Comments

1
From: Tim Eyman, I-1033 co-sponsor

INITIATIVE 1033: LOOKIN' GOOD IN THE POLLS

posted at http://soundpolitics.com/archives/013367…

Polls, polls, so many polls. On September 22nd, a Rasmussen poll of I-1033's ballot title (This measure would limit growth of certain state, county and city revenue to annual inflation and population growth, not including voter-approved revenue increases. Revenue collected above the limit would reduce property tax levies) among 500 likely voters showed it at 61% yes, 31% no, 8% undecided. That's a 30 point lead with just a few weeks to go. YIPPEE!!!

Here's the breakdown of that poll by demographic group (some darn interesting numbers here):

Today, KING 5's SURVEYUSA had these results among likely voters: 45% yes, 32% no, 22% no certain. But they didn't read voters I-1033's ballot title, instead they asked "Initiative 1033 would limit spending for state, county, and local governments." So without being told that I-1033 lowers property taxes, that I-1033 allows governments to grow at inflation and population growth, that I-1033 allows bigger increases with voter approval -- all information that's in I-1033's ballot title -- even so, I-1033's way ahead.

Stuart Elway's poll, which consistently understates the level of support our initiatives receive on election day, has I-1033's ballot title results at 46% yes, 22% no, 32% undecided (don't forget, those undecided's gotta go somewhere).

So while opponents spend millions of Washington DC's dirty dollars spreading their threats, lies, and scare tactics, they're clearly in a hole.

In 12 years, I've never seen an initiative that fits the times as well as Initiative 1033 does. Voters seem especially eager to send a message of fiscal discipline to the politicians.

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Sounds to me like I-1033 is in trouble as it doesn't even have 50% support. Polls mean little now since the No campaign is jsut getting their message out. And as voters learn more about what the Initiative actually does, support drops.

1. I-1033 IS A BUDGET FREEZE. There is no "growth" in public services if all you can do is buy the same service next year at its inflated price. A similar measure in Colorado resulted in continued severe cuts in public services. Voters recently suspended it because of all the cuts.

2. I-1033 IS A WEALTH TRANSFER SCHEME. Renters who comprise 35% of households in the state will pay the same sales taxes and other fees as before but will get no tax rebate. One third of the tax rebate goes to corporations and businesses, not homeowners. And what homeowners get is not dependent on the sales taxes they paid but on the amount of property they own. I-1033 is a reverse Robin Hood scheme taking tax dollars from renters and using it to pay property taxes for property owners. The winners are wealthy property owners.

3. I-1033 TAKES AWAY LOCAL CONTROL OF PUBLIC SERVICES BY ELECTED OFFICIALS AND REPLACES IT WITH BUDGETING BY REFERENDUM. This is a wasteful and costly process that has contributed to California's budget woes.

I-1033 is a scheme dreamed up by conservative anti-tax, anti government fanatic Tim Eyman to sneak in another measure to reduce government without consideration for the costs or impacts on the public.

Times are tough enough for the public and I-1033 will make them worse by locking us into a permanent recession. Vote No on I-1033.

3
as stated earlier: KING 5's poll didn't read voters I-1033's ballot title, instead they asked "Initiative 1033 would limit spending for state, county, and local governments." So without being told that I-1033 lowers property taxes, that I-1033 allows governments to grow at inflation and population growth, that I-1033 allows bigger increases with voter approval -- all information that's in I-1033's ballot title -- even so, I-1033's way ahead.
4
1033 is going to pass, because people can't be bothered to understand issues, and all of us except sociopathic rich fucks like Eyman are going to suffer for it.

Good news on 71, though, or at least I hope so. I'm sort of surprised the margins are so close, but then, it's confusing as fuck that they kind of switched what we were supposed to think about it, so I can't help but think that some of that narrowness is due to the fact that a lot of people probably just don't know what they're voting for. That's kind of scary.
5
Oh for frack's sake, SurveyUSA-- FIX YOUR LIKELY VOTER MODEL. It has been wrong for the past 2 election cycles, and it's going to be even more wrong this time around. Moreover, fix your methodology, it's too strict and full of the admittedly wrong "not sure" becomes "no" error.

I won't talk about R-71, but I won't hesitate to say that it's a good poll but we still need to GOTV hardcore.

I-1033 is a very very VERY bad poll-- to me. Tim should be cheering because this is a very clear report that people are not as averse to his measures as news outlets would lead you to believe.
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@1 is a dickweed.

That said, ask every woman you know to vote, and anyone you know in Seattle to vote.

If you're out, ask all your friends and relatives and colleagues to vote, because the chances of them not minding gays being married goes way up when they can put a face to the decision.

Just remind people that if we had 1033 we'd be as screwed as California is right now.
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Will is right. The best way for the progressive vote to win is to inflate the female vote, and suppress the male vote.

I think a genius way to get every single statewide election to go progressive in every race is to put a initiative outlawing tampons in every election cycle.
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Please remind everyone you know to vote.

It is important to remember that in the last election only about 50% of registered voters in San Francisco voted. We must not be complacent. We need every person to make sure they turn in their ballots.

When you get yours start calling your friends and keep calling them every day until they tell you that they sent in their ballot. Yes you will be a bit of a nudge but it is a small price to pay to ensure LGBT and senior couples have the protections they deserve.
9
Corgis for GOTV!!!

As an added incentive to approve, if R-71 passes, I will personally go to any location Baconcat dictates and eat a slice of raw bacon from his swimsuit area.
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Corgis ftw!
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47% of all Americans pay no federal income taxes.
Zero.
Nada.
Zilch.
Most of them voted for Obama.
And worry that the rich don't pay their fair share.
And want the Federal government to provide their health care.
While they pay Zero Federal taxes.

1033 is a little like that.
The half of the country that pays all the taxes is getting tired of carrying the freeloaders.
And aren't going to take it anymore.

Now the freeloaders are starting to panic.
1033 will Devastate Government Budgets!!
Good.

Hipster Panic.
Bloated Liberal Welfare State Budgets- DEVASTATED!!!!

It's all good.
12
For Ref. 71 you said "548 voters" and you left off the fact that it is 548 "likely voters". This is a very important distinction because the turnout will be so low for this election that if you had only a slight edge after polling just registered voters than appoving Ref. 71 would be in serious trouble.
You forgot to mention that King County is now vote by mail. Which will probably help the election turnout. In King County over 33% turned out for the primary which is not too bad for an election that expected less than 20% participation but many of the smaller conservative counties had a much much higher turnout.
13
Weepy post-loss candlelight vigil, here I come! Hope I hook up!
14
Buy stamps. Have drink events with friends where you buy a pitcher of beer or cider and they fill out ballots and mail em in.

Party!

But vote.
15
I'm so sick of the uneducated masses getting to vote on things they don't understand.
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What's up with the 35-49 yo crowd? In the R-71 polling they are against the referendum, hell the 65+ crowd is at least plurality in favor of the referendum.
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Re: Ref-71. Don't get too comfortable with polls that show the gays winning. Almost every time gay rights have been put up for popular vote, we have lost. One big problem is that--on this issue in particular--people often lie to pollsters. They don't want to sound bigoted so they say they're for gay rights, but in the privacy of the voting booth (or their kitchen table), they often vote differently.

I hope these stealth voters don't end up spoiling the election and rejecting R-71, but it has happened many times before in other states, and it could happen here.
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For either of these, if the outcome is unfavorable, is there any chance of having the outcome overturned in court?
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Sarajane46th: The No on 1033 campaign is underfunded and late. The polls show it passing, but 22% are still undecided. That means it's up to each of us. Practice your 1-minute elevator speech. Explain it to family and friends. Bring it up. Volunteer. Candidates, unless you want to govern under this draconian awful, terrible, very bad initiative, include it in every campaign appearance. Every elected official should issue a press release. Above all, don't believe Tim Eyman's message that it's a done deal. It's not.
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Sarajane46th: The No on 1033 campaign is underfunded and late. The polls show it passing, but 22% are still undecided. That means it's up to each of us. Practice your 1-minute elevator speech. Explain it to family and friends. Bring it up. Volunteer. Candidates, unless you want to govern under this draconian awful, terrible, very bad initiative, include it in every campaign appearance. Every elected official should issue a press release. Above all, don't believe Tim Eyman's message that it's a done deal. It's not.
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The more people learn about I-1033 the more that vote no. Tim is hoping people don't learn any more about it than reading the ballot title. The ballot title is misleading and doesn't tell a lot of what I-1033 really will do. Here are 3 reasons you can use to explain why voters should vote No on Initiative 1033:

1. I-1033 IS A BUDGET FREEZE. There is no "growth" in public services if all you can do is buy the same service next year at its inflated price. A similar measure in Colorado resulted in continued severe cuts in public services. Voters recently suspended it because of all the cuts.

2. I-1033 IS A WEALTH TRANSFER SCHEME. Renters who comprise 35% of households in the state will pay the same sales taxes and other fees as before but will get no tax rebate. One third of the tax rebate goes to corporations and businesses not homeowners. And what homeowners get is not dependent on the sales taxes they paid but on the amount of property they own. I-1033 is a reverse Robin Hood scheme taking tax dollars from renters and using it to pay property taxes for property owners. The winners are wealthy property owners.

3. I-1033 TAKES AWAY LOCAL CONTROL OF PUBLIC SERVICES BY ELECTED OFFICIALS AND REPLACES IT WITH BUDGETING BY REFERENDUM. This is a wasteful and costly process that has contributed to California's budget woes.

I-1033 is a scheme dreamed up by conservative anti-tax, anti government fanatic Tim Eyman to sneak in another measure to reduce government without consideration for the costs or impacts on the public.

Times are tough enough for the public and I-1033 will make them worse by locking us into a permanent recession. Vote No on I-1033.
22
Spread the word and tell people to vote NO on Eyman's latest scheme to pick your pockets for the wealthy. Because I-1033 is really a wealth transfer scheme, taking tax dollars paid by renters and others without property and using it to help pay the property taxes of the wealthy.

Here are some of the things your tax dollars go for now:

educating our children
providing health care for seniors and children
mental health services
repairing roads and bridges
keeping parks and libraries open
paying for police and fire protection
paying for courts and jails
cleaning up Puget Sound
providing clean water and clean air
sidewalks and bike paths
affordable public transit
emergency services
services for seniors and disabled
and the list goes on.

But here is what your tax dollars above Eyman's recession level limit will go for if I-1033 passes:
Paying property taxes
That's all.
23
Actually your headline is misleading. The poll does not show I-1033 passing, it only shows it leading at this point in time. Having a 45% yes vote in a poll is not 50% plus 1 which is needed to pass if it were an election. It does show that a simple reading of Eyman's cherry picked ballot title sounds good to some people. The more voters learn about the hidden language and details contained in the fine print of the actual law Eyman is proposing, the more they decide not to support it.

The fatal flaw that remains in the initiative is that it contains a significant tax shift, transferring the tax burden unto non-property owners and lower income folks while benefiting those with property by reducing their share of the tax burden.

It is a radical measure premised on the Eyman mantra that we can never reduce taxes enough. The conservative Tax Foundation already says that we rank in the bottom third of states in terms of state and local tax burden, coming in at 35th out of 50. Eyman would not be satisfied until we were the 50th lowest state.

Remember at some point there are diminishing returns for reduced taxes, just as they are diminishing returns for over taxation. The question is the proper balance. We are already on the low end and in the midst of a serious recession. Initiative 1033 will keep us locked in recession economics by freezing public spending. It is overkill and not needed. Vote No on I-1033.
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ACCEPT Referendum 71. People have a right to live how they want to live.
http://tinyurl.com/poc4h5
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In WA state they want to continue treating LGBT families as SUB-human - SUB-American. Gary Randall and Larry Stickney are behind this crime, with Stephen Pidgeon defecating on civil law and justice itself. Meanwhile, our "representatives" are all hiding; everyone from the Governor on down the list . . .

So if Referendum 71 is REJECTED in November, I seriously doubt that every single young Queer in Washington State will be fighting back against the Christian Right Terrorists and Bullies by signing more referendums and making more donations next year, and the year after, and the year after, and the year after, and the year after, and the.......

Make no mistake - Those "christians" who threaten and intimidate us with Referendum 71 are the BULLIES. We have a right to defend ourselves and our precious family and children, esp. when it is PAINFULLY OBVIOUS that our own government has no problem CROSSING THE LINE and putting up white sheets to hide those who want to harm us. Government also wants to continue this incremental state-by-state, right-by-right BULLSHIT for decades and decades and decades and decades and ............

When we are prevented from having a FAIR FIGHT, it almost demands that it's time to resort to some "OLD SCHOOL" justice. I HAVE HAD IT WITH PUBLIC VOTES ON MY DUE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS!

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REJECT Referendum 71; People have the right to a clean, perverted free country. Let homos do what they want (in the privacy of their own homes), but they don't have the right to shove it in moral people's faces. They also don't have the right to expect benefits for their immorality.

Where does it say anywhere in our consititution that people who practice perversion should have special rights? If this is true then a lot of people who are in jail should be let out. What about their rights???

There are a lot of people in jail because they did something that made them feel good. Shouldn't they (like homos) have the right to keep on doing them without being picked on? Think about it. If you are going to accept the perversion of homosexualtiy then what about all of the other perversions out there?

Maybe we should approve of prostitution, let them form a union and have special benefits. Why not, what is the difference? There IS none.
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IN REPLY TO "Chef Thunder"
It is important to remember that in the last election only about 50% of registered voters in San Francisco voted. We must not be complacent. We need every person to make sure they turn in their ballots.

********************************

DON'T worry, I will be voting and I will be voting "REJECTED"!!! Along with all of the other moral people out there.

***********************************************
IN REPLY TO "Very Bad Homo"
I'm so sick of the uneducated masses getting to vote on things they don't understand.
*************************************

I Understand R-71 Very Well And I Will Be Voting "Rejected"!!! So much for being uneducated. Having an opinion opposite of you doesn't mean that person is undeducated they are just "moral".

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I always like to compare the amount of rights that a country affords to gays, with its GDP per capita.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cou…

The more we can see past our superstitions and accept others' unique styles of living, the more successful we are as a society blah blah blah. Obviously preaching to the choir here on this site.

Though SKrose, wasn't it really hard for you to immigrate into the States from whatever downtrodden West African nation you're from? Or did your edumacatedness help you prevail?

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Dear Theotime,

If you think insults (from you and all of the other gay bigots out there) will change someones "moral" opinions you are wrong. I will "still" be voting against the perversion and immorality of R-71.

And even though it is "none" of your business I was born in this country.

SKrose
30
"47% of all Americans pay no federal income taxes."

lol you just keep on posting those sourceless stats, boy-o.

"Hipster Panic."

Haha yeah man let's show those freeloading hipster fags! With their weird music and stupid hair cuts!

FYI, most hipsters are middle class/upper middle class and pay their taxes just fine. And being middle class/upper middle class young adults, they will also feel relatively little impact from government cuts.
31
If you had not posted a racial slurr I would have sided with you, but in this case we are at war
32
Dear SKrose,
You poor soul. You feel your moral is great compare to the homosexual. The fact is that you are narrow minded and hater. Just like those people who stoned Christ at the cross. You have no moral to treat people with respect and open heart No matter who or what they are. They may be people from the rich or poor, gay or straight. I am straight and I will vote for APPROVE! to give people the protection from people like you.

Please wait...

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