If Mike Madigan wants it to pass, it will pass. He runs the House and people do as he says. But he has little use for Quinn, so he might punt. Cullerton, in the Senate, is Madigan's boy, though, and nothing would be done there that wasn't OK with Madigan. Finally, one of the city's most powerful Aldermen, Dick Mell, is the father of an out lesbian legislator, and that might sway Madigan as well. But Illinois is not a normal democracy: we're a hereditary kleptocracy (Madigan's daughter Lisa is AG and might be primarying against Quinn for Gov) and Madigan is the chief thief.

Ballotpedia is a handy quick ref for current composition of state legislative bodies; this link is for the lower houses (House of Representatives in the case of Illinois):

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Pa…

After substantial gains in the Nov. 2012 election, they have what should be a veto-proof Democratic majority of 60% (71 Democrats, 47 Republicans).

@2: and ALL of those Dems will do as Madigan says. Just depends on what he wants to say. He might let some from conservative/bigot districts vote No if he has enough to get it passed without them, for cover from the right. But the last remap gerrymandered the state in favor of Dems, so that might not even be necessary.

What's really sad about Illinois politics is that, just like Chicago Fan says, it's more about personalities than legislation. If Madigan wants this done, it'll get done. If he wants to wait and hand this victory to his daughter, the governor, than it might not happen right now.

My best friend is perennially lovelorn but I'm hoping for this to get passed so I can get drunk at his wedding on some not-so-distant day.

@6
Not without amending the state constitution. Illinois doesn't have a provision for a binding referendum. What the legislature does stays done.

Jealous! Both New Jersey House and Congress passed gay marriage, but we're blessed with Chris Christie. Polls show more than half of voters support gay marriage, but advocates don't like the cost and risk of putting it on the ballot. And "If the Legislature wants to move forward with same-sex marriage, it must override Christie's veto, which requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers. The Legislature has never overturned a Christie veto because Republican lawmakers - even some who initially supported the bill in question - always back the governor." We were close with Corzine, who replaced "gay American" McGreevey. But maybe this will all be moot come June...

@4 Why would daddy Madigan want to punt this into next year or after? That makes no sense to me since that would mean this would be an issue in the Democratic primary and Quinn could use it against daughter Madigan, especially if the bills delay was so transparent. Gay rights supporters would probably overwhelmingly support Quinn if that was the case.

I'd think the Madigans would want this issue dealt with so that they could peel off gay rights supporters in the primary.