Comments

1
Yay?
2
I'd like to point out (or ask why) the link that shows up on The Stranger's webpage for the Progressive Voter Guide is fucking split on chater schools. (not cheat sheet but some outside website)

Why isn't there a bigger case being made against charter schools on the part of the left?
3
No link to the Washington Poll so we can look at it ourselves?
4
@3: It's not up yet. I'm at the press conference now.
5
surprised the pot initiative is doing so well. Marriage equality will pass, I really don't see that "bias" being as much of an issue in washington.
6
...the pollster, Matt Barreto of the University of Washington, adjusts for the likelihood that some poll respondents may not feel comfortable revealing their true opposition to marriage equality.


What the fuck? He read their minds? Just added some made up fudge factor? Assumed the same error as the old Prop 8 polls? Reminds me of the way Fox News is making magic numbers up to make things look less dire for their guy.
7
Eli, do you know the D/R/I party affiliation split?
8
700 people who answered land lines and sat through an insulting "poll"? Yeah, I'm taking that as gospel.
9
@2 No kidding. This will pull money from the public school system, amounts to a subsidy for the rich, and is fooling people with the whole "it's only 40 schools" thing (any school can convert to charger with a majority of teachers or parents agreeing).

It's worse than privatizing our schools - it's privatizing our schools using public money. Middle-income parents will be paying taxes to send rich kids to private schools, while their kids get worse public educations.
10
@6 The difference is that in this case the pollsters are trying to make the poll MORE accurate rather than less accurate like Fox does.

The published both their straight poll results and their modified poll results, so it's not like they are hiding anything.

We'll find out after the election whether they were right or not.
11
@6 - it's based on the Bradley effect. If you know anything about polling and past elections, you'd know that going into the election for LA mayor, Bradley was ahead by a comfortable margin. In the end, he lost. It was because when polled, people wanted to seem not-bigoted, and would vote for an African-American. But in the privacy of the poll booth, voted for the white guy.
12
@8 if this poll is tied to land lines than I bet you can add +2% to +3% in favor of anything lefty or progressive on this. Traditional land lines are still the province of older, more settled moderate and conservative voters.

So:

* Marriage up 60-33 OR up 55-43
* Inslee up 48-43
* Pot up 58-35
* Obama up 60-33
13
@2 because Fuse Washington is a gutless organization led by cowards. The "education reform" movement is led by the right, yet "progressive" groups can't bring themselves to loudly denounce it? Then again, groups like Fuse have been suspiciously silent when it comes to rallying their base against McKenna.
14
Isn't this the way The Stranger wanted us to vote?
15
@8, @12 - did either of you check out the link?

"calling both landlines and cell phones"
16
Vote!
17
@11

Yeah, I've heard of the Bradley Effect. Knowing it might be there is not the same as knowing how large the error is. If you could read minds you wouldn't need a poll.
18
@17 - also, he uses the poll he took just before passage of R-71, and compares his results to the actual votes a few days later. He's added questions to the current poll to help elicit responses from respondents. If there is hesitation, even if they've previously said yes, he counts them as a no. In this manner, he won't over-estimate the results.
19
I'm encouraged by these poll results, but please don't be lulled into complacency. We need to make sure we win and by a comfortable enough margin to avoid an automatic recount. We do this by getting out the vote. WA United for Marriage still needs you to phone bank or canvass. If you were considering doing so, don't let this poll change your mind and make you feel like it's not necessary. Please go volunteer. We CAN win and successfully defend marriage equality in WA state.
20
@6: This pollster actually goes about it in a pretty smart way: "It asked voters if they were uncomfortable about any of the topics raised and also if they lied" on any of their answers. They then adjust some of the answers based on known correlations (initial research that this is based on I believe was about the Bradley affect/race). [Description of the methodology is here, and refers to the previous round of this poll: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/… ]
21
Ugh I knew the morons in this state would pass the 2/3rds shit and charters. Oh well, maybe they can be overruled in court
22
@15 Of course I didn't read the link! Eli put so much info into the post, why bother reading the original info?

Honestly, I had always thought that cell phones were off limits to pollsters and telemarketers. I guess times have changed. Thanks for the tip.
I still have to wonder about people that will sit through one of those phone calls. If I do answer that call, it's ended with a quick "fuck off".
23
A margin of erro
24
I have this gross feeling that McKenna is going to win. Hopefully I'm wrong. Although Jay Inslee doesn't really impress me either.
25
Charter schools are not a left/right issue, which is why you don't see a clear answer.

When wealthy (primarily white) people have a choice about where to send their kids to school and others who can't afford private school or the ability to live wherever they want cannot, that's an equality issue.
26
@22 - I admit to sitting thru a few this season. Other incoming calls sometimes go to voicemail. It entirely depends on how I'm feeling when the phone rings.
27
@15 @22 a lot of younger voters in the 18-29 age range don't answer blocked calls.

Ever.

The ones who too tend to be more gullible and more likely to vote for Republicants.
28
@21 probably this year.
29
Heh. Ref 74 is polling almost exactly the same as Obama.
30
The days when pollsters made no adjustments for cell phone response rates are behind us.

Their weightings still aren't perfect, but they know it, and increase margins of error accordingly.

It's a little weird to see politics-blog-commenters assume that people who earn a living doing polls have never heard of cellphone sampling issues.
31
Shame about 1240. At least if 502 passes the state will at least take in SOME money rather than pissing it all away on rich kids.

Please wait...

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