posted by November 4 at 16:40 PMon
This is an early-poll-closing state that the Stranger Election Control Board suggests you keep a very close eye on. If Obama wins IndianaŚwell, that’s generally thought to be the landslide scenario.
Indiana was the place where Obama had all that trouble with “working class whites” during the primary with Hillary Clinton. He couldn’t quite beat her there because of that. So, the thinking goes, if Obama has improved his standing enough among that demographic to take Indiana, then he’s also going to easily take Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and a number of other places that are, relatively speaking, much easier going for him.
With that in mind, while we wait for the call on Indiana, some early parsing of county-by-county results from Nate Silver:
Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry — which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.
Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%