This is a well-managed campaign that will be won or lost on GOTV. If we stay home (because polls say all is lost!!) or get raptured we lose. Polls are useless BS at this state, especially if the mean differs wildly from this result.
Unfortunately the "apples-to-oranges" comparison of likely voter polls to registered voter polls doesn't make the news look any better. Likely voter polls are far more accurate than registered voter polls so this just means that the previous large margins in favor of gay marriage were a mirage. Because even though a majority of the general populace IS in favor, some of us young 'uns are too lazy to get off our asses and vote! And now the poll is taking that into account.
The a reject R74 group has been holding signs on the overpasses walkway on 405. "Same sex couples already have equal rights in WA" That's probably the best message for the east-siders who are pro-gayish but territorial about the word marriage.
I emailed Washington United for Marriage about 3 weeks ago and asked them if they were going to respond hard to the bigoted ads that were sure to come. They responded to me essentially saying that harsh ads in response were not effective, according to their research. And that was it. I had a bad feeling that they were going to do the same shit as the dumbasses in California and their email response confirmed my worst fear. At that point I stopped donating any money--I'm simply no longer going to throw my hard earned money away to an organization that has no interest in really fighting back. I will not be surprised if R-74 is rejected on Nov. 6.
The poll says that it will pass unless least 5 out of 6 undecided voters have to break for Reject. If only 4 out of 6 go that way, it passes 51-49. If they split evenly, it's 52-48.
Five out of six is a tall order. My money says 98% of the undecideds are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject, and they'll split right down the middle.
Elway says clearly here "the sample frame was different" -- because voters and likely voters are not the same thing at all. Yet they still argue that support has declined? That can only be valid if last month's sample was also likely voters.
Otherwise, were just seeing the usual older, more conservative tilt of likely voters, not a real decrease in support or a real increase in opposition.
Click on the link and read the PDF. If the undecided split any less than 5 out of 6 Reject, it has to get 50% + at least 1 vote for Approved. Win.
Elway's report says 4% of those committed are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject. Read it yourself. It's reasonable to assume that most of the dummies who can't make up their minds are a lot more confused. But even if they're not confused, simple math says it's going to pass unless this poll is utterly wrong. or unless a bizarrely high number of undecided break against it.
You really have me mixed up with somebody else. Links to YouTube. Really. Probably some other Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn you know. Lot of anger in you too.
If people were interested in hanging out on that ever-so-pleasant 405 walkway overpass holding signs in support, is there somewhere we can pick up signs? Or do we make our own? My art sucks. :|
I've been busting my ass down at the Tacoma office 3-4 nights a week for the past month, and all it gets me is a 2% loss?
Wow, you guys sure know how to demoralize somebody. Way to make me feel like all my hard work and donating every spare dollar to this thing has been a complete waste.
What are you going to do for an encore?
If this was intended to scare people into being motivated enough to work harder, have you stopped to think about all the people who have been busting our asses and what this little story says to us?
@21, don't be demoralized! There was never any question the polls would start to get close once the antis started their misleading scare ads - and the work you and other volunteers have been doing has helped keep us ahead. Now everyone who supports needs to step up and donate time or money.
I just gave $50, and emailed every one of my relatives in WA, begging them to vote "yes". My family are a pretty conservative bunch, and I may have just outed myself to a number of elderly relatives, but this is just too important for me to stay silent if there's any chance my words might sway them.
We HAVE to get voter turnout in King County. We HAVE to. King County has a history of apathetic, pitiful voter turnouts - 30%, 26% (in the primary), even 42% for presidential years. Whereas the red counties manage to get 70%, 75%, 80% of their 1200 voters to mail in their ballots. King County is the 500-lb. gorilla of Washington State politics. If we turn out the King County voters, this will win in a walk. If we don't, it WILL FAIL.
What have you done to encourage someone to get their ballot in today? I'm offering stamps to those of my friends who whine about poll taxes. I'm reminding people daily to get that ballot marked and get it sent in. We have GOT to turn out the King County voters this election. This one really, really matters.
Did I type that out loud?
What counts is getting off your ass.
Or hype for the sake of page hits. Whichev.
@8: which overpasses?
Thanks for that poll link. A tidbit:
Top reason people select McKenna...Philosophy.
Top reason people select Inslee...he's a Democrat.
End of transmission.
Five out of six is a tall order. My money says 98% of the undecideds are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject, and they'll split right down the middle.
Elway says clearly here "the sample frame was different" -- because voters and likely voters are not the same thing at all. Yet they still argue that support has declined? That can only be valid if last month's sample was also likely voters.
Otherwise, were just seeing the usual older, more conservative tilt of likely voters, not a real decrease in support or a real increase in opposition.
I bet your last sentence is also a lie, and we unfortunately haven't heard the last from you.
P.s. to Bailo: go run away and hide now, like you always do as soon as anyone calls out your incessant stupidity.
You're confused. YouTube videos? When? Ever?
Click on the link and read the PDF. If the undecided split any less than 5 out of 6 Reject, it has to get 50% + at least 1 vote for Approved. Win.
Elway's report says 4% of those committed are confused about whether they support Approve or Reject. Read it yourself. It's reasonable to assume that most of the dummies who can't make up their minds are a lot more confused. But even if they're not confused, simple math says it's going to pass unless this poll is utterly wrong. or unless a bizarrely high number of undecided break against it.
You really have me mixed up with somebody else. Links to YouTube. Really. Probably some other Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn you know. Lot of anger in you too.
Wow, you guys sure know how to demoralize somebody. Way to make me feel like all my hard work and donating every spare dollar to this thing has been a complete waste.
What are you going to do for an encore?
If this was intended to scare people into being motivated enough to work harder, have you stopped to think about all the people who have been busting our asses and what this little story says to us?
Polls are just a SnapShot.
the Trend is what is important.
and the Trend is, like, diving into the Shitter at Mach 2......
UWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!....
.
we blame Mitt.
and his DEVASTATING dismantling of Obama in the first debate.
that is when the earth tipped on its axis........
What have you done to encourage someone to get their ballot in today? I'm offering stamps to those of my friends who whine about poll taxes. I'm reminding people daily to get that ballot marked and get it sent in. We have GOT to turn out the King County voters this election. This one really, really matters.