Comments on Department of Counting Chickens
Hey, Dan, did you already read Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls?
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
I offer this out of consideration for your health.
The good news is, if you want stock in the McCain campaign, it's selling at firesale prices.
Can someone please explain to me what this means? Is it a probability to bet on? It makes no sense. 1.1% of what?
O'Reilly gives up:
http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/
@3 dude, I'm sure you have the (internet) skills:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html
@3 The CHZA
www.fivethirtyeight.com > FAQ >
Step 6. Simulations and Win Probabilities > What is Win % or Win Probability?
A number of statistical gurus before work were discussing the methodology used by 538.
Very interesting, but probably boring to the layman.
Last night my son showed me, how it was almost impossible for McCain to win.
@3 Long story short, 538 runs 10,000 election simulations and of those, McCain only wins 1.1% of them (or 110 times).