Good news for Darcy!

Maybe part of the conventional wisdom that Delbene has a better shot than Darcy has to do with the fact that Delbene got 47.95% against Reichert in 2010, a Republican wave year, while Darcy got 47.22% against Reichert in 2008, a Democratic wave year. For all of Goldy's statements that Delbene is a crappy campaigner (and to be fair, they aren't entirely without merit), Delbene did do better than Darcy did in the 8th in a tougher year.

@1, the in-kind contribution from Goldy?

@2 Really? That's your comeback? And Darcy got 48.54 percent in 2006, but quibbling over tenths of a point against a different opponent in a different district in a different year is not much of an argument.

How about this? Darcy has been off the air since November of 2008, while Suzan spent $4 million in 2010 and another $2 million this summer, and they're still within the margin error. And both poll even with Koster.

So what is it that DelBene inherently has that makes her such a better candidate other than her money?

It's entirely relevant! The 8th was basically the only seat to swing to the Democrats in 2010. And 2006 was also a Democratic wave year, in case you forgot. I think DelBene would have beaten Reichert in 2006 or 2008. Same with Ruderman and Hobbs if they were in the same district.

Darcy Burner can't connect with voters. DelBene isn't great at it in person but least her ads do it effectively. When I was at the 1st CD caucus, Burner started her speech with some long rant about women's suffrage in Afghanistan. That's great and all, but that's not going to win you a seat in Congress.

And what has she done lately? Opened her big mouth about gun control? Gun control is not a winning issue in WA-01. In fact I'd say it's quite obviously a losing issue, especially when you call for an adult conversation and immediately tell the other side to go to hell.

Koster has barely done anything. He knows he's got a spot in the general. And I guarantee you that Republicans are hoping for a Burner victory right now, because they know she's easy to beat. It's so easy to make 30 second ad convincing voters she's dumb and unqualified. It will be a breeze.

I like Darcy Burner, but there's no way she wins in the 1st. She has no appeal to the rural parts of the district, which are similar to the parts of the old 8th that she failed to connect with.

I'm not sold that DelBene can connect in those areas, either, but her money goes a long way toward making it possible. I prefer Ruderman (who has actual legislative experience and comes across like a regular person instead of a Microsoft millionaire), and voted for her already, but she's got a big hill to climb when people are already voting and she's polling ten points behind the Democratic frontrunners. Hobbs (the only other experienced Democrat) could appeal across the district but he's too conservative for my tastes, and is too far behind in any case.

I'll be really upset if we lose this district, and I have to be "represented" by Koster. I just hope that the completely inexperienced and Eastside millionaire liberal that wins the nomination (both leading Dems fit the bill) can take him on in November with all the cash the national GOP will be tossing this way.

I can't for the life of me understand this love for Darcy. Goldy - #2's point is absolutely valid, but let me go further. Not only did Darcy fail to garner over 50% in the best Dem performing elections in decades, she failed to do so in a district that was demonstrably higher democratic performing than the new 1st District.

RE: What does Suzan have that Darcy doesn't? EASY: The ability to win a district that is split 50/50 because she doesn't take every opportunity to demagogue every progressive pet issue in the Daily Kos or wherever. (oh yeah, and money) I mean - "The NRA can go to hell" great - I agree. But have you ever even BEEN to Lake Stevens, Snohomish? East King and East Snohomish County?

Well, if Suzan wins the November election, I guess I'll have been proven wrong. Hope so. But we'll see.