquid CO2 into underground tanks with is awesome until one leaks and the heavier than air gasses kill off a city.
12
@8 - Carbon sequestration by underground injection (the method most commonly invoked) is a pipe dream because it is somewhat ineffective since gases often don't stay put and extremely expensive to transport the gas to site. It'd be a giant boondogle for the usual culprits.

Drawing carbon out of the air via enhanced weathering processes of silicate minerals however would be both cheap and inoffensive but the ultimate efficiency of the process has to be assessed.
13
@10 First I'm a Monsanto lobbyist and now I'm a nuclear lobbyist? You really need to make up your mind.

By the way, you don't need to be a nuclear scientist to understand the basics of nuclear power - I highly recommend Berkley's "Physics for Future Presidents".
14
1. the case for "doing something" is made.
2. environmentalists are unclear on what needs to be done, what regulations we should be fighting for, and what we individually must do to take corrective action.
3. Do I as a Seattleite have to not have children? not have dogs or cats? not eat meat? not drive anywhere? not fly to bali for that Sierra club vacation? not build a new LEED certified house, or if it's LEED certified then it' okay to tear down an older house, not renovate it, and dispose of it, and consume lots of energy making the green materials to build the new one? what about building airplanes, is it okay to build airplanes that help the airline industry pollute the atmosphere -- we don't have plug in electric airplanes yet do we.

Is it okay to buy a laptop made in china and an ihpone made in china and type internet comments using those products that were made in plants with electricity from coal powered power plants? If so, must we only buy laptops made in Washington state with hydro powered factories? won't that cost a lot more? what exactly and precisely do we need to be doing to be at a carbon budget that models the change we want, that lets us be the change we advocate for?

it's totally unclear. Result -- people don't know what action to take. Saying do all of it is unrealistic. What should my personal carbon budget be, and should I chuck the dog first, the second annual plane trip first, or the working at boeing first?
15
@14 I think you're making a lot of great points, I would only add that we can't just frame this as an individual problem. I can't solve this alone, and neither can you. Collective action is required.
16
@3 To be fair, that article is more of an indictment of coal than an endorsement of nuclear fission.

The SA summary and study cited are basically comparing 'improperly' managed ash vs. emission from a properly functioning, operational reactor. It was not accounting for long term waste emission, or the fact that nobody has a long term solution for nuclear waste products that approaches even the half life of many byproducts.
17
@14/15 demonstrate pretty clearly why a heavy carbon tax is the obvious step number one. Fiddly individual choices in a vacuum just don't amount to much, unless you price the externalities into the system. Tax coal and oil production at an appropriate level, and we'll pretty quickly figure out the proper mix of wind/geo/nuke/solar to get on with our lives.

Then comes the real trick: convincing China and India (and, later, whichever African countries develop first) to play along.
18
Also: carbon sequestration / geoengineering is so very very very clearly a red herring deliberately floated by the various incumbent fossil extraction companies as a means of convincing people that no policy changes are necessary. Can we please stop wasting time talking about sci-fi what-if scenarios?
19
@16

Nobody has a long term solution? I've already mentioned fast breeder reactors and if you're going to talk about half life, you need to also discuss the inverse relationship between radioactivity and half-life and the different types of radiation being given off.

We could just do what the French do and recycle the damn fuel.

What do you suggest for baseload power generation if you want to reduce carbon in a meaningful way?
20
No matter what. It has gotta be way way easier to leave Carbon underground as much as possible than pull it out of the air....or even smokestacks and store it away.

On nuclear we currently have the worst of both worlds:, old relatively dirty high maintenance designs running past their design lifetime. I'd like to see some kind of encouragement on improving that. E.g. Require less waste each year from the industry and subsidy only for less waste producing designs per kilowatt matched with retiring the least safe current reactors...or some such scheme to tide us over until there is something better. That could lead to more nuclear produced energy and less waste over time.
21
@17 To their credit, China is developing significant nuclear power and India is building fast breeder reactors, so convincing them to reduce carbon heavy power generation could be easier than many believe.
22
@20 Additionally, we should allow for standardized reactor designs for more efficient regulatory approval. Like everything else in highly regulated industries, you test the crap out of the finalized design then ensure that the rest are built and run per the approved design.
24
I'd like to throw my support behind what Solk512 has said so far. He's pretty much bang-on. Nuclear fission isn't perfect, but it's a lot cleaner than a lot of our other options. In my opinion, we should move to fission as much as possible, NIMBYers be damned, and phase it out gradually as renewable energy progresses.

As far as pulling CO2 out of the air goes, we can go directly to the source. There's been substantial research into scrubbing coal plant exhaust of particulates and running it over sheets of cyanobacteria. The blue-green algae don't need that much sunlight, grow rapidly, and efficiently take up carbon dioxide from their surroundings, and the biomass produced can be converted into feed or fuel. (Article here.)

@12: Silicate weathering is a very long-term part of the geological thermostat. There's a great deal of exposed rock, but weathering is so slow that feedback takes tens or hundreds of thousands of years to really show much effect. We don't have a snowball's chance in hell of harnessing the effect to make a meaningful dent in anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
25
@17 - "Then comes the real trick: convincing China and India"

There is no evidence that convincing our corporate overlords or getting them out of the way will be easier.
26
My greatest concern with nuclear isn't with the byproduct, but with the fact that, in America at least, it's entirely in the hands of the private sector, and the private sector can't be trusted to do the job. Why? Because the profit motive trumps the safety motive. Every time. And that's only reinforced by our system which socializes all the risk.

If we're going to do it, we're first going to have to wage a revolution about our attitudes regarding the free market, about how it's better at solving things than government. Because if we implement nuclear, it has to be handled by people who understand that their loyalty is toward the people being served, and not the shareholders who only understand profit and loss.
27
In the energy efficiency world, we tell clients to find ways to save energy before you start investing in power-generating projects like on-site solar and wind. The reason is it's often much, much cheaper to save energy than generate it. This is even more true for carbon - it's much, much, much cheaper to not generate CO2 in the first place than to pull it out of the air. Of course, we've proven that we aren't even concerned enough to make a dent on the generation side. We haven't so much as capped carbon here, in one of the most carbon-intensive countries. And it's so cheap to do that it could even improve the economy. So I have zero hope we'll make a dent with the pull-from-the-air strategy.
28
@24 - yeah, the plague is much preferable to cholera ("nuclear is as clean as coal")

As for silicate weathering, I said "enhanced" silicate weathering insofar the limits on silicate weathering in some environments may be the availability of fresh mineral surfaces.
29
Oh, and sign me up for the solar side. I'd be even more happy with wide investment in solar, wind, etc. But nuclear could really save us, and potentially quickly, if we let it.
30
@26 - Don't waste your time, nuclear advocates are completely oblivious to the kind of society needed to make nuclear relatively safe.
31
The US and much of the world have all the solar potential needed and the technology is pretty much already available. Tax carbon emissions for externalized costs and renewables will be more than competitive It is a political will problem.
32
Nuclear has got to be among the most subsidized technology ever and industry still doesn't want to pay for new plants.
33
And here is a proposed solution: http://carbonengineering.com/
34
@30 What in the hell does that even mean? I've done nothing but advocate public funding, control and oversight.

@31 You're completely ignoring the issue of power transmission or lack of available sunlight everywhere. Solar is a localized solution only, and even then you need to account for power generation when the weather goes bad or at night.

Solar is great for many things, but it's still not a baseload power source.
35
What @34 said. Solar + wind + hydro + geothermal + good transmission in the US could bring us really far toward a complete power solution, and we should be pushing toward that goal at full speed (instead of the snail's pace we're actually moving). But on windless nights we'll need something else. Also, if nukes can replace coal faster than renewables (and I freely admit it's an open question), it's worth letting them move forward.
36
@21, China may be pursuing nuclear, but they're pursuing coal -- dirty coal -- even harder. In fact, the world is just...about...now moving from oil as its predominant energy source back to coal, primarily because of China. Coal is by far the most rapidly increasing energy fuel, and, despite a lot of hot air about new standards, US coal exports have doubled under Obama.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: people talk about what needs to be done to reduce carbon emissions, but carbon emissions aren't being reduced; they're going up, and they're not only going up, but the rate of increase is increasing. The real boom in carbon emissions is barely underway. BP research says that global emissions are going to go up by A THIRD in the next twenty years, and I think that figure is low.

The important thing to realize is that it DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THE US DOES. Global carbon emissions are going way, way up EVEN IF THE US CEASED TO EXIST. Your Prius accomplishes nothing except complacency.

400 ppm? How do you feel about 600? Can we get to 800 ppm by 2050? I think we can. Four billion people will die, but we won't let that stop us.
37
@35 - Not true, that's a myth. Renewables can provide baseload demand as shown by many studies: http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.ph…

Investing in nuclear takes away from investing in renewables that have never been adequately funded. Nuclear isn't safe enough in today's politico-economics as seen at Fukushima.
38
@34 You are mostly regurgitating fossil fuel lobby PR regarding renewables and baseload power: http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.ph…

Civilian nuclear never goes anywhere without his evil twin military nuclear. Civilian nuclear demands the highest level of scrutiny and security, which very few nations if any can really provide as shown at Fukushima.
39
@37
The first "renewable" power source your link suggest is burning wood. Then to help with power fluctuations in wind and solar, they suggest using gas turbine generators. Methane is much, much worse than CO2.The last thing we need is more natural gas in power generation.

Furthermore, the idea that energy is "wasted" at night is silly: modern nuclear plants can vary their capacity significantly in around an hour, and if there is such a huge load it can go to things like water desalination, electrolysis for hydrogen fuel, recharging electric vehicles and so on.

Concentrated solar power is only useful and efficient at high temperatures and where the sun actually shines on a regular basis. It was built in Spain for a reason! You aren't building one of those up here.

The idea that wind will be fine if you interconnect everything ignores two very important problems - significant power loss through long distance electrical transmission and the fact that the best sites for wind are in sparsely populated areas. The former isn't even discussed at all, and that's a huge issue in the US, China and Russia.

I'm perfectly fine with the idea that 20-30% of our power could come from locally appropriate renewable sources, but the idea that we can just magic away the need for baseload power through building improvements is hopelessly naive.
40
@39 - The first reference to renewable energy is "bio-electricity generated from burning the residues of crops and plantation forests", which is very different than "burning wood" as you claim unless you aren't planning on cutting plantation trees anymore (sheesh!). You didn't strike me as a treehugger before ..

If you have any serious and targeted references to substantiate your claims, i'll gladly have a look.
41
@40 I'll have some stuff for you later tonight.
42
oh goodness!

whatever will the enlightened homoliberals do?

run around like headless chickens, it seems.

people.
Climate Change is an unalterable reality.
your asses are cooked.
Face it.

besides.

your "civilization" will collapse in a violent spasm of self destruction long before the weather gets you.

because Gommorah.
43
Biochar, anyone? The massive reclamation, pyrolization (turn into charcoal) and then storage in stable geologic formations of corn stover, wheat cuttings and other agricultural wastes could be used. It can be used as a soil amendment as well, but is less well stored than it would be in old mines, caverns, etc.

All viable carbon capture and storage technologies grab the CO2 from fossil fuels we're already burning, so the gain is a net zero. In order to actually extract CO2 from the air, the highest scale solutions are botanical. Grow a tree, turn it into charcoal to stabilize the carbon, then store the carbon somewhere where it will not or will take a very long time to re-enter the carbon cycle.
44
@28: Nuclear fission is far cleaner than coal SO LONG AS the waste products are managed properly. I agree with Matt from Denver that the private sector shouldn't be trusted to run such potentially-dangerous enterprises.
As far as silicate weathering goes, I don't think you really understand just how slow the process is. Total carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production is about 9.7 gigatons per year (source. The TOTAL CARBON SINK attributed to carbonate AND silicate weathering combined was estimated to be 0.29 gigatons per year (source, go to page 22). That's a decently large number but it's minuscule next to what we're pumping out. It's an incredibly slow process, and any human attempt to speed it up (and we don't really have a model for how to do that) would almost certainly produce more emissions than it absorbed.
45
aaand here's that close-paren I forgot after the first source)
46
@44 - I said that the efficiency of such methods had yet to be assessed in my first comment on this topic (@12). Some authors also suggest that a significant fraction of C emissions could be trapped in this way; over 10% of annual emissions by the weathering of olivine for example: http://www.pnas.org/content/107/47/20228…
47
@46: Ooh, that article proposes fertilizing coastal oceans with silica to spur the productivity of diatoms. Now THAT is worth investigating. I still think that spreading olivine everywhere is a bad tactic, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
48
@39 I was with you (and Matt and venomlash) up to this point, but I gotta point out the gas turbines burn methane and turn it into CO2, so your point there is a bit silly, unless you are warning of leakage of methane from the gas production and transport infrastructure.

49
I am really not sure that i understand the logic behind pouring massive investment into a minimum 50 yr nuclear plant cycle that wouldn't come on line for another 15 years (e.g. a minimum 65 years commitment assuming that better nuclear technology was available now, which it isn't) when we should be massively investing into renewables today. It's mind boggling irresponsibility, really.
50
@47 - On land, not fertilizing oceans: "Altogether, enhanced weathering via the dissolution of fine- grained olivine powder on land in the humid tropics seems to be a CDR technique, which might sequester up to 1 Pg of C per year directly."
51
@48 - Good catch but the entire argument is especially ignorant and a gross characterization anyway: nobody advocates burning more methane. On the contrary, using gas turbines for rare peak load needs does not amount to "more natural gas in power generation".
52
@44 - "Nuclear fission is far cleaner than coal SO LONG AS the waste products are managed properly."

that's a lot of waste product management that pretty much remains to be entirely done:

To produce the 25 tonnes or so of uranium fuel needed to keep your average reactor going for a year entails the extraction of half a million tonnes of waste rock and over 100,000 tonnes of mill tailings. These are toxic for hundreds of thousands of years. The conversion plant will generate another 144 tonnes of solid waste and 1343 cubic metres of liquid waste.

Contamination of local water supplies around uranium mines and processing plants has been documented in Brazil, Colorado, Texas, Australia, Namibia and many other sites. To supply even a fraction of the power stations the industry expects to be online worldwide in 2020 would mean generating 50 million tonnes of toxic radioactive residues every single year.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree…

54
@53, what's the global economic impact of NOT doing it, dipshit? What's the global economic impact of four billion people starving to death on your TV? What's the global economic impact of world war? You know there's going to be a world war over this, right? You know that thing in Syria? That's just the tip of the iceberg. It was caused by global warming (mass starvation caused by probably permanent crop failures in the remote parts of Syria).
56
Mehlman, your posts as a group seem to say "well, i know we're on the road to hell, but it's smoother than any of our other options, so let's just keep on our merry way!"
57
@55 - You have got it backward as per usual: the cost of fossil fuel use is much higher than that of transitioning to renewables TODAY.

The 2006 Stern Report on the Economics of Climate Change put the annual costs of transitioning to a renewable energy economy at about 1% of global GDP; about $850 billion. Is that a big bet? Well, current annual global subsidies to fossil fuels are about $1.9 trillion [as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF)]. The Climate Vulnerable Forum Report in 2012 estimated that humanity is now incurring about $1.2 trillion in losses every year due to climate change, and rising. That is 1.6% of global GDP. Oil consuming nations would spend a record $2 trillion on oil in 2012, $500 billion on natural gas, and $500 billion on coal. So the annual costs to continue using fossil fuels is over $6 trillion, whereas we need to spend only $850 billion to switch to renewable energy and fix climate change.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/c…
59
@58 - Actually the Chinese were planning to invest half a trillion in renewables during 2011-2015 and convert/develop 20% of all energy requirement by 2020, so it isn't accurate to say they aren't using them. Implementing renewables still demands some R&D both to improve energy efficiency, energy storage and transport, and develop a smart grid, and I don't know that China can do all the work on its own. I also don't know about the specific mix of power density that China could implement considering its consumption per capita and population density, and whether that would require more than a major effort. Fossil fuels also have a much higher energy density than renewables which probably confers some advantage especially for developing nations while efficiency isn't optimized.
61
@60: You are basically the Earthworm from "James and the Giant Peach".
62
Nuclear is not safe nor is it necessary. Accidents happen no matter how extensive our engineering efforts are to mitigate and prevent accidents. With nuclear, the dangers include making large swaths of the planet uninhabitable for generations. That is too large of a risk.

We already have the technology to make renewable energy a viable alternative. The decentralization possible with renewables is why capitalist industry has neglected to bring production up to the scale we need. Also we're approaching this problem from the wrong angle. We talk about filling our energy "needs" which are really energy desires with no real evaluation of what level of use is really necessary or responsible.
63
@60 Now you can ask yourself why you were under the impression that China was doing nothing.

Mark Jacobson's plan for all renewable energy: http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacob…

Jacobson arguing against using nuclear ("We don't need it") in a TED debate with Stewart Brand: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK8ccWSZk…

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